There is no reason to me that Ricky Romero shouldn’t be in at least tier 3. Let alone above guys like Beckett, and Shields in tier 2. He’s young, durable, and has shown real improvement each of the last 3 years.
What improvement are you seeing? His K%, BB% and GB% were all essentially the same in 2010 and 2011 and his SIERA and xFIP were remarkably consistent.
Comment by Mike Podhorzer — November 3, 2011 @ 11:45 pm
I like his improved Outside zone swing % over the last three seasons: 23% to 28% to 32% this last season. Also the gradual improvement in his BB/9 over those seasons, from 4.0 to 3.5 to 3.2, I don’t think can go unnoticed.
The number I like the best is his Pitches Per Inning Pitched which has plummeted the last three seasons from 16.8 to 15.4 to 15.0 in 2011. Good for 12th in the Bigs this season, and only second behind James Shields in the AL East. Some names on the P/IP list just ahead of Romero this year are Shields, Halladay Lee, Hamels, Kershaw, and Tim Hudson, elite company.
Combine that marked improvement with the fact that he will be entering his age 27 season in 2012, I like this guy who has now proven he can throw 210+ IP over the likes of the uninspiring Scherzer, and Brandon Morrow, not to mention the Beckett in tier 2 who, imo has too great of peaks and valleys to be truly counted on.
In addition, not sure if this should be taken with a grain of salt or what, but for what it’s worth, Romero’s QS% was at 78% tied with Halladay and Lee this year, and only behind Weaver, Verlander, Cain. All while doing it in the AL East.
Now, I’m sure he is due for regression, I don’t think he repeats his 2.92 ERA, but this is a guy who I believe is in at least tier 3 going into the season.