FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. i’m surprised how low dan uggla is. if the predictions are accurate there are going to be a ton of people overpaying for him.

    Comment by johnnycuff — November 15, 2011 @ 12:47 pm

  2. How about my lil buddy Jose Altuve? He is included in the James projections with a line of 64/46/10/19/.297, which looks as though it would put him in the middle of the pack here.

    Comment by Chris R — November 15, 2011 @ 1:17 pm

  3. He’s especially low if you are in a league that counts walks. If he plays in 2012 like he did in the second half of 2011, that comes out to some pretty hefty numbers (35 hrs, etc.).

    Comment by Luke — November 15, 2011 @ 1:20 pm

  4. This thing doesn’t include the aging factor either (for Phillips & Utley). I have them a little lower on my rankings for that reason.

    Comment by Luke — November 15, 2011 @ 1:21 pm

  5. does this change your views on Espinosa? Even with the terrible AVG, a 2B who can put up 20+ HR and 15+ SB is pretty darn valuable in fantasy.

    Comment by batpig — November 15, 2011 @ 2:03 pm

  6. on a side note, Bill James projections are always ridiculously optimistic on the young guys who put up big numbers in the high minors (again probably because of the lack of regression). Every year there are guys like Kipnis or Craig who get big fatty projections and cause poor fantasy owners to overpay… just ask those who drafted Kila-monster last year.

    the projections for vets with established major league track records are solid (which makes sense because those are the easiest guys to project anyway) but I would take some of those eye-opening projections for rookies or sophs with a big grain of salt.

    Comment by batpig — November 15, 2011 @ 2:07 pm

  7. Then I don’t understand the hate for Ackley. He put up a .303/.421/.487 slash line in AAA over 331 PA’s last year and did well in AA as well. He hit .273 in the majors. James’ other numbers look about right for Ackley, but I would bet a lot of money Ackley hits better than .255 next season, barring injury. Looking at the other numbers for James on Ackley’s page a .388 SLG also looks low, by a bit.

    Comment by short — November 15, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  8. I just didn’t have him on my list of players to query. When the other projections come out, I will add him to it.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — November 15, 2011 @ 3:12 pm

  9. I didn’t like the 2nd half drop off one bit. Whether it was his position in the lineup or pitchers pitching him differently, the drop in power and plate discipline was severe.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — November 15, 2011 @ 3:14 pm

  10. jeff, is there a way to get the bill james projections in a spreadsheet?

    i assume you didn’t look up and record each and every one of these numbers using just the player pages. going one player at a time is just not practical for doing any sort of serious analysis.

    Comment by johnnycuff — November 15, 2011 @ 3:55 pm

  11. Yes, there is a way to get them in a spreadsheet: buy them at http://bis-store.stores.yahoo.net/bijahapr206.html

    Comment by byron — November 15, 2011 @ 5:10 pm

  12. No. The Dark Overlord (Appelmen) has the rights to publish them, he can’t distribute them. I have access to the FG database, so I just query the 2B I am looking at.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — November 15, 2011 @ 5:12 pm

  13. oh. gross. no way i’m paying $10 per season for projections that are worse than i can get for free.

    thanks for the info.

    Comment by johnnycuff — November 15, 2011 @ 5:46 pm

  14. People discount way too much how badly a low BA hurts you in roto.

    Comment by Blue — November 15, 2011 @ 8:36 pm

  15. I don’t get why Dan Uggla gets such a bad ranking all the time. Among 2B, he was tied for 6th in runs, 1st in homers and 6th in RBI. He’s not perfect and his BA leaves some to be desired, but its a position with little offense and he’s not that hard to compensate for with a high BA guy at a different position. Whatever, I take him annually and my team’s have been in it in competitive leagues for quite a while, so please keep ranking him so low!

    Comment by Isaac — November 15, 2011 @ 10:56 pm

  16. On Kipnis, the Bill James projections are notoriously optimistic with youngsters. If I remember correctly, minor league data isn’t used at all (could be getting systems confused) and regression is light.

    Comment by Brad Johnson — November 16, 2011 @ 8:11 am

  17. “he’s not that hard to compensate for with a high BA guy at a different position.”

    You aren’t fully accounting for his negative effect on BA if you believe this.

    Comment by Blue — November 16, 2011 @ 10:48 am

  18. Some funny comments here. This James guy clearly isn’t going to make it. Hope he has a fallback career.

    (Seriously, it’s good to question anyone, even the sacred cows. But it’s unusual to hear James taken to task. Actually, maybe it’s refreshing, in a way. Question anyone, everything, in an intelligent, measured way of course.)

    Comment by lester bangs — November 16, 2011 @ 11:42 am

  19. and he is a total zero in SB.

    yes, he is a stud in 3 categories but unfortunately there are 5….. and he is TERRIBLE in the other two.

    Comment by batpig — November 16, 2011 @ 12:19 pm

  20. Triple slash lines mean NOTHING in fantasy unless the first slash is a high BA.

    Comment by Colin — November 16, 2011 @ 4:55 pm

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