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  1. I have a bit of a dilemma in my keeper league….we keep 10 and I am planning on keeping 7 bats, 2 starting pitchers and a closer. My options for SP are Brett Myers, Javier Vazquez and Jonathan Sanchez. All of them are great K guys and I am definitely keeping Myers, but I can’t decide between Vazquez and Sanchez. Both are great K guys with unpredictable ERA’s and neither have trade value in my league. Which do you prefer? I am leaning towards Vazquez just because I can probably steal Sanchez lower in the expansion draft but I’m not sure….

    Comment by Jim — November 10, 2008 @ 1:55 pm

  2. I think Sanchez has less value right now than Vazquez, but I think I’d rather have Sanchez going forward. If you’re pretty confident that you can get Sanchez back in your draft, keep Vazquez instead. However, I think Sanchez will be better in 09, and if you’re not sure you can get him back, you’re better off going with the better pitcher.

    It also somewhat depends on whether Vazquez is traded, and where he’s traded to. If he goes to a park that depresses homers, he could be a steal next year too.

    Comment by Peter Bendix — November 10, 2008 @ 1:59 pm

  3. Any chance that it’s something as simple as Sanchez is a much better pitcher from the windup rather than the stretch?

    Seems like Randy Johnson had similar stats his last year with the Yankees — very good with no one on base, but terrible with runners on.

    Comment by dproc0219 — December 27, 2008 @ 7:39 pm

  4. I think it is possible than Sanchez was legitimately worse with runners on base than with no one on, but I think that a) this is unlikely, and b) even if it’s true, he can learn to handle men on base better.

    However, it’s unlikely that Sanchez isn’t mentally strong enough (or whatever) to pitch well with men on base. In fact, his strikeout rate with men on base (22% of plate appearances) was very similar to his rate with no one on base (23% of plate appearances).

    Sanchez did perform much worse after he threw 75 pitches in a game, and this could have an effect on his splits. As the game went longer, Sanchez wore down, and allowed more runners on base, and was more likely to allow these runners to score since he wasn’t pitching as well later in the game anyway. This, too, is fixable, if Sanchez can build his endurance.

    Comment by Peter Bendix — December 28, 2008 @ 4:00 pm

  5. I dont have time to look it up but I remember watching a giants game where he started, around august, and they should very telling stat. I dont remember the exact numbers but the premise was Sanchez’s #’s were really good when pitching out of the windup, and really terrible when pitching out of the stretch, much more disproportionate than a normal pitcher.

    Even my novice eye could notice a difference in his ‘stuff’ between the 2 deliveries.

    My unsolicated advice is to not use a worthwhile draft pick on him, theres a reason why hes been rumored to be traded for so-so players like hardy and delmon young. And why would a team even think about trading a young lefty high k/9 pitcher if he was going to be any good?

    Comment by Steve Shane — January 10, 2009 @ 11:50 pm

  6. Steve – His numbers are probably worse in the stretch because there are runners on base, making it far more likely to give up runs :).

    Comment by Mike — January 19, 2009 @ 3:25 pm

  7. Since when is JJ Hardy a so-so player???

    Comment by DanDuke — January 25, 2009 @ 1:58 am

  8. Hardy was the 3rd most valuable SS in baseball last year and 4th most valuable in 2007, guess we have very different ideas of what so-so means, heh..

    Comment by Ender — January 25, 2009 @ 12:43 pm

  9. Hardy has a career .334 wOBA, 176 ISO, .329 OBP, .270 avg… Certainly nothing to get excited about… His power is a pretty direct result of Miller Park being extremely hitter friendly (especially to right handed hitters)…

    Comment by Matt — January 25, 2009 @ 1:54 pm

  10. Mike,

    my original post should say, “they SHOWED, not should, a very telling stat”, we’ll call that a ‘write-o’….
    anyways, the #s they showed had to do with the fact that he couldnt throw strikes out of the stretch and his stuff become much much more hittable. Obviously pitchers are going to have higher ERAs when pitching with runners on base.

    Heres where you need to take a step back from the stats and look at the real world. I dont know how you quantified valuable, but theres no one beside Mrs Hardy who will claim that Hardy is better than Hanley, Reyes, or Rollins. If Hardy is sooo good, why did he have 134 ABs from the #7 spot last year, I would wager that the Brewers mgmt knows just a tad more about baseball than you.

    Comment by Steve Shane — January 25, 2009 @ 3:02 pm

  11. In the real world, defense counts. Hardy was the 3rd most valuable shortstop last year. While his stats may not have been as flashy as the Big 3, he is an elite defender, and that contributes greatly to his value.

    Also, since when did Delmon Young become so-so? He has long been considered one of the game’s top prospects. His stock has fallen a little recently, but the guy is 23. People tend to forget that.

    If he was rumored to be traded for guys like you mention, there is a reason…he is a pretty damn good pitcher.

    Why would you think about trading a high k/9 pitcher if he was going to be any good? Maybe because you have guys like Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, and Tim Alderson and your offense is pathetic..

    Comment by Jim — March 25, 2009 @ 1:12 pm

  12. Hmmm…..2nd year in a row that his FIP is significantly better than his ERA….could this be a trend? Just a side note, he must be rediculously nasty if he can manage a 4.29 FIP while walking 6.03 batters per 9 innigns.

    Comment by R M — June 11, 2009 @ 5:39 pm

  13. As a Giants fan Jonathan Sanchez is becoming maddeningly frustrating. One of two things needs to happen, he needs to be traded for a bat (hopefully another year of a miserable BB rate hasn’t completely derailed his trade value) or he needs to move to the bullpen. I would lean toward trading him as there are likely pitching coaches around the Majors who see his swing and miss stuff and figure they can reshape him and get his mechanics consistant so he’ll pound the zone… let him be their project. Otherwise it’s time to realize how much better he is out of the wind then the stretch and let him be a lefty capable of facing lefties and righties with an emphasis of facing left handed stacked orders in relief (such as the Phillies). I have no doubt the Giants could fill the back end of their rotation with someone, perhaps Kevin Pucetas, or maybe move Henry Sosa up to AAA and prep him to fill the 5th starter spot? A back end of the bullpen featuring RHP’s Valdez/Romo/Wilson and LHP’s Affeldt/Sanchez seems pretty legit to me (I did purposely ommit Howry as he is garbage).

    Comment by Josh S. — June 12, 2009 @ 12:00 am

  14. Moving Sanchez to the bullpen would be a straight up bad move.

    Comment by R M — September 24, 2009 @ 10:43 pm

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