Last week I wrote about two stats, Value Hit Percent (VH%) and Poorly Hit Percent (PH%), which both serve to measure the quality of contact on the high and low ends of the spectrum, respectively. Value Hits represent the highest quality of contact, making up a huge number of doubles, triples, and home runs, while Poorly Hit balls represent balls in play that are almost automatic outs. Poorly hit balls register in an earned base, whether by a hit or through an error, about 2.5% of the time. This is a success rate roughly on par with infield fly balls, which results in a base about 2.2% of the time, according to the MLB classification of pop ups over the same two year time span. Granted, differing methods for defining pop ups can decrease the success rates dramatically, down to 1% or lower. No matter how you cut it, though, we’re talking about near automatic outs with both PH and IFFB.
Many have combined IFFB rates with strike out rates when calculating FIP, and the calculations work because both the strike out and the infield fly have roughly equivalent run values during a game, sitting between -.25 and -.28 depending on the season. Considering PH have very similar success rates to IFFB, it seems safe to assume their run value is very similar as well, and PH could be added to the strike out totals in the FIP formula. In order to account for this slight change, we just need to go through and calculate a new constant to go along with the inclusion of PH%, and for the 2016 season it turns out to be 4.817. Read the rest of this entry »