• The Prospect Stock Watch: Olivares, Gatewood, Maples
    by Marc Hulet - 6/26 -  2
    This week’s prospect stock watch takes a look at an under-the-radar prospect in the Blue Jays system, a shortstop-turned-first baseman showing outstanding pop (and lots of swings and misses), and a long forgotten ($2.5 million) arm now making good in the bullpen.
  • Roto Riteup: June 25, 2017
    by Justin Mason - 6/25 -  10
    A’s rookies @mattolson21, @bruggy4 and @barreto0227 are FIRST trio of teammates to each hit first career HR in same game in @MLB history. pic.twitter.
  • Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Eno Sarris, Paul Sporer, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Bullpen Report: June 26, 2017

• Rough night for Craig Kimbrel as he only struck out one in a perfect inning for his 21st save. I’m a bit late to the game but I watched Fastball this weekend on Netflix which featured Craig Kimbrel and his heater quite a bit. While he was on the Braves when the film came out, he’s throwing even harder now (98.2 average mph on his fastball) and maybe even pitching better than ever, which says a lot. In 33.2 innings pitched this year, Kimbrel has 61 strikeouts against only five walks leading to a 1.07/0.43/1.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. If you’re wondering if maybe SIERA is picking up something FIP is missing, well that’s at a cool 0.94. Kimbrel has broken advanced pitching metrics this year, again.

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Mixing & Fantasy: Fister, Barreto, & More

Very Quick Look: Doug Fister

I’m skeptical but intrigued by older pitchers making a comeback. An owner could end up with Rich Hill or Jeremy Guthrie. I was extremely skeptical of Fister especially after the Angels, who could use some pitching help, released him.

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Domingo Santana and the Juggernaut Lurking Within

A wise man once told me, “Thirty is the new 20.” He spoke not of dating prospects but of percentages — specifically, strikeout percentages. The gist of his sentiment was back in the olden days, a player’s fantasy value would have been harmed, perhaps irreparably, if he struck out 20-something percent of the time. Now, we see hitters subsist and more with 30-something strikeout rates — Joey Gallo, Keon Broxton, Miguel Sano, Khris Davis and Aaron Judge, to name a few.

We — or, if I dare not speak for you, you intellectual, you, then just I — have been forced to reassess how we (I) “scout” the intersection of contact and power for fantasy purposes. This monologue is peripherally relevant to the eventual subject of this post, Domingo Santana, because he, too, once ran a 30-something strikeout rate. He no longer does that, though, which is good. That’s part of the reason why I’m here. But it’s more of the icing on this cake, so allow me to bake the cake first.

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The Prospect Stock Watch: Olivares, Gatewood, Maples

This week’s prospect stock watch takes a look at an under-the-radar prospect in the Blue Jays system, a shortstop-turned-first baseman showing outstanding pop (and lots of swings and misses), and a long forgotten ($2.5 million) arm now making good in the bullpen.

Edward Olivares, OF, Blue Jays: It’s time to start talking about Olivares – who has been greatly overshadowed by teammates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, two of the top prospects in the game. The lesser known prospect appeared in just 15 games in 2016 due to injury and has made up for lost time in ’17. He’s slugged 11 home runs (fourth in the league) with 14 doubles and eight triples. Olivares, 21, has also successfully stolen 14 bases in 19 tries and is well on his way to a 20-20 season in his first full year. The only real negative to his game so far is the 3.9% walk rate. Defensively, he can play all three outfield positions. Look for him to get a taste of high-A ball before the year is out.

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The Daily Grind: Meager Monday

Another week, another grind, another couple home runs for Cody Bellinger.

AGENDA

  1. Best Rivera?
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Hitters to Use
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Field of Streams: Episode 275 – Stop Saying Mike Fiers Is On Fire

Episode 275 – Stop Saying Mike Fiers Is On Fire

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss who the White Sox All Star may be, Mark Buehrle looking good post retirement, the non-descript Jose Martinez, Mike Fiers getting it together, Eric Sogard’s recent success, Dylan’s latest favorite faceless Padre, Homer Bailey’s outrageous ratios after one start, Steven Vogt joining the Brewers, Dwight Smith the singer, and Matt calling Dylan “millennial scum.”

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Starting Pitcher ERA-SIERA Gaps: Potential ERA Improvers

We’re nearing the midpoint of the season (wow has it come quickly!), so it’s finally time to check in on the starting pitchers whose ERA marks are significantly higher than their SIERA marks. Naturally, many on this list are bad, even after figuring in some improvement, but there are enough potentially good pitchers that would make for actual fantasy targets. So let’s discuss them. For completeness purposes, I’m listing the entire top 20, but will only discuss those that matter.

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Roto Riteup: June 26, 2017

I am a die hard Giants fan, but even I can’t deny the greatness of Cody Bellinger. In 57 games he has hit 24 home runs and stolen five bases with a .274/.342/.679 triple slash this year. The Dodgers have 85 games left and if he plays 80 of the games, he would hit 57 home runs for the season… AS A ROOKIE… IN A 137 GAMES!!!

 

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Bullpen Report: June 25, 2017

Following up on Friday’s Bullpen Report in which we reported that Roberto Osuna was unavailable due to illness, it turns out that it was mental illness. Arden Zwelling of Sportnet passed along the following comments from the Blue Jays closer:

I don’t really know how to explain it. I just feel anxious. I feel like I’m lost a little bit right now. This has nothing to do with me being on the field. I feel great out there. It’s just when I’m out of baseball. When I’m not on the field, I feel just weird and a little bit lost.

Needless to say, Osuna’s mental health should be everyone’s top priority. It was encouraging that he pitched the ninth inning on Sunday with an 8-2 lead. He allowed a two-out single but struck out the side.

Despite the appearance on Sunday, Osuna’s status as the team’s full-time closer remains in doubt for the time being while he works through his personal issues. Ryan Tepera is next in line for saves if Osuna needs to miss additional time.

Matt Bush, who was saddled with a blown save and a loss on Friday, closed out a one-run win over the Yankees on Sunday. With a blazing fastball, he breezed through the first two outs before Aaron Judge singled, and the inning culminated in a battle with Gary Sanchez, who had homered earlier in the game. Despite the drama, Bush struck out Sanchez on a sharp slider off the plate, giving him his ninth save of the season. Things haven’t been easy for Bush as of late: he currently has a troubling 4.55 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. However, Bush has the stuff to be at least an adequate closer, and the projections back that up. Recent struggles aside, Bush still seems to have a grasp on the closer’s role, although Keone Kela is lurking behind him.

Yusmeiro Petit picked up a two-inning save against the Red Sox. The Angels bullpen in general is going through significant change right now, with Bud Norris recently landing on the disabled list and Cam Bedrosian and Huston Street recently returning from injury. Bedrosian looks like the closer moving forward, at least until Norris returns, and Petit probably received the save chance on Sunday because Bedrosian had thrown 30 pitches the previous day. In that 30-pitch outing, Bedrosian allowed two runs on two hits, two walks, and a wild pitch.

Santiago Casilla allowed a home run and a single but picked up his 13th save against the White Sox. Casilla has been shaky all season, and Sunday was no exception. He now has a 4.28 ERA/4.20 FIP/4.75 xFIP in 27.1 innings. On his heels, Sean Doolittle has been outstanding as of late. Doolittle has 22 strikeouts and has allowed just one walk and two homers in 13.2 innings. True, the sample size is minuscule, but Doolittle’s 1.98 ERA/2.04 FIP/1.85 xFIP looks so much better than what Casilla has done this season. If Doolittle can prove that he’s healthy and reliable, it’s conceivable that a change in the pecking order could take place at some point this season.

Alex Colome pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game, and he allowed three runs on two hits, two intentional walks, and a hit batsman. As has been mentioned multiple times in the Bullpen Report this year, Colome’s strikeout rate has fallen back down to earth after he put up impressive numbers in that category last season. But for the most part, he still gets the job done. Despite the 4.40 xFIP this season, he has just a 3.15 ERA and 3.17 FIP, and that same trend (beating his xFIP) has held true throughout his major league career. The projections forecast good things moving forward from Colome as well, so today’s outing looks like just a rare bad one for Colome.

Joe Kelly extended his scoreless streak to 21 consecutive outings dating back to May 1. In that 18.1 inning span, Kelly has a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and 55.6 percent ground ball rate. He’s picked up holds in three of his last four appearances and has nine on the season. Overall, Kelly boasts a 1.10 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.98 xFIP in 32.2 innings this season, but his strikeout rate is projected to increase (it’s just 18.5 percent on the year), and he could be on his way to a sustained and prominent role in the Red Sox ‘pen. He’s bumping Heath Hembree, who has just one hold since May 26, off the grid for now.

Other closer activity: A.J. Ramos picked up a four-out save (12). Brandon Kintzler pitched a perfect ninth in a non-save situation. Brach Brach pitched a scoreless eighth and ninth and was rewarded with a win. Craig Kimbrel allowed a run on two hits and a strikeout in a non-save situation. Raisel Iglesias pitched 1.2 innings to finish off the Nationals in a non-save situation. Fernando Rodney pitched a scoreless top of the ninth in a tie game. He struck out one and walked a batter. Brandon Maurer pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. He has a 6.53 ERA and a 3.86 xFIP. Justin Wilson struck out two in a perfect ninth to notch his sixth save of the season. Kenley Jansen entered with a one-run lead with one out in the eighth, and he ultimately finished off the Rockies in the ninth with a six-run lead. Jansen added to the offensive explosion in the bottom of the eighth with an RBI double off Greg Holland.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
ARI Fernando Rodney Archie Bradley Jorge De La Rosa JJ Hoover
ATL Jim Johnson Arodys Vizcaino Jose Ramirez
BAL Brad Brach Mychal Givens Richard Bleier Zach Britton
BOS Craig Kimbrel Matt Barnes Joe Kelly Carson Smith
CHC Wade Davis Koji Uehara Carl Edwards Jr.
CWS David Robertson Tommy Kahnle Anthony Swarzak Nate Jones
CIN Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen Drew Storen
CLE Andrew Miller Cody Allen Bryan Shaw
COL Greg Holland Adam Ottavino Jake McGee
DET Justin Wilson Alex Wilson Shane Greene
HOU Ken Giles Will Harris Michael Feliz
KC Kelvin Herrera Joakim Soria Mike Minor
LAA Cam Bedrosian David Hernandez Blake Parker Bud Norris
LAD Kenley Jansen Pedro Baez Luis Avilan Josh Fields
MIA A.J. Ramos David Phelps Kyle Barraclough
MIL Corey Knebel Jacob Barnes Carlos Torres
MIN Brandon Kintzler Matt Belisle Taylor Rogers Glen Perkins
NYM Addison Reed Jerry Blevins Paul Sewald Jeurys Familia
NYY Aroldis Chapman Dellin Betances Tyler Clippard
OAK Santiago Casilla Sean Doolittle Ryan Madson
PHI Hector Neris Pat Neshek Luis Garcia
PIT Felipe Rivero Juan Nicasio Daniel Hudson
STL Seung Hwan Oh Trevor Rosenthal Matt Bowman
SD Brandon Maurer Brad Hand Ryan Buchter Carter Capps
SF Mark Melancon Hunter Strickland George Kontos
SEA Edwin Diaz James Pazos Nick Vincent
TB Alex Colome Danny Farquhar Tommy Hunter Brad Boxberger
TEX Matt Bush Keone Kela Jose Leclerc
TOR Roberto Osuna Ryan Tepera Danny Barnes Joe Smith
WSH Enny Romero Matt Albers Blake Treinen Koda Glover

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


Roto Riteup: June 25, 2017

This was a pretty cool way to start the weekend:

 

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