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  1. I’d put the over/under on Fielder at 35 home runs. He might go under, but it’d be pretty shocking if he hit under 30.

    Comment by Randy — March 1, 2012 @ 11:53 am

  2. I enjoy these bold predictions and understand you gotta go bold. But if that second number for Adam Jones’ 30/30 is stolen bases, I can’t see any chance, even bold, of Adam Jones sniffing 30 SBs. He’s never even attempted 30 steals in a season, let alone the 40 it would take for him to even possibly make 30 safely! I’d boldly predict 200 Ks for him before that happens.

    Matt Cain is another laugh. The Giants magic has been an amazing run, and with the 6th highest payroll sure they’ll stay competitive. But my bold prediction is that magic finally runs out for Cain this year and we hear the bemoaning of Cain’s “inexplicable bad luck” giving up so many home runs (read: close to normal finally).

    Comment by Fatbot — March 1, 2012 @ 12:01 pm

  3. 30 SBs for Adam Jones would be his 2011, 2010, and 2009 SBs totals, along with 1/3 of his 2008 SB totals.

    Comment by Oliver — March 1, 2012 @ 12:07 pm

  4. Like the boldness right up to #9. if your lack of faith is in Francisco getting hurt and losing his job then ok, but no way is moving from Rogers centre and before that Arlington to the NL and shorten yet still most likely pitching or neutral Citi Field a bad thing. Fransico was dominant in the second half last yr and I think the move to NL and Citi help him tremendously and he will be one of the best baragin closers out there. and if he happens to get hurt which given his career is not that unlikely I think the mets will quickly realize Rauch is not all that good and Ramon RAmirez will get more saves than Rauch

    Comment by tvators — March 1, 2012 @ 12:09 pm

  5. Now I know to avoid everything you write going forward. These are your predictions? Christ.

    Comment by Schu — March 1, 2012 @ 12:13 pm

  6. they’re called BOLD predictions for a reason. no one wants to see predictions of Verlander winning another CY.

    Comment by Josh — March 1, 2012 @ 12:22 pm

  7. Bold doesn’t mean completely unrealistic. It means a prediction based on numbers that people aren’t looking at. Saying Jones is going to go 30/30 for the year is not based on anything he’s done statistically in the past, it’s a number he pulled completely out of his ass. I expect better from Fangraphs than ‘gut feelings’.

    Comment by Schu — March 1, 2012 @ 12:31 pm

  8. Granted, the 30 SB call is shooting for the moon here. But 30 HR is very realistic for a guy entering his prime and has increased his power output over from two seasons ago. Perhaps 20 SB would have been bold enough but 30/30 has so much nicer a ring to it…

    Comment by Howard Bender — March 1, 2012 @ 12:37 pm

  9. I gotta laugh at all the people that come into these posts and disparage the BOLD predictions as somehow unworthy of inclusion on this site. Y’all need to stop taking everything so seriously. These posts are meant to be fun (I know that might be a word you are unfamiliar with…you should look it up)…not analyzed and nit picked to death.

    Comment by SteveJobs — March 1, 2012 @ 12:47 pm

  10. I gotta say I think no guy is getting more undue attention going into this year than Brian LaHair. If I can pick him up for a few bucks I’ll do it, but 30 HR seems completely and utterly absurd to me.

    Comment by GVeers — March 1, 2012 @ 12:51 pm

  11. Rauch is “more than capable” is more than an overstatement.

    Francisco is a far superior pitcher who got messed around by the manager last year. Farrell admitted his 9th inning mismanagement.

    Fun article to read though.

    Comment by gary — March 1, 2012 @ 12:55 pm

  12. people don’t understand the meaning of bold, do they? I had the same reaction when I wrote my 30 bold predictions for 2012 as well.

    Comment by ray — March 1, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

  13. this the reason for the title of the article.

    Comment by ray — March 1, 2012 @ 1:07 pm

  14. this=thus

    Comment by ray — March 1, 2012 @ 1:07 pm

  15. exactly

    Comment by ray — March 1, 2012 @ 1:08 pm

  16. The Jones 30/30 was certainly a BOLD prediction seeing he’s only attempted 64 steals in 624 games but that is the idea of bold predictions.

    Think anyone predicted Brady Anderson would hit 50 home runs in a year. If someone had they would have been roundly criticized, until it actually happened.

    Folks need to read the headline prior to getting all worked up. It wasn’t Howard Bender’s 10 stone cold lead pipe locks…. Relax people..

    Comment by Wes — March 1, 2012 @ 1:12 pm

  17. These are the BOLDEST of the bold predictions on fangraphs. Bravo!

    Comment by hifilofi — March 1, 2012 @ 1:55 pm

  18. Won’t Cameron Maybin only play 81 road games not 82? If that’s the case then I will sarcastically say that one less game on the road gives him no chance to meet the 15 HR mark. At most he can muster 14 HR

    Comment by Dave — March 1, 2012 @ 2:03 pm

  19. touche, Dave.

    The number of games is corrected, but I still stand by my call…

    Comment by Howard Bender — March 1, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

  20. We’ll probably award a ‘Boldest’ and a ‘Rightest,’ so this comment will be noted!

    Comment by Eno Sarris — March 1, 2012 @ 2:15 pm

  21. Maybe there’s another round coming where Howard will boldly project the Padres wind up in a 1-game playoff…on the road.

    Comment by jimbo — March 1, 2012 @ 3:25 pm

  22. +abillion

    Comment by tvators — March 1, 2012 @ 3:54 pm

  23. I like Maybin this year and while I understand these are BOLD predictions, I still like him to hit 12-15 HRs and steal 40 bases again.

    No shot at Adam Jones stealing 30 bases. The power is there for 30 HRs and if Buck is aggressive, he could steal 15-18 but that’s it. On the plus side, he did attempt more steals last year than he ever has in the pros.

    Comment by cfg720 — March 1, 2012 @ 4:08 pm

  24. So you expect more homeruns from both Adam Jones and Brian LaHair than you do from Prince? Really?

    Comment by Cecil Fielder — March 1, 2012 @ 4:21 pm

  25. So if these predictions are so out there, what is the Montero prediction doing there? Would it really surprise anyone if he hit 25 HRs? Honestly it would surprise me if he hit less than 25 HRs if he gets 600 plate appearances

    Comment by Parker — March 1, 2012 @ 7:40 pm

  26. No way Adam Jones gets 30. Bold would be 30/20.
    I like the Fielder prediction: Comerica will keep some of his shots in the park, as will Target and Kaufmann.
    My guess: 33 adjusted for the lack of pitching in the AL Central.

    Comment by balticfox1917 — March 1, 2012 @ 10:00 pm

  27. The point of these articles is to be fun, but the point of the comments section is to analyze and nit-pick. Everyone is doing their job here. Carry on.

    Comment by Dexter Bobo — March 2, 2012 @ 2:32 am

  28. I certainly appreciate the boldness of the 30/30 prediction Howard but it would sound a lot more confident if you didn’t preface it with several reasons why it won’t come true. :-) Even in your “Get Adam Jones” article earlier this week it seemed like the only real argument for a step forward from Jones is that he’s “entering his prime”. What exactly, aside from age, indicates to you that is the case? Often times players can have their prime years of production early (Russel Martin) or later (Paul Konerko). I’d like to see SOME statistical basis for the step forward here, especially since it’s not like the respective difficulty/ineptitude of the division or the surrounding lineup suddenly changed.

    I’m not knocking the prediction, I think it might just be TOO bold. :-)

    Comment by Nilsilly — March 2, 2012 @ 9:54 am

  29. Why would Francisco or Rauch get the job over Sergio Santos?

    Comment by jerbear1985 — March 2, 2012 @ 2:05 pm

  30. Didn’t Pac-Man talk up the beat writers last spring training? Suggesting he’d run a lot.

    You know why he didn’t run a lot? Of course you do… he isn’t good at stealing bases.

    Comment by Matt NW — March 3, 2012 @ 1:49 pm

  31. Can two guys who share a name but play in different sports still have the same nickname? Are you referring to the NFL player Adam Jones? Of course he’s terrible at stealing bases. That’s not even his game…

    Comment by Howard Bender — March 4, 2012 @ 12:48 pm

  32. Because neither of them plays in Toronto.

    Comment by Howard Bender — March 4, 2012 @ 12:50 pm

  33. What sense would it make for Adam Jones to even attempt 30 steals anyway when the Orioles have one of the worst OBP in MLB? Anyway, Showalter is too deliberate to even allow Jones to attempt 20.

    30 homeruns, 30+ 2B’s is a first Jones should shoot for. Then again, this is called “bold” predictions lol

    Comment by dave in gb — March 4, 2012 @ 8:21 pm

  34. Details, tsk. I thought you were willing to be bold here?

    Comment by Puzzled — March 5, 2012 @ 9:56 am

  35. hence the bold prediction

    Comment by Joe Sportswriter — March 6, 2012 @ 10:28 am

  36. Comerica isn’t that much of a homer killer. The park is basically neutral towards hitters in general and even moderately favors lefty hitters.

    It’s a huge park, but it certainly doesn’t play like it is.

    Comment by Jeff — March 6, 2012 @ 5:42 pm

  37. I hope you are right about Adam Jones being a 30/30 guy this season! I have him on two of my teams.

    Comment by Jason — March 26, 2012 @ 3:13 am

  38. If Frank Francisco fails at closer for the Mets then I see Ramon Ramirez first crack at taking over the job, not Rauch. Last season, the velocity on Rauch’s fastball dropped off and his HR/FB was higher than Franky’s at 12.9%. Ramirez HR/FB was only 5.0% and he clearly just has closer stuff. He can bring the heat on his fastball and his slider definitely has some filth on it.

    Don’t forget about Manny Acosta, either. Over the last three months of the season Acosta had an ERA of 2.06 along with 41K/12BB in 38.1 innings Once he took over the closer’s role in September he went 4 for 5 in save opportunities. His talent has never been in question, it’s always been about taming his wildness.

    Comment by Ryan — March 26, 2012 @ 6:39 am

  39. I have Maybin stealing 70 bases this year.

    Comment by supershredder — April 5, 2012 @ 12:50 pm

  40. that would be ridiculously awesome. I projected him between 50 and 55, but I’ll certainly take 70…

    Comment by Howard Bender — April 5, 2012 @ 1:05 pm

  41. Don’t look now but Adam Jones has 5 home runs and 3 stolen bases in the season’s first two weeks. 30 stolen bases is still really ambitious but I’d say the chances today are a lot higher than they were when the article was written.

    Long and short, much respect.

    Comment by Jordan T — April 20, 2012 @ 3:14 pm

  42. Hello there Mr LaHair, we’ve been expecting you

    Comment by DRS2Impress — May 10, 2012 @ 3:53 pm

  43. The Jones and LaHair predictions don’t seem quite so unrealistic now, do they?

    Comment by RTBenj — May 20, 2012 @ 7:25 pm

  44. Just taking a mid-season look back at this. Funny that the most criticized predictions are the most accurate! Specifically, Adam Jones, Prince Fielder, Bryan Lahair (though this one looks like it fell of a cliff), and Matt Cain.

    Comment by Jason — July 3, 2012 @ 12:11 pm

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