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  1. There’s only one flaw in your argument and that’s the fact that following the concussion in July 2010, he suffered a few other injuries and really hasn’t been “healthy” up until now. After he did come back from the concussion he had neck and wrist issues which caused him to miss the majority of the 2011 season (both issues required surguries). I would wager that his offensive issues, particularly the lower power numbers, can be more closely attributed to his wrist and neck problems and not the concussion. I think that as the season continues, barring injury, those power (and walk) numbers will return. It would appear that his concussion issues are behind him – I think what we’re seeing now is a) rustiness from not having played all that much for the past season-and-a-half and b) lingering effects of a wrist injury.

    Comment by AK47 — April 18, 2012 @ 9:38 am

  2. “Before: 0.286/0.358/0.511
    After: 0.228/0.285/0.347″

    The preceding “0″s are a mistake, right? Just found it odd…

    Comment by Rick Lopez — April 18, 2012 @ 9:43 am

  3. Rust and wrist, couldn’t agree more. He looks good at the plate this year.

    Comment by num1mlbfan — April 18, 2012 @ 9:48 am

  4. UsIng the same site you did, I ran just his 2012 numbers and compared them to his 2009 numbers. He’s hitting his home runs further this year and his fly ball distance is longer. Only thing down is the line drive distance. Obviously small sample size but I think it’s more accurate to break down his numbers with 2012 being a stand alone as, mentioned above, this seems to be his first time back from the concussion without other problems.

    Comment by wjylaw — April 18, 2012 @ 9:48 am

  5. I don’t know, but were they in the Metrodome or Target in 2010? This should have an effect too, correct? And we really don’t know the effect a concussion has on a players abilities, do we? One bump in the wrong way could knock him back out. I’m sure there is still high risk here. I hope he returns to pre-concussion levels. He seems like a nice guy. But I’m not certain we see that ever again. Although I think he will get better the further from the injuries he gets.

    Comment by Chicago Mark — April 18, 2012 @ 10:01 am

  6. This analysis is on the shallow side. Oddly it misses all of the things he has done poorly in 2012 while focusing on the one thing that has been okay for him so far.

    Specifically, his power, which this article highlights as his biggest weakness, has actually been fine. His ISO is .205, well below his peak power but only a hair below his career figure. He has 2 HRs on 12 fly balls, so his HR/FB rate raises no alarms. His FB% sits right at his career average of 41%. Insert SSS caveat here if you wish, but SSS concerns only indicate that his “normal” performance to date may not be predictive, not that he must perform better or worse than he has so far.

    To me, if I’m going to look for problems so far, I would focus on his strikeout rate and his batted ball profile. The walk rate is not concerning to me, because the sample of walks (2 so far) is small enough that one additional walk is the difference between “low” and “normal”. However he has 10 strikeouts in 42 PA, which would still be high even if he took one or two fewer Ks. It’s obviously early, but this is worth watching to see if it is just a matter of rust or a more permanent trend.

    As for his batted ball profile, again this is obviously very early and a very small sample, but so far he has too few line drives (only 2!) and too many groundballs, lending support to what otherwise might look like a “too low” BABIP at .259. We shouldn’t expect his BABIP to rise magically if he doesn’t start hitting more line drives.

    In short, I don’t think Morneau’s start has been “bad” considering the circumstances and the low expectations – since this is a roto-focused article, let’s bear in mind that most people grabbed him extremely late in the draft or off the wire, so the bar is set pretty low. Also, to the extent there is cause for alarm in his performance to date, it is not in the issues highlighted in the article, but in his strikeout rate and batted ball profile. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I’m not making an aggressive trade proposal for him, but I’m not dropping him either.

    Comment by mcbrown — April 18, 2012 @ 10:06 am

  7. I got Morneau n the 20the round, so I’m not expecting production like his MVPseason….just good production for a 20th round pick, with a possibility of upside.

    I’d like a column focusing more on what we can expect Morneau’s rest of season to look like, if possible.

    Comment by Bob — April 18, 2012 @ 10:52 am

  8. He absolutely crushed that homer against Garcia the other day.

    Comment by Big Jgke — April 18, 2012 @ 10:52 am

  9. Yeah, i grabbed him with the very last pick in a 12 team league. For that cost, he’s been fine so far.

    Comment by Big Jgke — April 18, 2012 @ 10:54 am

  10. Last year it was painful to watch him hit. When he did make contact he wasn’t connecting with the ball well at all. This year he looks like he did from 06-09

    Comment by adohaj — April 18, 2012 @ 2:42 pm

  11. Yeah, I think this is alluded to in some of the comments above, but I think comparing Morneau’s post-2010 to his prior seasons is flawed for a couple of reasons: 1) SSS – he has had a total of 330 ABs in 2011 & 2012; and 2) many of those ABs were his attempts to comeback from the concussion (or other injuries). Without a full healthy post-concussion season (or at least a few more consecutive ABs), I don’t think we can draw many conclusions.

    Comment by Brad — April 18, 2012 @ 3:00 pm

  12. “DERP.” -Rick Lopez

    Comment by BStu185 — April 18, 2012 @ 3:00 pm

  13. 2 HR night, right on queue.

    Comment by thegreatdive — April 18, 2012 @ 8:48 pm

  14. This article woke up his bat. Those two jacks went plenty far.

    Comment by Mettlerburger — April 18, 2012 @ 8:48 pm

  15. Like friggin’ Luke Skywalker

    Comment by Matty Matt — April 18, 2012 @ 8:53 pm

  16. Morneau looking real good to me. Those 2 home runs tonight change that sss pretty quick.

    Comment by hatunike — April 18, 2012 @ 10:07 pm

  17. So, I own Kendrys Morales in another league. Doyou think you could write an article about how he’s going to continue to stink, too?

    My stats could use the boost.

    Comment by Bob — April 19, 2012 @ 9:31 am

  18. I believe that his concussion symptoms just never went away in 2011. There was a big paycheck on the line, so why not ‘tough it out?’ It’s pretty hard to hit for power and/or judge the strike zone when you’re not seeing straight. This year I believe the symptoms are much better, but I think he will still have bad days/stretches.

    I got him in the 25th round this year. So far so good.

    Comment by TMW — April 19, 2012 @ 10:04 am

  19. Do you just “believe” that or is there some reason to believe it? To this point in the 2012 season he’s shown no ill effects from the concussion and according to his own words, he hasn’t had any concussion symptoms since last fall. As a Twins fan I’m way more interest in how things actually are for him rather than what people “believe” he’s experiencing. Every player, regardless of whether they’ve ever had a concussion in their life, has “bad stretches” during a 162-game MLB season…saying that he’ll have “bad stretches” is like saying the sun is going to come up tomorrow — duh.

    Comment by AK47 — April 19, 2012 @ 11:28 am

  20. So the fact that he has 2 instead of, say, 3 line drives somehow supports his low BABIP? That is not how it works..

    Comment by MP — April 21, 2012 @ 5:08 am

  21. Worth noting that the guy is no longer young (about to turn 31) and so hoping he returns to his age 25-29 prime seems a bit optimistic no matter what his health status.

    Comment by MP — April 21, 2012 @ 5:13 am

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