FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. This is maybe the single best format for discussing prospects and their impact on fantasy. Great writeup and great layout. I wish all prospect articles were like this.

    Comment by LuckyStrikes — May 11, 2012 @ 9:49 am

  2. Agreed, very nice format and very helpful. I’ve been trying to figure out a last minor league spot between him and Wil Myers. Anyone want to weigh in with an opinion?

    Comment by jon — May 11, 2012 @ 10:21 am

  3. Thanks, Lucky & Jon. Jon, it wasn’t a fantasy piece but I wrote up Myers two weeks ago. http://bullpenbanter.com/rtmenu/760-milbtv-scouting-oscar-taveras-a-wil-myers-

    Myers and Lindor are both near the top of my prospect list so I find it hard to believe you can’t find room for both of them :)

    Comment by JD Sussman — May 11, 2012 @ 10:26 am

  4. Can you say a little more about how you came up with those averages? Are those your own estimates or is there an objective source of such info I’m not aware of? Thanks. Good article.

    Comment by Tim — May 11, 2012 @ 10:28 am

  5. Thanks, Tim. These are my own estimates I created from a widely trusted projection system. I averaged what I felt to be the top 15 SS and cleaned it up with some slight rounding. Honestly, it took all of 5 minutes.

    Comment by JD Sussman — May 11, 2012 @ 10:31 am

  6. Why use a projection system instead of top 14 SS performance over the past x number of years?

    Comment by Mike — May 11, 2012 @ 10:37 am

  7. Mike, first because it was a lot easier. Secondly, the projection system already includes a ton of regression meaning it already includes a lot of past performance in it’s calculations. No matter what I used, there are still issues trying to project the average SS in 2015 given player position movements and changes in individuals’ true talent levels.

    Hopefully this piece gave you a strong enough grasp on who Lindor is as a player that when the projections do end up changing down the line you’ll be able to adjust accordingly.

    Comment by JD Sussman — May 11, 2012 @ 10:46 am

  8. Nice article.
    I’m not so sure that we can estimate his ETA well at this stage, but 2014 seems realistic. Castro outpaced his ETA relative to expectations when he was in low-A, Profar is now at AA, so if Lindor keeps showing that his game is polished enough, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was in AA this time next year. Cabrera and Kipnis are holding down the middle infield capably now, but I expect that Cabrera will be moved off short as soon as the Indians brass feel Lindor is ready. Even if Chisenhall’s bat translates to the major leagues, he could be bumped to a corner outfield spot to accomodate Cabrera moving to third. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Cabrera regress or get traded.

    Comment by Oliver — May 11, 2012 @ 11:37 am

  9. Factoring in the relative likelihood of the two to stick at SS who would you rather own – Lindor or Profar?

    Comment by Owen G — May 11, 2012 @ 11:43 am

  10. In a bubble I would be shocked if either of them moved off short. Though, Elvis’s presence could make for interesting trade fodder. I don’t want to give a detailed response because I plan on writing up Profar at some point too, but I’ll say the two have some similarities, however it isn’t as simple as choosing one over the other for fantasy purposes.

    Comment by JD Sussman — May 11, 2012 @ 11:56 am

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