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  1. Thank you for the article. Doesn’t really give any answers but at least you raised the question.

    Comment by Bob — May 10, 2012 @ 2:23 pm

  2. Mike, you mentioned the wall hurting his over-the-fence production. I watch the Sox regularly, and while I can’t back this up with stats either, I know that Gonzo feels like he’s at his best when he’s going oppo. He’s a doubles machine off the wall, his gap power looks like it’s still there. In 2011 17 of his 27 HRs came on the road, he only hit 10 at Fenway, which suppresses HRs to LHHs. Most likely you’re spot on that his HR production is down because of the wall. It took him a while to get his power stroke last year too, he’s still got 30+ in him if his shoulder is fully healthy.

    Comment by yosoyfiesta — May 10, 2012 @ 2:24 pm

  3. Seems like the straightforward answer would be that he is not as healthy as he suggests and he may have entered the decline phase a tad early because of his shoulder. That seems like a very plausible answer to me. Also, I think potential power increases upon moving to the AL were probably a bit overstated considering he was going to be facing better competition despite his move to a more favorable park.

    I didn’t necessarily expect 30+ home runs from him considering his shoulder surgery and a move to the AL. Is it unreasonable going forward indefinitely now? Seems likely.

    Comment by Colin — May 10, 2012 @ 2:25 pm

  4. Maybe I am the idiot here but I’ll shoot anyway.

    Are there metrics, or information available that tracks bat speed? I would think bat speed is the root for power (outside of squaring up the ball).

    Assuming he is squaring up the ball, and eliminating humidity, temp, wind, we may be able say if his power is down for real, or just dumb luck with batted ball types etc…

    Comment by roadawg — May 10, 2012 @ 2:35 pm

  5. The awesome “Adrian Gonzalez Evolution” articles this winter described a seemingly conscious effort to target the Monster. And last year, even without homers, he had high wOBA going the other way. But this year, not so much. Perhaps pitchers have adjusted?

    Time for him to evolve again and start pulling the ball for greater distance!

    Comment by Mario Mendoza of commenters — May 10, 2012 @ 3:02 pm

  6. I hope your magic works on Gonzalez. I have both Adrian and Stanton on my team, so my thanks to you.

    Comment by Eyebrows — May 10, 2012 @ 3:27 pm

  7. Maybe some of it can be attributed to his appearance in the HR derby last year? He hit only 1 HR in 36 games after the derby and also 5 of his homers after the All-Star break were in a three game stretch against the Rangers in Arlington from August 23-25.

    Comment by billy — May 10, 2012 @ 3:32 pm

  8. The Derby Curse!!! Now there’s a topic for you, FG!

    Comment by Mario Mendoza of commenters — May 10, 2012 @ 3:34 pm

  9. Can someone write some more articles like this about Pujols? I’ve got him on my team and I need him to start hitting…

    Comment by ed — May 10, 2012 @ 3:50 pm

  10. Hmm never heard of it but I know little. Is there a bat speed metric? That would be almost as awesome as a bat signal.

    Comment by shibboleth — May 10, 2012 @ 4:18 pm

  11. pujols bad. need hit better. unjinxed!

    Comment by juan pierres mustache — May 10, 2012 @ 4:20 pm

  12. I am a huge Braves fan and I watched Jason Heyward go through the same power outage last year. Heyward ran into the wall catching a flyball and partially tore his labrum. He came back too early and couldn’t turn on the ball anymore. He couldn’t catch up to fastballs and left-handers owned him. He started pounding the ball into the ground and everyone had given up on him.

    Well, he is healthy now and back to his old form. You know, the future HOF that everyone had predicted until his injury-riddled performance last year. It looks like Gonzalez suffered some of the same fate the second half of last season as his shoulder tired. If he is healthy, then hopefully this year is just an abberation and he starts pounding the ball again. But, it seems to me that he is still bothered by the shoulder and may disappoint.

    Comment by Canimal31 — May 11, 2012 @ 9:08 am

  13. So, no bat speed data, but to get an idea of a player’s increase or decline in raw power, I look at the distance they hit fly balls and home runs.

    http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/battedballdist.php

    Here is Gonzalez’s numbers over the last 3 years:

    Year: Fly Ball and Home Run Distance
    2010: 301 ft
    2011: 292 ft
    2012: 271 ft

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — May 11, 2012 @ 9:22 am

  14. according to baseballheatmaps.com those distances are measured to where the fielder fields the ball, not where the ball lands or is caught. So, a ball that would otherwise have flown 375 feet, but hits the green monster and is picked up by the OF, say at 300 feet, is recorded as hit 300 feet and isn’t a true measure of Gonzalez’s raw power.

    I don’t know how many balls this would apply to, but if using thease distances as a measure of his raw power, there would be a distortion that should be accounted for.

    Comment by Jamie — May 11, 2012 @ 10:10 am

  15. Good call, Jamie. I believe the Green Monster had a lot to do with his decrease in homeruns but he was probably driving fly balls the same distance. His first season an average of 292 feet shows why he had so many more doubles and a better average. This season, an additional 20 foot difference on his flyball/homerun distance(in the same field)probably means something.

    Last year, he did only have 1 homerun in April with 105 at-bats. This year he had 2 in 85 at-bat, but in May he was went on a power rampage with a third of his homeruns and 31 RBI. This year he hasn’t hit one and only has 4 RBI in 11 games.

    Comment by Kyle — May 12, 2012 @ 3:44 am

  16. what do you think about trading Pujols for Gonzalez straight up?

    Comment by Mike — May 14, 2012 @ 8:25 am

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