Why not look at his SD/MD rates for his career? They tell a different story, useful for fantasy purposes: that he isn’t an elite closer and is prone–through injuries or ineffectiveness–to losing his job.
SD/MD rates also suggest that it’s unlikely any of the other guys in the Mets bullpen are going to run away with the job. So stashing Francisco instead of dropping him is probably the play.
Can someone quickly explain why B. Parnell is so hittable? He’s always seemed to have a good K-rate. And every time there’s any turmoil in the NYM bullpen, Parnell’s name comes up as someone who could potentially fill AND hold the closer job. But, I just don’t see it happening, as even as his walks are slowed down, the hits remain steady.
I can’t see many games, but I’ve always wondered why he can’t make the step from fantasy name-to-watch, to having an actual impact.
Do these stats take into account the volatility of a pitcher’s emotions and control as things spiral out of control? Tongue in cheek aside, I am surprised Franky Frank didn’t throw a chair at anyone in his latest meltdown.
I think it’s similar to the story with Niese–a healthy dose of ground balls, a fastball that doesn’t generate tons of whiffs on its own, and lousy defense. Parnell gets most of his whiffs on breaking stuff, which is why the command improvement is so key–he could never throw that stuff consistently where he wanted to before.
Comment by Mark Himmelstein — May 14, 2012 @ 10:28 am
I feel sick to my stomach about rostering Rauch, but I’m in a league where every save is important. I am a F. Francisco owner, and I didn’t expect much. But, I was hoping he’d at least keep the job.
If it goes to a full-blown committee, I might just cut-and-run. Any news locally on potential bullpen shakeups?
While I’m all for using LI in analysis, I’m not convinced its all that relavent when trying to predict who the next closer is going to be. This situation is a good example. I don’t have numbers to back this but, but I believe the reason Ramirez’s LI is higher isn’t because Collins has more implicit faith in him, but because he’s been brought into more situations with runners already on base. Rauch and Parnell have been used in the more traditional begin an inning and finish an inning sense. But generally Ramirez has been used earlier in games to get guys out of jams or before Collins is ready to spend Rauch and Parnell, who seem to be the two guys Collins has the most faith in (besides Byrdak) at this point.
It’ll be interesting how this situation is handled. Collins is more of an old school guy, but the team is over-achieving and the front office is more saber-friendly, and even old-school guys realize how few guys Rauch is striking out. I’d give it like 60/40 to Rauch then Parnell, with Byrdak and option if its a lefty heavy inning.
Comment by Mark Himmelstein — May 14, 2012 @ 10:35 am
Really? I have too, and the only right handed reliever I felt consistently better about over the last half decade or so was K-Rod.
Comment by Mark Himmelstein — May 14, 2012 @ 11:16 am
In the past, Parnell seemed to think that throwing the ball as hard as humanly possible = pitching. His fastball would miss a lot of bats, but it was also straight and got hit hard often.
This year, he may have finally gotten it through his head that there’s more to pitching. He’s not trying to throw the ball through a brick wall anymore and seems to be a better pitcher.
Comment by Madoff Withurmoni — May 14, 2012 @ 2:47 pm
I watch the mets regularly, also own frankie frankie, I’d assume Rauch gets first crack, with Parnell 2nd if Rauch falls on his face. Ramirez is used in spots for his perceived ability to generate ground balls with his split/slider combo. Kind of the way Chad Bradford was used during his Mets tenure. Byrdak has been reliable as a LOOGY this season so he may vulture the occasional save.
Honestly I’d avoid this closer situation if at all possible, Frankie Frankie has always had good closer stuff, and if he starts stringing together scoreless innings in middle relief i wouldn’t be at all shocked if he got his job back (assuming he has lost it). The only way i don’t see this happening is if Parnell can somehow take the job and run with it, although he’s always been just a bit too hittable in pressure situations.
Of course the plan “C” would be either Jenry Mejia or Jeurys Familia coming up and closing so…