FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. Ohhhh low blow an poor old Jack Wilson. Its not his fault he looks like an Orc.

    Comment by prankmunky — May 25, 2012 @ 10:36 am

  2. Orc’s everywhere decry your characterization as entirely unfair.

    Comment by Michael Barr — May 25, 2012 @ 10:39 am

  3. Why would you expect Freese to have a league average .300 BABIP? He’s posted a .340+ BABIP his entire minor and major league career (well over at most stops).
    .353 over 833 PAs in the majors (I’m pretty sure adding in last postseason’s PA would only increase that number).

    Comment by NPM — May 25, 2012 @ 11:01 am

  4. I didn’t say I expected it to be .300, I just said that what we see now is a closer approximation to what you would expect from him at .265/.323/.490. BABIP related, I just didn’t think it was possible for it to hover at .400. Even for the great David Freese.

    Comment by Michael Barr — May 25, 2012 @ 11:11 am

  5. Agreed. His batted ball profile closely resembles that of Shin-Soo Choo, whose BABIP skill was discussed in an article yesterday. I think his real problem going forward will be maintaining plus-power with a sub-30% FB rate, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him maintain high BABIPs. If he does that and doesn’t hit more FBs he’s probably a .275-.280 hitter with 15-18 HR power, which is pretty good at 3B in the current offensive environment, and there is probably upside the the HR figure.

    Comment by mcbrown — May 25, 2012 @ 11:12 am

  6. OK, everybody here talks about xBABIP all the time, but you don’t have it on the player pages. Where can I find it? Or do I have to calculate it myself?

    Comment by geo — May 25, 2012 @ 11:19 am

  7. it was totally made up by Eno Sarris.

    Or it can be found here: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/xbabip-spreadsheet/

    Comment by Michael Barr — May 25, 2012 @ 11:21 am

  8. Michael, do you see Rodriguez as a better option than Escobar or A. Ramirez to fill in for SS while Bonifacio is out? Roto league with biggest team concern being RBI and R.

    Comment by Brandon Gray — May 25, 2012 @ 12:10 pm

  9. toughie. might want to submit that to the mailbag for other opinions, but none of these guys will probably do much for your RBI and Escobar appears to be hitting 8th/9th most days impacting his run totals. I’d say either trust in regression (Ramirez) or play the hot hand (SeanRod). And pray a lot.

    Comment by Michael Barr — May 25, 2012 @ 12:22 pm

  10. Thanks… I agree, lots of praying and clover picking.

    Comment by Brandon Gray — May 25, 2012 @ 12:32 pm

  11. Alvarez, should I keep him or be patient? Also any advice on Brandon Belt?

    Comment by pounded clown — May 26, 2012 @ 11:19 pm

  12. have a hard time with Alvarez. His contact rates are just so miserable that it’s unlikely he’ll ever have a tolerable batting average. I think at this point in his career, he’s a more inconsistent Mark Reynolds, which is hard to deal with.

    Belt needs to fall into daily playing time. The situation in SF and the way they’re handling him and Pill is just nutty.

    Comment by Michael Barr — May 26, 2012 @ 11:23 pm

  13. Pedro Reynolds sounds about right . Thanks, that gives me a reasonable base line expectation.

    Comment by pounded clown — May 27, 2012 @ 9:25 pm

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