In hindsight, I probably could have phrased it better:
I don’t think Middlebrooks’ true talent BABIP is .380, but it is more than likely higher than .300. Even if he settles in to a .320 BABIP (his ZiPS is .321) then he can still be a useful fantasy option. Going forward, the lack of plate discipline is what is most alarming.
Is that more clearer? I don’t trust MiLB BABIP much to be honest. It helps, but they’re really wide error bars.
The Dark Overlord has thought of everything. At the top of the page, up by FanGraphs: The Game and Leaders, etc. there is the Projection tab.
Mouse over that and just click ZiPS RoS. There you can filter by team and position and also sort by leader. For example. ZiPS thinks Carlos Quentin will get hit by 11 pitches for the rest of the season.
Minor league BABIP is in no way reflective of major league BABIP – without getting into the quality of pitching and defense, the main reason is that there are many many ballparks with substandard field conditions.
A major difference between Rosario and JPA, is that Rosario has accumulated those counting stats in much fewer and more inconsistent at-bats. On a pro-rated basis, Rosario comes out ahead in literally every category you listed, and is likely the better hitter.
I second that – JPA has 70+ more PAs. If you’re starting Arencibia, you’re team is likely screwed (trust me i was in that boat for a while). With breakouts from Ruiz, Pierzynski, and Salty, and AJ Ellis coming from nowhere, JPA’s brutal AVG/OBP combo kills you.
So if you’re holding on to either JPA or Rosario, its for future/keeper value and Rosario has a huge lead there. But on the chance you’re in a 12-team two catcher league, you’re going to want to keep Arencibia because I don’t see the Rockies turning to Rosario full time this season. They’ll need Hernandez to manage that young pitching staff.
The most exciting thing about Rosario’s numbers so far are his Home/Away splits. Dude’s hitting 100 pts higher AWAY from Coors!! That’s definitely going to correct and could mean a significant improvement for him.
Comment by MLB Rainmaker — June 22, 2012 @ 1:49 pm
I think you’re right about trading him – I’m not a big fan of the low walk, high BABIP profile. I traded him away along with Jarrod Parker in a league that counts walks & BB/9 for OF Chris Young. Sure hope Young shakes this shoulder problem and goes back to crushing the ball. Wanted to ship out Parker cause his +4.00 BB/9 was killing me.
Comment by supershredder — June 22, 2012 @ 2:18 pm
I read the Roto Riteup for my daily transaction, head to head, points league. I guess that makes me a streamer. I mostly rely on your recommendations on MON and THU. I haven’t tried The Game, but maybe I should!?.
Anyone like Millwood over Richard for today’s start? SEA has an atrocious offense at home (588 OPS), but is much better on the road (725). Yes, I know petco is as bad as safeco, yet I still like millwood more. Maybe that’s the cynical padres’ fan in me.
I tried to convey that sentiment, but again, the potentially sporadic playing time makes estimating Rosario’s value a nightmare. I speculated that he would get more time, but I couldn’t find any hard evidence of the Rockies leaning that direction. If anyone else could, I’d happily edit and source it.