FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. That 38.5% HR/FB rate is just screaming for regression.

    Comment by Mr. Thell — June 29, 2012 @ 11:56 am

  2. I wouldn’t/won’t/haven’t drop him in my 20 team league (with saves/holds combined) but his ratios are really hurting. You’re more optimistic than I that those will improve. To me, he looks like an overused reliever who is simply being hit hard (LD% nearly double prior years) and not fooling or overpowering anybody. An injury waiting to happen. I drafted him this year as a 3/4 category guy. I will be surprised if he contributes two net categories. I definitely won’t draft him next year and if an owner in my league makes a reasonable offer this year, he can have him.

    Comment by jfree — June 29, 2012 @ 12:15 pm

  3. Looking at his stats this year – he’s looking like a three true outcomes pitcher. He’ll either strike you out (27.7%), walk you (11.0%), or give up a multibase hit HR(6.4%)/LD (24.4%)

    Comment by jfree — June 29, 2012 @ 12:35 pm

  4. I don’t know if that’s accurate – a swinging strike rate of 13.7% seems to indicate he’s still fooling people at an elite level, even if it’s down from last year. And his 11.79 K/9 is actually the best he’s ever posted at any level.

    Comment by Mr. Thell — June 29, 2012 @ 12:48 pm

  5. I haven’t performed the same at work either after having kids.

    Comment by ABC — June 29, 2012 @ 5:33 pm

  6. K/9 is a little deceiving in this case. He’s striking out hitters at about the same rate as last season, he’s just facing more of them per inning.

    Comment by donut — June 29, 2012 @ 6:47 pm

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