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  1. Nice article. How would you rank Goldschmidt against guys like Hosmer, Billy Butler and Nelson Cruz?

    Comment by bgrasso12 — July 9, 2012 @ 10:31 am

  2. Do you think it’s worse drafting Razz and releasing him, or Goldy?

    Colby spent the better part of two seasons littered amongest many of my fantasy teams, just to be thrown by the wayside due to a horrible start.

    Comment by GoHabsGo — July 9, 2012 @ 10:35 am

  3. Nice to see Goldschmidt getting the recognition he deserves. One of his greatest assets has been his ability to adjust at a rapid pace. You can see it in his BB/K rates when he went from A ball to AA. I also watched him make an impressive adjustment to off-speed pitches from his 1st to 2nd month in the majors last year after getting called up from AA. You don’t see many quality off-speed pitchers until AAA (if then) so 2011 was his first real taste of it.

    Everything I read profiles him as being a guy who will always have high K rates and therefore low average. But to me the fact that he’s a very rare all-fields RH power hitter gives him abilities to adapt and succeed that go far beyond your prototypical RH power hitters. I think it’s why he keeps improving beyond what so many people expect him to be.

    You mentioned his bad splits vs. RHP. I don’t have the data on his monthly splits since that disastrous start but it’d be interesting to see the size of the improvement he made against RHP since the end of April. I bet it’s pretty significant. Keep an eye on Goldschmidt. There’s huge untapped upside here in my opinion. And keep up the great articles. I love this site.

    Comment by SolidGoldy — July 9, 2012 @ 11:41 am

  4. How would “Fewer ground balls led to a higher HR/FB (12.5%) rate for Goldschmidt that month.”?

    Theoretically these ground balls should have no correlation on HR/FB %

    Comment by The accountant — July 9, 2012 @ 12:24 pm

  5. Good points. This kid has really dug deep and he probably should’ve been an All Star.

    Comment by Stan Gable — July 9, 2012 @ 2:41 pm

  6. According to MLB’s stats page, over the last 30 days against RHP he’s hitting 318/378/588 against righties. Combine that with last season’s 277/351/504, and it seems that the “struggles against righties” might just be small sample size noise.

    I don’t know of any other site that lets you add two splits filters on data; MLB’s is only useful for the last month (so his May numbers aren’t obtainable, for example). I’m sure bbref will give us the ability at some point.

    Comment by Dale — July 9, 2012 @ 3:21 pm

  7. strange to have a fantasy article about Goldy and not mention the steals! He’s got 12 in 146 career games, including 8 already this season. That doesn’t seem like a ton in absolute terms but in fantasy it really separates him from the mid-pack rabble at the position.

    ZiPS has him finishing with 25 HR and 13 SB. If he continues to hit and locks up some more playing time he could approach 30 HR / 15 SB. Obviously he’s not really a .300 hitter but even at .270ish nabbing an extra 8-10+ SB over the typical 1B is a sneaky value, that could easily be a couple of points in the standings.

    Comment by batpig — July 9, 2012 @ 3:31 pm

  8. good point, his career line vs. RHP is .260/.330/.445 and is likely much more indicative of his true skill level vs. righties than just looking at his 2012 split in isolation. With a player this young it’s probably best to look at his full career line giving a larger sample size.

    Comment by batpig — July 9, 2012 @ 3:33 pm

  9. I am usually the first to criticize field managers’ handling of prospects. Often, they make decisions based on extremely small sample sizes and give young guys insufficient time to acclimate and adjust to the big leagues (see Yost/Giavotella, Acta/Chisenhall, and worst of all, Gaston/Snider). But let’s give credit where it’s due. Gibson’s handling of Goldschmidt has been skillful. When Goldy was struggling, Gibson sat him down against some tough righthanders, but never seem to lose faith in him and never let the sugar high of a hot Overbay distract him from the necessary task of establishing Goldschmidt as the D’backs power threat. Gibson’s earned my respect.

    Comment by Urban Shocker — July 9, 2012 @ 4:17 pm

  10. Actually, isn’t the April badness small sample noise as well? Chris says he changed his approach, and cites the difference in outcomes. But do we know he changed his approach, or is this confirmation bias? I saw him early against the Royals and compared to what I saw of him late last season, he was horrible. His timing was so off that I thought something was physically wrong with him.

    Unless there is an article out there that says he changed something, I would simply chalk it up to not knowing if he’d be in the lineup every day. He strikes me as a guy that needs to be in rhythm. We saw Trevor Plouffe take off once his manager accidentally left him in the lineup too many days in a row, and then couldn’t take him back out without risking his job. I completely agree on the platoon splits. It’s normal to see one for a righthanded power hitter, but Goldschmidt is not a platoon player. Sorry, but this article is a big miss, it’s one big SSS fail.

    Comment by Paul — July 9, 2012 @ 4:33 pm

  11. Amen to that. Gibson had plenty of options and trade weapons to ship Goldschmidt off to the PCL where he would never have been forced to learn to recognize and punish off speed stuff. I’m sure he would have quickly raked the PCL apart and we’d all be applying the dreaded Quad-A label to him by now.

    Gibson’s handling wasn’t just artful, it was bold in this day of Jim Tracey what-have-you-done-for-me-this-week type managers. Glad to see Gibby get rewarded.

    Comment by SolidGoldy — July 9, 2012 @ 6:43 pm

  12. Was going to ask about this statement as well. Makes no sense.

    Comment by Matt — July 9, 2012 @ 10:05 pm

  13. Should have phrased that better. I figure since he hit more home runs, it would be safe to say he was getting better loft on the ball. But the way I phrased it was confusing.

    Comment by Chris Cwik — July 9, 2012 @ 10:09 pm

  14. Eno liked that I traded him for M Moore a week ago…I’m already having 2nd thoughts

    Comment by B-Unit — July 9, 2012 @ 11:22 pm

  15. What are the expectations for next year’s draft? Does he crack the 1B Top Ten?

    Comment by shibboleth — July 10, 2012 @ 9:58 am

  16. I think so, 1B has some elite talent but there’s a big cliff after that the rest of the pack. Assuming Goldy can lock down an every day lineup spot going forward, a package of .270ish, 25-30 HR, 10 SB, 75+ R and 85+ RBI is pretty enticing.

    Comment by batpig — July 10, 2012 @ 2:00 pm

  17. Unless that owner that dropped him was able to pick him back up!!! OH YEAH!!

    Comment by BadAzzMofo — July 10, 2012 @ 2:05 pm

  18. Second this. I have read in some many places – rotoworld, fangraphs, etc. – that Goldschmidt can’t hit righties. Last year he hit righties well and couldn’t hit lefties. I couldn’t find minor league splits but this appears to be a shaky claim at best.

    Comment by Justin — July 11, 2012 @ 9:22 pm

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