Ned Colletti says:
July 11, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Uribe should be SO MUCH higher. Come on guys, don’t you remember his 2010? Nobody even ranked Jerry Hairston Jr? Buuuuullshit!!!!!!
July 11, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Pedro Alvarez is only one spot ahead of Placido Polanco according to one of you? Say what you will about Alvarez, but at worst, he’s a watered down version of Adam Dunn. At best, he continues to build on his hot past month (.294, 8HR, 26RBI, top-20 rank in fantasy) and blossoms into a star. Meanwhile, Polanco (.266, 2HR, 18 RBI for the season) continues to lose playing time for the flioundering Phillies, and offers almost no upside.
July 11, 2012 at 5:06 pm
I couldn’t give away Michael Young if I tied a $100 bill to his back.
July 11, 2012 at 5:08 pm
No love for Plouffe, eh? Behind Reynolds, Crash Davis and Headley is pretty disrespectful for a guy who could hit .270/30 by the time all is said and done.
July 11, 2012 at 5:11 pm
But what about Adrian Gonzalez????
Ned Colletti says:
July 11, 2012 at 5:20 pm
He stinks. I’ll take him!
July 11, 2012 at 5:46 pm
If Tulow is down in the mid-20-somethings for SS, how can Longoria be mid-teens? Not sure he even makes it back this year… I see at least 5-6 guys ranked BELOW him, that I would gladly take. SELL MORTIMER, SELL! ZIPS (R) shows 242 PA’s — no way he gets to that number.
July 11, 2012 at 6:40 pm
well the problem is (stop me if this sounds like a broken record) that JZ uses ZiPS ROS without adjusting for playing time, thus him ranking Longo at #8 for the position. This screws up the rankings quite a bit because of the averaging.
ENO – do you guys use a simple arithmetic mean to average the consensus rank?
Eno Sarris says:
July 11, 2012 at 6:41 pm
He does some adjusting, and ZiPs does some adjusting too. I know where you’re headed, but I value ZiPs RoS enough (with JZ’s adjusting) to leave it as a simple average.
July 11, 2012 at 6:51 pm
if he does adjusting, how does Longo still come in at #8 for the position when he’s not due back until August? And Tulo still at #11 at SS, with Lowrie down at #32? methinks he’s not adjusting enough.
ZiPS RoS does some PT adjustment but it’s basically weighted averages, it cannot operate with real world information (i.e., player X is expected to be out until this date). Projections systems are notoriously weak at projecting playing time, as it’s something that is often not predictable statistically and based on real world decisions by managers.
Take Lowrie for example — based on his past history of part time play mixed with injuries, and statistical projection is going to ding him heavily for playing time. But external factors have changed, he’s now a starting player and should easily blow past the 48 games played and 186 AB that ZiPS RoS projects. The impact on his counting stats will be huge if he plays 70 games instead of 48 in the second half.
I do think there’s value in the “dumb” projection as a statistical hedge against the subjective biases of human rankings, but sometimes you need to adjust when you have better information than the computer.
July 11, 2012 at 6:53 pm
At worst? I think, at worst, Pedro Alvarez strikes out every other plate appearance and gets sent to the minors. At his worst he can be literally the worst hitter in baseball. And I’m not just being pedantic.
July 11, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Pods has stated in many fantasy articles that he thinks many fantasy analysts underrate the impact of batting AVG when doing rankings, so I think this is a reflection of that.
Jeff Zimmerman says:
July 11, 2012 at 8:06 pm
I should have Longo at #11 or one plus the number of teams in the league. He should be top 3 when he returns, so pick up a replacement level 3B for now and use him when he gets back.
July 11, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Michael Young being as high as he is relative to Plouffe and Alavarez makes this list look a whole lot like a preseason ranking. It’s like big first halves were discounted entirely. There are several 3B in the top 15 that I wouldn’t touch with a flagpole.
July 11, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Love me some Plouffe too, but these rankings have to be conservative. I think his lack of track record is what has him so low. If he keeps it up, he’ll move up for sure.
July 11, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Why is Encarnacion ranked above Trumbo in the first base rankings but below him in the third base rankings? Eno in particular has them switched in his ranks.
Eno Sarris says:
July 11, 2012 at 9:34 pm
July 12, 2012 at 12:57 am
Seager’s outdoing Lawrie in HR, RBI, and 2B while posting a BABIP of .272, 30 points lower than his mark from last year, which was in turn lower than everything he ever did in the minors. Plus eligibility at other IF positions… No love?
Mario Mendoza of commenters says:
July 12, 2012 at 8:42 am
More irrational love for Hanley.
July 12, 2012 at 10:54 am
the question is who would you rather have GOING FORWARD. Seager’s been in a freefall for over a month. Plus Lawrie has literally a FIFTY point edge in AVG. Just look at their ZiPS RoS if you want a sense of the reason for the gap in the rankings. The big takeaway is that Lawrie is likely to be better going forward, whereas Seager is likely to be worse…
July 12, 2012 at 10:55 am
irrational? you are aware this is fantasy right? and that Hanley, even without the .300 AVG, is still a 4-category stud?
juan pierres mustache says:
July 12, 2012 at 10:56 am
you guys should go back when all the final numbers are in at the end of the year and do a notgraphs piece on the most hilariously incorrect comments about the rankings
July 12, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Zim, I’m with you on the E5 regression train.
PS Throw some fire on that green shading next to Freese’s name.
July 12, 2012 at 4:50 pm
Seager’s “freefall” is due to a delightful .224 June BABIP, followed by a .182 mark in July, both spurred on by his LD% going through the floor. After having matched his 2011 BABIP numbers (~.305, nicely in line with league average) in both April and May, he was maimed by Safeco in June.
A .224 BABIP is almost never sustainable. Seager is likely to regress strongly back towards his April/May performance.
Mario Mendoza of posters says:
July 12, 2012 at 5:52 pm
No, I’m not aware that he is a 4 category stud. Because he’s not.
He’s even worse in OBP & Ottt leageus.
July 12, 2012 at 6:06 pm
OK, who’s the irrational one?
Hanley’s on pace for 90/20/80/25. What 3B below him on the list can match that production?
July 13, 2012 at 2:12 pm
In what _possible_ universe is Kyle Seager ahead of Casey McGehee. Have you seen how McGehee is playing? Not to mention that you have the jobless Todd Frazier, the non-3B Aviles, the platooning Daniel Murphy, and the absolutely _abysmal_ Ryan Roberts ahead of the guy who’s been as hot as any 3B in baseball over the last 30-45 days. Are you guys serious with this?
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