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  1. The real question for me is whether or not he kept current Ryan Braun, or kept and next year will be getting shrunken-head-no-more-juice Braun. That’s a potentially huge swing, and if Braun’s not the same, he might as well have blown half his budget on a plaster bust of Troy Tulowitzki’s torn hamstrings.

    Comment by dongcopter pilot — September 5, 2012 @ 10:32 am

  2. I agree…I wouldn’t want to hold on to Braun for that much. Even if I couldn’t deal him, I’d cut him and hope that I get him back for even slightly cheaper through auction. Even if his price increases 2-5 bucks like you say, I’d think that’s a risk worth taking.

    In the first year of my ottoneu league, I’ve found myself out of contention. So my general strategy has been that I don’t want to keep hardly anyone for over $30, and no one for over $40. I’d rather pay a lot for someone at auction who I think is going to have a great year and then throw them back/deal if out of contention again. That’s kind of what guides my opinion on that Braun scenario. Do you think that’s a viable strategy/have you seen it at work before?

    Comment by JBentley — September 5, 2012 @ 10:36 am

  3. 3-5 bucks*

    Comment by JBentley — September 5, 2012 @ 10:37 am

  4. How can there be such a discrepancy in player values from league to league? In our points league I don’t think there is a single player above $48 or so. We do seem to spend more on prospects but this can’t account for all of it. Is there really a justification for a star being more than $50 or $60?

    Comment by RBI'd For Her Pleasure — September 5, 2012 @ 11:02 am

  5. There are two parts to that strategy, so far as I can tell (and maybe I am misunderstanding).

    Part I: Drop a pricey guy you think you can get back for less. I used to think this was a good idea, but I actually haven’t often seen it work well. A few years back I tried this with Pujols and ended up paying an extra $10 or something. There tends to be year-to-year inflation, so a guy who goes for $X this year, basically lives up to expectations, and ends up back in the auction pool next year will likely go for somewhere between $X+2 and $X+5, or more. Braun, for me, is in this camp. His average price next year will be higher than it was this year, I think.

    Part II: Overpay for guys you need and if it doesn’t work, spin them off in trades. This definitely works. I paid way too much for Kershaw…but I needed an ace and I got one. Another owner in our league overpaid for Jason Heyward (at least by pre-season standards) but when Heyward started hitting and his team fell out of contention, he was able to trade Heyward (with a similarly potentially overpaid Jay Bruce) to me for an injured but very keepable Jose Bautista. This happens a lot. The hard thing is, you can’t really overpay for more than 1-2 guys, so if you have more holes than that, you are basically acknowledging early that you will be trading those guys.

    Comment by Chad Young — September 5, 2012 @ 1:53 pm

  6. I think there are two reasons – first, there is a lot of salary inflation year-to-year. In year one, you start with everyone having $400 and 40 spots and trying to maximize value. By year two, anyone being kept is underpaid (or at least should be) which means you have everyone with $100-$200 to spend, but only needing a few pieces. So while Ryan Braun may only provide $50 of value, a team that really needs him will pay $55 or $60. And each year each team adds a couple of cheap guys – prospects who make good, injured players returning to form, etc. – and so their extra spending money increases. In year one of our league, I think Pujols went for $50. Now he is $68. That’s inflation.

    Second, there are just basic league-to-league market differences. If one or two guys think stars are worth $60, they will pay that and if you want to get those stars, you have to pay it, too. If, instead, top prospects are going for $20, star players have to be a bit less than they otherwise would. My expectation is that overtime the leagues will reach more of an equilibrium with each other, but part of the beauty of ottoneu is that the market is league specific. Prince was worth way more to the Tigers than he was to the market and if an alternate league existed, no team may have been willing to pay that price. Same thing happens in ottoneu. I needed pitching, I paid $118 for Kershaw and Lincecum combined. Their actual value wasn’t the issue for me…I had the money, I needed the arms, and price was not an issue. In your league next year, maybe someone is desperate for MI help and Cano goes for $65….who knows?

    Comment by Chad Young — September 5, 2012 @ 2:00 pm

  7. Can I petition for an Ottoneu-only post at season’s end where those in Otto leagues can discuss potential changes/wish list items for 2013? Just for example, the “keeper” deadline should be pushed back to March 1st instead of February 1st.

    We’re in season two of our Ottoneu league and we’ve seen inflation rates rise already from season to season. Pujols was snagged at auction for $51 this year and at the time everyone thought that was decent value. However, with his rather sub-standard year his value has dropped, but he was traded a few weeks before the deadline because a savvy owner realized that even with lower production he’d likely go for $55+ in next year’s draft to those teams a Pujols away from contention. The off season brings a lot of optimism for almost all teams, so if you evaluate properly and think you’re just a superstar or two away from serious contention in 2013, a $60+ Pujols can make a lot of sense. Inflation seems to escalate even more for ace SP’s, so I expect that trend to continue in 2013 within our league too…

    Comment by LuckyStrikes — September 5, 2012 @ 3:25 pm

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