Bullpen Report: May 3, 2016

Seattle’s Tony Zych will be placed on the 15-day DL for rotator cuff tendinitis, as the origins and timetable for return are not known. Last year in a small sample Zych looked very strong. Zych was continuing to open eyes with a 14.25 K/9 this season, but his control was also concern with a BB/9 of 6. Steve Johnson was called up to fill his roster spot, but not his role as the second set-up man. Johnson impressed in AAA this year with 20 K’s and 2 BB’s over 16 innings. Yet in his limited major league exposure, Johnson has produced a 4.25 ERA (4.33 FIP) with a good K rate (10.49 per 9) and poor BB rate (5.46 per 9). Nick Vincent will be second in line for saves it seems, and he has performed well this season. Vincent had been a solid low leverage reliever for the Padres, and there appears to have been improvements made this year. His strikeouts are slightly up from the past and he has yet to issue a walk. The two dings on his numbers this year have been the two home runs he gave up this year, but I’m still intrigued by the batted ball data. His previous career high GB/FB ratio was 1.26. This season: 2.17. I know, it’s early and we need to see more if we can conclude whether something has changed. He can still be a nice source for Holds while Zych is sidelined.
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Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 5/3

Here’s the transcript in glorious HD!

Brad Johnson: Hey all, I opened the queue early to post a poll, but I’m not taking questions yet. If you submit one, I WILL skip it. See you in a half hour.

Brad Johnson: Help answer Sporer and Wiers’ debate on twitter. I think you know which answer I choose.

Brad Johnson: I’ll start up in a moment. I need to finish a paragraph while the thought is fresh!

Brad Johnson: Ok you have my undivided attention. Let’s address these burgers for a moment…

Padilla Eephus: Can’t have a which burger survey without Shake Shack.

Brad Johnson: I don’t know or care what that is. This applies to any of your preferred burger chains. Moving along…

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NL Outfield Rankings: May

Previous rankings:
March/April (Preseason)

* * *

For this post, I had written something entirely different, but I woke up early to change it. All of it. I didn’t dream about it — no, not quite. But I came close. This month has proven to be pretty difficult. Maybe “finicky” is the word.

So many hitters are producing at similar levels with similar peripherals to support them that it’s hard to tease them apart. I tried a full re-rank and I had clustered something like 20 or more guys together twice. I try to limit each particular tier to maybe a dozen hitters, so coming away with only three-or-so tiers was problematic. That’s why I decided to wake up early and do this over. The ranks haven’t changed much, but certain guys have moved a lot, and I will try to identify which guys are most likely to move up or down by the time the June iteration of these rankings roll around.

Also — and this is totally unrelated — I think more readers were infuriated by my omission of Tommy Pham (who has all of one plate appearance this year) than my ranking of A.J. Pollock over Bryce Harper. Y’all crack me up sometimes.

You know the drill: I rank National League outfielders, you yell at me in the comments. Consider all rankings fluid within tiers but not between them (except at the top and bottom of each tier, perhaps). Normally, I would tell you that players should be reserved to their respective tiers, but I think there’s much more opportunity for movement here than ever before (ever before, in the context of me doing this since the beginning of last year). Lastly, if I omit a name, politely let me know in the comments.

Unless it’s Tommy Pham. Then shhhhhhhhhh.

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The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for 5/3


  1. SaberSim Conditions
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets
  6. Factor Grid

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OttoGraphs Episode 9: Player Value Changes

In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom and Joe discuss some players who have changed their value in the early going, specifically with respect to the Ottoneu FGPts format.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:





Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/


RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 05/03/2016

Episode 148 – The 18-8 White Sox!?

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Jon Gray’s outing, trusting in every hitter in the Giants lineup against Jon Moscot in Cincinnati, having no faith in anyone in the matchup in San Diego, Dylan’s five-year plan for podcast sponsorships, bad lefties representing DFS gold, looking at a few batter-versus-pitcher records (and recognizing how pointless they probably are), picking against Matt Wisler again, returning to Matt’s theory on the White Sox advance scouting department, Collin McHugh having bounceback potential, what would happen if Dylan and Matt ran a baseball team, Steven Wright, and baseball hats.

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Deep League Waiver Wire: East Bay Edition

The A’s may not boast one of the more prolific rotations in baseball but entering the season they certainly featured one of the deepest. Now with Felix Doubront lost to Tommy John Surgery and one of my favorite sleepers, Chris Bassitt, likely facing a similar fate, the rotation suddenly looks a tad shallower. So this week we look at two pitchers available in a vast majority of leagues who’ve either made it back to the East Bay or who we can expect to arrive there shortly.

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xK% and Potential Pitcher Strikeout Rate Decliners

Two years ago, I modified the first equation I developed to yield an improved expected strikeout rate formula. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates as per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter.

Yesterday, I discussed the starting pitchers whose xK% most exceed their actual strikeout rates. Today, I’ll look at the other side of the list — those starting pitchers whose actual strikeout rates most exceed their xK% marks. These pitchers are at significant risk for regression.

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Roto Riteup: May 3, 2016

I’ve long wanted to toy around with a league format where pitcher’s hitting stats – only the counting ones, not averages – are a bump to your team. It’s tough, because the value between pitchers in the two leagues is already a little askew, and N.L. arms would get a boost, but wouldn’t you love for one of your star pitchers to also give you this:

The Cardinals turn everyone into a hitter.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 339 – HURT Rankings


The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section:

Closer Updates

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