I love Trout, and own him for cheap in a long term dynasty, but you’d be hard pressed to convince me he’s going to repeat (let alone exceed) his 2012 stats. They are just insane, and I don’t see it happening again…for awhile. Great point that even if he goes .300/20/40 he’s still worthy of top 5 draft pick, but for those in auction leagues watch out – the risk of overbidding for something less than what you’re seeing now is sky high. That’s where the stability of guys like Braun, Miggy, and probably now McCutchen win out.
Comment by LuckyStrikes — October 2, 2012 @ 1:15 pm
Similar thought, but Matt Kemp merits some mention, too.
I think Ryan Braun also has a legit argument for #1 pick considering the overall package of skills. He’s got a .314 career AVG and has reeled off two straight seasons of .320+/100/30/110/30. His AVERAGE season over the last 4 years is .319/107/33/110/24.
He doesn’t have the SB upside of Trout but if you are going to go with an OF (in a non-keeper league especially) there is a good argument that he is the “safer” choice. Mike Trout could reasonably put up “only” a season of .300/115/25/75/45, which is a slightly worse overall package than a .320/105/35/110/25 Braun season.
I’m not sure you can really put McCutchen in the “stable” category yet. His numbers this year are very inflated compared to what he’s done in the past. Even if you argue that he has a good couple of “base” seasons I wouldn’t expect his next several seasons to look like this one. I think Braun and Miggy are more legitimate “stable” guys
^ list of people that will never top their career years =)
That being said, I always draft proven goods early on. I don’t want to be the guy buying a great rookie campaign and would take either Braun / Miggy if I had the 1st overall pick in a standard format league.
And MAYBE the talk of Trout’s defensive prowess will draw more people to defense-inclusive fantasy leagues, like Ottoneu?
Comment by Mario Mendoza of commenters — October 2, 2012 @ 3:19 pm
I don’t think Trout will top his WAR per game from this season, but in terms of fantasy he could very well have a better season than this one simply by playing 162 games. Do we really think his ceiling is 50 steals over 162 games? Or that he couldn’t hit 30 HR again with an extra 25 games played next season? If you assume this guy has another 7-8 “prime” years, then he’s probably likely to match or exceed his counting (fantasy) stats from this season in at least one of them.
Yes, Trout is amazing, but even if his 2013 projected stat line is more valuable than Miggy’s, you have to think that a statuesque CI carries SIGNIFICANTLY less injury risk than a speedy, athletic OF. No way do I consider Trout ahead of Miggy based on that alone.
Funny how the debate changes when you compare fantasy baseball to real baseball. In real baseball, Trout’s superb defense added to his bat and speed makes him the most valuable player in all of baseball this year. His WAR is through the roof! Meanwhile, Miggy is something of a burden defensively at third, so when he is not on the offensive side of the game he is a weak link for his team.
In fantasy sports, we love Cabrera’s 3B eligibility and it might make sense to name him MVP. Among sportswriters, Miggy’s likely Triple Crown will likely put him over the top as MVP. Among general managers and managers, I would find it hard to believe that Trout would not win easily, because is is a better all-around player. 10.7 wins above replacement is amazing, the highest number produced by a non-roid player since Cal Ripken in 1991!
Just reminding folks that Frank Robinson hit 38 HR in his rookie (20 yo) year back in 1956 and some people thought he had had his best year first. He beat his WAR for that year in six other years, reaping two MVP awards and also winning the Triple Crown in 1966. Trout began this year as his 20 yo season. This is Bryce Harper’s 19 yo season. When kids are good and in the majors at age 19-20, they are likely to become stars. Injuries, life-style and attitudes can get in the way but for healthy and dedicated kids who make it early? They are good bets for superstardom.