FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. Curious that this article makes no mention of Evan Longoria

    Comment by Eminor3rd — October 2, 2012 @ 12:50 pm

  2. Also, Trout is even more valuable in leagues that differentiate OF slots, like LF-CF-RF, or just CF and 2 OF (I play in one of these).

    Comment by mordecofe — October 2, 2012 @ 12:55 pm

  3. that is curious! Add him to the gaggle of third baseman that could join Cabrera at the top, obviously.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — October 2, 2012 @ 12:56 pm

  4. I love Trout, and own him for cheap in a long term dynasty, but you’d be hard pressed to convince me he’s going to repeat (let alone exceed) his 2012 stats. They are just insane, and I don’t see it happening again…for awhile. Great point that even if he goes .300/20/40 he’s still worthy of top 5 draft pick, but for those in auction leagues watch out – the risk of overbidding for something less than what you’re seeing now is sky high. That’s where the stability of guys like Braun, Miggy, and probably now McCutchen win out.

    Comment by LuckyStrikes — October 2, 2012 @ 1:15 pm

  5. Similar thought, but Matt Kemp merits some mention, too.

    Comment by davisnc — October 2, 2012 @ 1:23 pm

  6. I think Ryan Braun also has a legit argument for #1 pick considering the overall package of skills. He’s got a .314 career AVG and has reeled off two straight seasons of .320+/100/30/110/30. His AVERAGE season over the last 4 years is .319/107/33/110/24.

    He doesn’t have the SB upside of Trout but if you are going to go with an OF (in a non-keeper league especially) there is a good argument that he is the “safer” choice. Mike Trout could reasonably put up “only” a season of .300/115/25/75/45, which is a slightly worse overall package than a .320/105/35/110/25 Braun season.

    Comment by batpig — October 2, 2012 @ 1:25 pm

  7. I’m not sure you can really put McCutchen in the “stable” category yet. His numbers this year are very inflated compared to what he’s done in the past. Even if you argue that he has a good couple of “base” seasons I wouldn’t expect his next several seasons to look like this one. I think Braun and Miggy are more legitimate “stable” guys

    Comment by James — October 2, 2012 @ 1:35 pm

  8. I think it’s entirely possible that Harper is more valuable than Trout in 2013…

    Comment by LuckyStrikes — October 2, 2012 @ 1:41 pm

  9. Could be because Evan Longoria is extremely overrated in fantasy.

    Comment by Brandon Gray — October 2, 2012 @ 1:51 pm

  10. I’m not seeing it. Harper won’t hit for trout’s average or come close to him in terms of SB. Could hit more HR’s than him, though

    Comment by sausagemcbiscuit — October 2, 2012 @ 1:52 pm

  11. 2011 Ellsbury could have those .300/20/40 numbers.

    Comment by Sam — October 2, 2012 @ 1:56 pm

  12. With what sort of lines?

    Comment by James — October 2, 2012 @ 2:30 pm

  13. That is a good one, but if I’m betting on Trout or Ells to stay healthy…

    Comment by Eno Sarris — October 2, 2012 @ 2:33 pm

  14. 2009 Mauer, 2011 Ellsbury, 2012 Trout

    ^ list of people that will never top their career years =)

    That being said, I always draft proven goods early on. I don’t want to be the guy buying a great rookie campaign and would take either Braun / Miggy if I had the 1st overall pick in a standard format league.

    Call me a skeptic I guess.

    Comment by GUI — October 2, 2012 @ 3:02 pm

  15. And MAYBE the talk of Trout’s defensive prowess will draw more people to defense-inclusive fantasy leagues, like Ottoneu?

    Comment by Mario Mendoza of commenters — October 2, 2012 @ 3:19 pm

  16. I don’t think Trout will top his WAR per game from this season, but in terms of fantasy he could very well have a better season than this one simply by playing 162 games. Do we really think his ceiling is 50 steals over 162 games? Or that he couldn’t hit 30 HR again with an extra 25 games played next season? If you assume this guy has another 7-8 “prime” years, then he’s probably likely to match or exceed his counting (fantasy) stats from this season in at least one of them.

    Comment by James — October 2, 2012 @ 4:27 pm

  17. Yes, Trout is amazing, but even if his 2013 projected stat line is more valuable than Miggy’s, you have to think that a statuesque CI carries SIGNIFICANTLY less injury risk than a speedy, athletic OF. No way do I consider Trout ahead of Miggy based on that alone.

    Comment by NBH — October 2, 2012 @ 9:33 pm

  18. I would almost certainly take Braun first. I haven’t played in a 5×5 league in two years, though.

    Comment by byron — October 3, 2012 @ 1:15 am

  19. How the hell is Ottoneu “defense-inclusive?”

    Comment by byron — October 3, 2012 @ 1:16 am

  20. Funny how the debate changes when you compare fantasy baseball to real baseball. In real baseball, Trout’s superb defense added to his bat and speed makes him the most valuable player in all of baseball this year. His WAR is through the roof! Meanwhile, Miggy is something of a burden defensively at third, so when he is not on the offensive side of the game he is a weak link for his team.

    In fantasy sports, we love Cabrera’s 3B eligibility and it might make sense to name him MVP. Among sportswriters, Miggy’s likely Triple Crown will likely put him over the top as MVP. Among general managers and managers, I would find it hard to believe that Trout would not win easily, because is is a better all-around player. 10.7 wins above replacement is amazing, the highest number produced by a non-roid player since Cal Ripken in 1991!

    Comment by Radar — October 3, 2012 @ 9:25 pm

  21. Just reminding folks that Frank Robinson hit 38 HR in his rookie (20 yo) year back in 1956 and some people thought he had had his best year first. He beat his WAR for that year in six other years, reaping two MVP awards and also winning the Triple Crown in 1966. Trout began this year as his 20 yo season. This is Bryce Harper’s 19 yo season. When kids are good and in the majors at age 19-20, they are likely to become stars. Injuries, life-style and attitudes can get in the way but for healthy and dedicated kids who make it early? They are good bets for superstardom.

    Comment by Radar — October 3, 2012 @ 9:35 pm

  22. Anybody that doesn’t take Cabrera and/or Braun #1 and #2 is nuts and I hope they’re in my league.

    Comment by Bill Andrews — October 4, 2012 @ 11:59 am

  23. And what about Cargo

    Comment by stin — October 4, 2012 @ 12:59 pm

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