To be fair, I had them within pennies of each other. But these are my respective projections for AVG-HR-RBI-RUN-SB
Ichiro’s actual stat line was pretty close to my projection, but he didn’t remain in the 3 hole in the Mariners lineup long enough to get to 80 RBIs. My Stanton projection was almost too optimistic because of the missed time, but the average was the killer for me. There was no reason to project a .290 average.
Just by eyeballing the stat lines, I don’t think anyone would realize that they are valued similarly. I’m sure most would guess Stanton would be worth more, which isn’t true. So I don’t think the prediction was really all that bold. Did you disagree with the two projections?
30 steals in a short time frame is far far from worthless it is actually much more valuable then 30 steals over a season as you then drop/IR the player adding at least replacement level production. Replacement level for 1/2 a season + elite stolen bases for the other half is a very valuable roster spot, especially if we are talking about 12-team pool as well. I can’t buy your win on that pick.
I must commend you however on your Minor, Sale and Bailey picks. Even if I believe you are 2-10 I feel your misses ( safe #5 ) are all reasonably close and insightful for bold predictions, especially compared to a lot of the other fangraphs lists.
Comment by herve houchoua — October 4, 2012 @ 2:12 pm
Yes, you are correct. But I have to take these predictions strictly by value and full-season value, Bonifacio was worthless, because of the injury. It’s a cheap win, but others have counted losses because of injuries, so it goes both ways.
Comment by trailofhoney — October 8, 2012 @ 9:21 pm
That’s a toughie. I don’t think Altuve has a whole lot of upside. Given his size, he won’t be much more than a 10 HR guy. We’ve seen what Headley could do now, obviously, and now the worry is just of how much regression we might see. I think guys like Altuve in the middle infield come around a lot more often and since Headley also steals bases in the teens, it’s really hard to not choose him. Though if you can make trades, I’d try to find an owner who really believes and see what you could do on the trade front.
The only reasons these were on the same continent was because Giancarlo got hurt & Ichiro was traded. Without both of those, this would’ve played out even worse. Stanton finished 21 spots ahead of Ichiro on the ESPN player rater despite playing 39 fewer games. Let’s be honest, this wasn’t a very good idea from the start and it played out as such despite two unforeseen overwhelming advantages in your favor.
I’m a huge Ichiro fan and I was happy to see his season rebound w/NYY, but this prediction was never really coming true. Consider Stanton’s .290 a trade for the games missed because he beat your HR number and matched the SB number with just 123 games.