FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. Harper and Trout succeeded because they were considered two of the best prospects of all time.

    really.
    I imagine their talent had something to do with it as well.

    Comment by bSpittle — October 4, 2012 @ 3:33 pm

  2. Pretty ultimate statement. Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor scoff.

    Comment by Matt — October 4, 2012 @ 3:54 pm

  3. I definitely agree with #1. I cut Morse last year and Medlen this year. I probably would have won last year if I didn’t cut Morse. This year I won- I cut Medlen when I needed a starter- for Marco Estrada. Estrada was good, but Medlen was simply lights out in the 2nd half and I would have put the league away much earlier.

    Comment by Michael — October 4, 2012 @ 3:55 pm

  4. this is a stupid comment.

    Comment by Cliff — October 4, 2012 @ 4:03 pm

  5. Was Reddick a prospect this year? Man am I glad I drafted him.

    Comment by zach — October 4, 2012 @ 5:50 pm

  6. The point holds, but it didn’t take Bruce “years” to reach fantasy relevance. He’s always been relevant, he just hasn’t always been among the very best outfielders.

    Comment by almondson — October 4, 2012 @ 6:19 pm

  7. Point #1 is huge. On July 21, I was in 4th place in my 12-team dynasty league, but a full 30 points out of first. My pitching was solid, but my offense included everyone (or so it seemed) that had gotten off to a bad start, been injured, or both: Pujols, Pedroia, Zimmerman, Napoli, Rickie Weeks, etc. I came very close to selling off whatever pieces I could for prospects and draft picks. But I didn’t, I believed in the talent. And got lucky, too…. Just looked it up, and 11 of my 12 core hitters improved post-ASB, five of them by 140 or more points of OPS, and I won my league. (I know, “Cool story, bro’…” but just wanted to reinforce Chris’ point.)

    Comment by dprat — October 4, 2012 @ 6:45 pm

  8. I came SO CLOSE to dealing Pujols in May. Now I’ve won the championship and I feel rewarded, even if he still was somewhat of a letdown on the whole.

    Comment by Congo Hammer — October 4, 2012 @ 8:20 pm

  9. I DID deal Pujols in May (for Ryan Zimmerman and LoMo), and finished 3rd in my league. Zimmerman came back somewhat, but I wonder if I could’ve won by hanging on to Pujols.

    Comment by jrogers — October 4, 2012 @ 10:45 pm

  10. I dealt Pujols for McCutchen in a dynasty league in June . While McCutchen faded late,I just missed winning the league championship by 4 points and I really like McCutchen vs Pujols over the next 8 years or so .

    Comment by dirck — October 5, 2012 @ 9:12 am

  11. The tricky thing about point #1 is that every year there are HUGE finds in free agency in the first weeks of April. This year in my main league, for example, Fernando Rodney, Allen Craig, Kyle Lohse, Chase Headley and Josh Reddick were all picked up in the first 10 days of the season. So it’s good to preach patience, and I think most owners that read FanGraphs realize that it’s a long season, but often times it behooves you to make a move sooner rather than later.

    Comment by AWS — October 5, 2012 @ 10:17 am

  12. Re point 1, I would argue that you could just as easily say cut bait when the right opporutnity arises. For everyone who dumped Goldschmidt or Ryan Zimmerman too early, there is somebody who hung on to Uggla or Hosmer way too long.

    Comment by Bob — October 5, 2012 @ 12:20 pm

  13. The point to #2 is to not make the exception the rule. Shouldn’t that apply to #1 as well? You picked out a couple of players that reverted back to form, and then some posters pointed out they made great additions with guys that started off slowly.

    OTOH, how many people waited patiently for-
    Ellsbury
    Lincecum
    Lester, Beckett, J Upton, Napoli, Castro, etc.?

    It’s been said before, but patience has killed as many roto teams as impatience.

    Comment by Joebreidey — October 5, 2012 @ 12:21 pm

  14. The secret is to hold the guys who turn it around & dump the ones who don’t. And pick up the ones who will continue to outperform expectations while letting somebody else take the flukes. See how simple it is?

    Comment by JR — October 5, 2012 @ 6:37 pm

  15. yeah, exactly. I too often practice patience with my draftees and can’t afford a roster spot for Peavy after 2 good starts and the numerous other examples from every year. Its one thing to be patient if the guy is sporting a hosmer-like inexplicable BABIP but its another thing to hold on to someone who you think should have trade value if he can just string a few weeks together and by the time he does you missed out on some break outs.

    Beware of patience. Its way over rated.

    Comment by Richard — October 5, 2012 @ 6:48 pm

  16. I’d say the inverse of #1 has always helped me a lot. As in, pick up the free agents that other people dump after cold starts. It always seems like playing the waiver wire in the first two weeks pays the biggest dividends as people drop players who are underperforming their draft expectations.

    Comment by Ben — October 8, 2012 @ 1:02 am

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