I definitely agree with #1. I cut Morse last year and Medlen this year. I probably would have won last year if I didn’t cut Morse. This year I won- I cut Medlen when I needed a starter- for Marco Estrada. Estrada was good, but Medlen was simply lights out in the 2nd half and I would have put the league away much earlier.
Point #1 is huge. On July 21, I was in 4th place in my 12-team dynasty league, but a full 30 points out of first. My pitching was solid, but my offense included everyone (or so it seemed) that had gotten off to a bad start, been injured, or both: Pujols, Pedroia, Zimmerman, Napoli, Rickie Weeks, etc. I came very close to selling off whatever pieces I could for prospects and draft picks. But I didn’t, I believed in the talent. And got lucky, too…. Just looked it up, and 11 of my 12 core hitters improved post-ASB, five of them by 140 or more points of OPS, and I won my league. (I know, “Cool story, bro’…” but just wanted to reinforce Chris’ point.)
I dealt Pujols for McCutchen in a dynasty league in June . While McCutchen faded late,I just missed winning the league championship by 4 points and I really like McCutchen vs Pujols over the next 8 years or so .
The tricky thing about point #1 is that every year there are HUGE finds in free agency in the first weeks of April. This year in my main league, for example, Fernando Rodney, Allen Craig, Kyle Lohse, Chase Headley and Josh Reddick were all picked up in the first 10 days of the season. So it’s good to preach patience, and I think most owners that read FanGraphs realize that it’s a long season, but often times it behooves you to make a move sooner rather than later.
Re point 1, I would argue that you could just as easily say cut bait when the right opporutnity arises. For everyone who dumped Goldschmidt or Ryan Zimmerman too early, there is somebody who hung on to Uggla or Hosmer way too long.
The point to #2 is to not make the exception the rule. Shouldn’t that apply to #1 as well? You picked out a couple of players that reverted back to form, and then some posters pointed out they made great additions with guys that started off slowly.
OTOH, how many people waited patiently for-
Lester, Beckett, J Upton, Napoli, Castro, etc.?
It’s been said before, but patience has killed as many roto teams as impatience.
The secret is to hold the guys who turn it around & dump the ones who don’t. And pick up the ones who will continue to outperform expectations while letting somebody else take the flukes. See how simple it is?
yeah, exactly. I too often practice patience with my draftees and can’t afford a roster spot for Peavy after 2 good starts and the numerous other examples from every year. Its one thing to be patient if the guy is sporting a hosmer-like inexplicable BABIP but its another thing to hold on to someone who you think should have trade value if he can just string a few weeks together and by the time he does you missed out on some break outs.
I’d say the inverse of #1 has always helped me a lot. As in, pick up the free agents that other people dump after cold starts. It always seems like playing the waiver wire in the first two weeks pays the biggest dividends as people drop players who are underperforming their draft expectations.