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  1. I’ve dropped and acquired Stewart 3x this year. I always guess wrong on his good weeks. I’m going to stick with him at 2B for the next few weeks and pray he meets his ZIPs projections.

    Comment by Dan — June 9, 2009 @ 3:25 pm

  2. I have no problem with selling high on Michael Young. What I am having trouble with is identifying a suitable replacement SS that I am not also buying high on. Aside from Hanley most of the top tier guys look to have a downward trend ROS in their stats right? Recommendations on a target?

    Comment by Schmitty — June 9, 2009 @ 7:11 pm

  3. I was proposed Bedard and Antonio Bastardo for Dan Haren? I Have Haren. What do I do?

    Comment by Miller — June 9, 2009 @ 9:10 pm

  4. Actually, Miller, that’s a tough one. Haren’s got a crazy first/second half split for his career, and Bedard may end up in a favorable situation for wins at least. Bastardo is looking good, too. I’d still say no, as Brian is right about the strand rate, and there are few parks as pitching-favorable as Seattle.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — June 9, 2009 @ 9:20 pm

  5. I’d say Stephen Drew is the best buy-low SS target out there right now. You can probably flip Young for Drew and get a nice upgrade elsewhere in the deal. You could also package Young with someone for J-Roll or sub Drew out for Alexei Ramirez.

    Comment by Mike N. — June 9, 2009 @ 9:57 pm

  6. Say no and keep Haren.

    Comment by Jonny — June 10, 2009 @ 8:46 pm

  7. JJ Hardy is a great buy low candidate in my mind right now. He is very streaky, and usually he finds away to even out long slumps like this by going on big hot streaks. Maybe he has one in store for the second half…..

    Comment by R M — June 11, 2009 @ 11:12 am

  8. I have an offer of Theriot for Bedard as I’ve been advertising that Bedard is available in exchange for SS help. I’m getting killed at SS in a deep league with Reyes out, there’s no one on the WW worth thinking about, and not too many teams have depth at SS since it is a 14 team league that includes MI position. Who do you see at that position as having similar value to Bedard. I always have a difficult time valuing hitters against pitchers.

    Comment by Chad — June 11, 2009 @ 2:14 pm

  9. Don’t waste time evaluating hitters against pitchers or v.v. Evaluate your league and where you are in the standings.

    It’s impossible to say what SS would have similar value as Bedard TO YOU without knowing who’s on your team, where you rank in each category, and where your competition is in each category. If your rotation is Santana, Lincecum, Haren, and Sabathia, then Bedard will have less value TO YOU than he would to someone with a lousy rotation. My guess is your rotation’s not nearly that good.

    Unless Hits and Runs are tightly bunched in your league and you can make up a lot of ground there, a guy like Theriot’s not gonna be the answer. Look for the SS’s who will gain you more offensive points than you’d lose on the pitching side without Bedard. Hopefully, you can find one on a contending team with a lousy rotation that could make up ground if it had Bedard – that owner will value Bedard very highly.

    Comment by John Galt — June 13, 2009 @ 3:00 pm

  10. Brian,

    You mention Stewart’s 244 BABIP (232 now, actually) and ridiculously low Coors Field Avg as reasons why we’ll see marked improvement over the second half.

    One thing I noticed though is his LD %. It’s 12.5% this year vs. 25% last year – TWICE as high. It’s a factor in his lower BABIP for sure, as a higher LD rate correlates with a more sustainably higher BABIP.

    His FB rate – which induces a lower BABIP – is 50%, really high even for power hitters.

    I mention all this because with no AVG numbers available for Hit Ball Rates on players’ stat pages, it’s tough to see exactly where Stewart falls as far as those rates go.

    MORE importantly, it would be very helpful if you guys developed a metric called “expected BABIP”… that is, considering a player’s Hit Ball Rates, what would we expect his BABIP to be? A guy like Robbie Cano, cause of his LD rate could be expected to have a higher and more sustainable BABIP than 09 Stewart, where as Stewart could be expected to have a lower BABIP (though not as low as it is now).

    The standard # for judging BABIP against is 300. But we consistently see the best hitters post BABIPS much higher than that. So what are the appropriate baseline BABIPS for players with different types of Hit Ball Rates.

    Perhaps dividing Hit Ball Rates into categories like these could help, placing players into the categories in which they most closely belong and then determining the expected BABIP for hit ball rates of those configurations: High LD, MED GB, LOW FB. Med LD, High GB, Low FB, etc etc etc…


    Comment by Alex Roberts — July 10, 2009 @ 11:52 am

  11. Alex -

    Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix developed a new model for BABIP that you might find interesting. You can read about it here:

    Comment by Brian Joura — July 10, 2009 @ 11:57 am

  12. Wow.

    Comment by R M — October 24, 2009 @ 5:02 pm

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