It’s not just you who fell victim to poor quantitative reasoning with Strasburg, it was nearly every expert. In March, you said: “Really, this simply comes down to his innings limit.” But if you look to my post in the comments section, I listed what kind of stats you needed from the 40-60 IP from the replacement pitcher(s) to equate to other elite starters. The numbers were pedestrian at best. Of course, I was using the free FG projections (James, Rotochamp, et al) and not yours so it’s possible your numbers were much more bearish on Stras to begin with.
Btw, I feel like the guy complaining all the time haha. I click on your articles and comment on them because they’re thought-provoking and quant heavy. Frankly, your advice is elite in terms of drafting and managing so yeah…not trying to be dick.
Totally cool, I appreciate your comments. I mentioned in my blurb that I projected Strasburg at a 3.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The ERA was higher than the other FG projections, WHIP was in line. It’s important to remember though that the dollar values are based strictly on the production of the player and does not take into account any replacement level production. This is one of the difficulties in player valuation- do you value a roster slot (Strasburg + replacement) or just the player himself?