Wasn’t there an article written a while back showing that Butler could be a fluke given his drop in FB% and his HR/FB% ratio looking completely unsustainable? His FB% has never been good for a power hitter, but this year it dropped an additional 7%, his GB% rose more than 1.5%. The only number in his batted ball profile that looks good is his very sexy 23.9% line drives.
So, if he’s going to be able to sustain this rate of power, his FB% needs to get much better OR his LD% must stay at similar levels and he needs to just absolutely scorch every one that he hits. Don’t get me wrong, I like Butler for next year, but I’m worried I’m not going to see 30ish HR’s again.
Comment by Stuck in a slump — October 16, 2012 @ 9:56 am
I agree that he will be overated next year going into drafts. His age portends he has room future growth, but his underlying number show that he is the same basic player as in years past save for a nearly doubled HR/FB. His number of extra base hits for the 3 years prior are consistent ~62. It appears he simply turned a few doubles into HRs this season. I liked him much better after 2009 coming off 71 XBH at 23 years old.
I won’t spend a mid-round draft pick for a guy who looks to have just touched the ceiling of his potential. His profit margin for 2013 will be diminished due to his higher ADP. Next year I see .305/70/23/95.