Good point. Is this an absolute certainty? I remember hearing about it and then completely forgot when I wrote the article. This could really help Mariners hitters obviously, though the exact effect won’t be known.
Most of Ackley’s power is to right-center, where the fences come in 4 feet, and right, where the fence are not moving. The bigger changes to the fence is to left centre (12 feet) and left, where moving the scoreboard halves the height of the fence. Ackley will benefit some but not nearly as much as a right-handed pull hitter.
I think there’s a bit more to worry about than just the AVG. The R+RBI–although largely beyond Ackley’s control–are still major question marks.
The surest way to accumulate RBIs is to have a high ISO and to have a Miguel Cabrera-esque number of batters on base ahead of him. Can we imagine either of these things improving for Ackley? As a previous commenter pointed out, the walls are (allegedly) coming in at Safeco…but it probably won’t change Ackley’s ISO as the gains will largely be seen in RHB. Now, that fact should provide some generalized lift to the Ms offense, but how much? If you push them up to 650 runs (+5% ballpark lift), they’d still be the lowest scoring offense in the league.
Which basically means that the bull case rests largely on a regression in babip and a predicted breakout of HR/FB and/or LD%…which, of course, isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Where does everyone thinkn think Ackley, Kipnis, and Johnson will go in a 12 team draft?
I play in an auction OBP/SLG league (replacing Avg/HR) and haven’t thought about draft picks for several years, but I can give you dollar values.
Ackley: $1; Johnson: $3; Kipnis: $8.
Mostly because of Kipnis’s steals and marginally better hitting, and Johnson’s ability to hit 20-25 home runs. I’ve soured big time on Ackley and would only go for him if I had a spot on my bench for a flier. Depending on what sleepers/prospects were available, I might not even draft him.
In 2012, Ackley had a fly ball BABIP of .063. That’s where the ISO went. For reference, a .063 fly ball BABIP, if posted by an entire team, would be the lowest fly ball BABIP since 2003 by .019. If you ignore the 2012 Mariners, it would be the lowest by .036. Anyone believe he’s going to repeat that next year? …no takers? A massive ISO jump for Ackley next year is not only plausible but expected.
Comment by ThirteenOfTwo — October 28, 2012 @ 8:48 pm