He was stealing (not to mention hitting) very well early on until his hammy got all messed up around June and his season went into the tank. He really had a lot of trouble making contact in the second half, though. Really made me wonder if there isn’t a way to rebuild his swing because a major league hitter should not get beat as often as he does.
Comment by dougiejays — October 22, 2012 @ 3:44 pm
Much was made last year after the hill/johnson swap about Kevin Towers hating K rates. Is there an analytical basis to this? In other words, should we be more skeptical about Johnson’s ability to recapture his contact skills after his last 3 years?
I think this is just the kind of player Johnson is.
3 of the last 4 years he’s hit 220ish, with an obp 303-313. The only thing that’s fluctuated is his power – iso .140 – .191, and slg 365-413.
If you assume that the avg & obp are his true talent level, then you’re left with figuring out his power contribution. If you average out those 3 seasons, you’re looking at MAYBE a 700 ops.
Comment by lexomatic — October 22, 2012 @ 10:58 pm
He never had any contact skills. The 15% rate was in half a season and was by far the best of his career (in a season where he hit .224 btw). I don’t know why it is presented as some attained skill level above, but any reasonable person would dismiss it as fluky, since his rates before and after have been north of 20%.