A-Rod may be declining, but he is hardly going to be useless. He was hitting before he broke his wrist. He had… 3 xbh afterwards? Howmuch more obvious could it be that he was not healthy at any point after that injury? Something so obvious couldn’t have been missed by those who play “expert statistician” on the weekends.
He was even hitting over .300 as the DH, a role which he will be playing more and more going forward.
Sure there will be a power decline, but a complete power “outage” like this past month and a half? Nope.
Frankly, I think your fantasy analysis of Chipper sells him a good bit short, especially for OPS leagues. Chipper kicked off the first year of his “Five Years of Decline” with a glorious .364/.470/.574 slash line, and even though his last four years featured spotty playing time, Chipper topped an .800 OPS every season, including 2012. I’ve got no clue what sort of people would look at Chipper’s 2012 season and “feel that he took too long to call it quits” – he put up a 3.0 WAR in only 112 games and his OPS was better than all other NL 3B aside from ARam, Wright, Headley and Freese. In summary, Chipper was amazing.
Comment by AtlantaCrackers — November 1, 2012 @ 12:59 pm
I don’t think A-Rod will age as well as Chipper. A-Rod is playing on a bum hip. That’s what has accelerated his decline more than anything.
Additionally, Chipper Jones always gave you quality AB’s. He has a much stronger mental game than A-Rod. Let’s face the freakin’ facts: A-Rod is a mental/emotional disaster. Even before the physical decline, there would be times when A-Rod got flustered where he obviously lost focus, and AB’s were over before they began.
A-Rod hasn’t had a 12.7% BB rate since 2009. Last year, his walk rate was 9.6%. It was 11% in 2009. The last time Chipper Jones posted a walk rate as low as 11.2% was 1997. Since 1997, Jones has walked more than he struck out every year but three. A-Rod never had such a year. In 2012, A-Rod struck-out 2.3 times more often than he walked.
Hitting is mental as much as physical. Chipper Jones obviously has better skills when it comes to selecting quality pitches to hit. He also seems like a much more emotionally stable individual.
A-Rod is more likely to chase bad pitches. He has the surgically-repaired hip. I don’t think that he is going to age as well as Chipper, who probably could hang on a few more years as a part-time DH if wanted to.
A-Rod has more baggage. He’s “A-Rod.” He’s getting paid as though he’s the best player in the game, and he’s a shell of his former self. The premise for the mega-contracts was all the records he would be breaking, and everyone knows that those records are fraudulent.
Comment by waynetolleson — November 1, 2012 @ 2:57 pm
I agree that they are not similar hitters in any fashion.
Keep in mind that A-Rod get’s cheaper going forward.
13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
If he can hit .270/.370/.470 with 20-25hr for the remainder of his deal, he’ll be productive enough. Any years he does better than that (which can and does happen with older players the longer they are removed from taking the drugs) will be gravy at this point.
What they need to do is get a 3B so he can move into more of a DH role to keep him healthy. Not having his hand broken by one of the best pitchers in the league can only help.
I see your analysis here. However, the hip issue is what worries me. A hip injury ended Bo Jackson’s career. He played some baseball after that, but was never the same.
A-Rod’s going to be 38-years-old next season. He’s already four or five years past an age where you’d expect a normal decline and A-Rod has been playing every day since he was twenty-years-old. He has always played shortstop or third base, and up until the hip issue, A-Rod was also good for 20-30 SB’s a year.
We’ve seen Ortiz have a couple terrible post-steroids years, and the past couple years, he’s actually been quite good. But Ortiz has hardly played the field, and he isn’t playing on a surgically-repaired hip.
And he’s a free agent! No team has to sign him if they don’t want. The Yankees have to pay A-Rod.
Hey, Brian Cashman told them so. The Tampa “Brain Trust” have no one to blame but themselves here.
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Comment by mookjing881 — November 1, 2012 @ 10:04 pm
Yes he was. If he’s not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, then they should close the place down.
Comment by BronxBomber — November 2, 2012 @ 6:19 pm