FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. Mother of God, you mean to tell me only ONE Mariner outperformed his xBABIP, and he wasn’t even a full-time player? That’s absurd. Casper Wells was the only lucky one, with a BABIP that exceeded his xBABIP by .008. The second luckiest was Kyle Seager… with a BABIP worse than his xBABIP by .0177. And John Jaso and his 140 wRC+ was the 17th-unluckiest hitter in the league?

    …so are the Mariners universally criminally underrated hitters, or does xBABIP need park factors?

    Comment by ThirteenOfTwo — November 15, 2012 @ 4:45 pm

  2. BABIP already excludes home runs, foul territory at Safeco is relatively neutral, and we lack evidence in support of marine layers boosting defensive range. No, the M’s were simply, and quite incredibly, crappy and unlucky in 2012. Crunlappucky, as the kids would say. I would love to see the exact opposite in 2013.

    Huge thanks for the list, Eno!

    Comment by Choo — November 15, 2012 @ 5:14 pm

  3. Wooo-hooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Comment by Train — November 15, 2012 @ 7:52 pm

  4. Excellent work, Eno.

    Comment by Andrew — November 15, 2012 @ 9:54 pm

  5. AAAAAAMazing.

    Comment by jcxy — November 15, 2012 @ 10:34 pm

  6. Does this still account for the shift for players like Dunn and Teixeira. I could be way off here but I noticed those two were near the top of the list and thought that their babip was not going to act as expected.

    Comment by Guest — November 15, 2012 @ 11:20 pm

  7. Interesting stat: the 2012 Mariners’ team BABIP on fly balls, at .082, was the lowest team BABIP on fly balls any team has posted since 2003 (when league average was so low I think there must have been a change in what constitutes a fly ball). By .016.

    Guys I think I know where all the doubles went

    Comment by ThirteenOfTwo — November 16, 2012 @ 1:29 am

  8. Nice job. It is very useful to know who was lucky or not, relatively speaking. I hate it that so many of my fantasy players were near the bottom of the list this year! I would have rather been lucky than good.

    Just two questions…1) I wonder as well if this accounts for shifts and 2) if the formula for xBAPIP was working right, shouldn’t there be roughly equal numbers of lucky vs. unluckily hitters? It looks to me the list is heavily weighted to the unlucky side with more than twice as many hard luck players than lucky ones….

    Comment by Robert Sargent — November 16, 2012 @ 8:35 am

  9. 1) no, not directly, there’s no fangraphs stat that helps to indicate whether or not someone is being shifted.
    2) I’m not sure why this is happening, the equation is based on previous data, not this years data, and things change from year to year (new ballparks, shorter fences, maybe more line drives are classified as fly balls, maybe better defensive positioning). I wonder if the league BABIP is down (I’m too lazy to check).

    Comment by slash12 — November 16, 2012 @ 9:05 am

  10. Thanks Eno!

    Comment by JohnnyBigPotatoes — November 16, 2012 @ 12:46 pm

  11. Hey Eno, it looks like the spreadsheet is using the “2009-2011 average” constants, rather than the 2012 constants.

    Comment by JohnnyBigPotatoes — December 1, 2012 @ 6:15 pm

  12. The number repetitively successful hitters around the top section of the “lucky” section makes me think there’s got to be something off with xBABIP.
    I’ve heard in the past, without going into it, that there’s evidence hitters have more control over BABIP results than do pitchers, with advanced and proprietary evidence that even pitchers can have a very small amount of control, presumably based on batted ball type tendencies. I’m going to have to look at xBABIP more. Either way, great data to see, and thank you for sharing it like this.

    Comment by Nevin — December 3, 2012 @ 1:00 pm

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