FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. pretty surprising Wainwright wouldn’t make these lists… esepcially given that guys like Pineda and AJ Griffin and Luebke are making it

    Comment by jon — November 23, 2012 @ 9:27 am

  2. No Dickey!

    Comment by Schu — November 23, 2012 @ 9:52 am

  3. whoa, how did Pineda make that list? Aren’t torn labrum’s pretty dicey to come back from? even if he was healthy I don’t know if he makes this list. Beachy James has only pitching 70ip, I don’t know how he gets that many K’s.

    I have a lot of respect for James, but somehow I have to question whether James is actually putting together this data after awhile, the projections are consistently too optomistic for both hitters and batters.

    Comment by Bill — November 23, 2012 @ 9:55 am

  4. Along with what jon said in a way, no Jordan Zimmermann in the house anywhere?

    Comment by Ben — November 23, 2012 @ 10:35 am

  5. Re: Beachy: That list uses the Bill James K-rate and projects it for 200 IP.

    Comment by Sam P — November 23, 2012 @ 11:47 am

  6. I gotta disagree with James on Verlander’s ranking and Medlen. I just can’t see how Medlen will be, or even could be, better than Verlander, add that to the fact that Gio doesn’t break into the top 20 and I’m really skeptical.

    Going back three years Verlander has been the best pitcher in the majors, and Gio ranks as the #15 overall pitcher. I think James weighs the past year’s numbers a little too heavily for my taste when it comes to pitching.

    Comment by Stuck in a slump — November 23, 2012 @ 12:43 pm

  7. So R.A. Dickey — with a 24.8 % K rate, a 5.8 % BB rate, a 2.73 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, 20 Wins, and 230 K’s — doesn’t make this list.

    How does that work?

    And why are Wins, ERA, and WHIP — team-dependent metrics — even factored into a list ranking pitchers? Oh, that’s right…this is fantasy baseball, not the real thing. Even so, why is Dickey omitted, since his numbers in the fantasy categories crush the majority of the pitchers who made these lists? Is Bill James really an anti-knuckleball analyst? Wow. So much for “advanced metrics.” And, fantasy or not, Zimmerman says:

    “Also for the second list, I removed Wins and Saves from the calculations. This ranking represents more of the pitcher’s talent level instead of his role and the talent around him.”

    You removed Wins and Saves but left ERA and WHIP, and that eliminates the factor of the talent around him? Cue the Rod Serling narration:

    “You’re on a popular fantasy baseball website, reading a ranking of Major League pitchers…but this is no ordinary fantasy site, and these are no ordinary rankings…for you’ve just crossed over into…the 1960’s.”

    Comment by Brother Fox — November 23, 2012 @ 2:24 pm

  8. Uh, wow. James thinks Tom Wilhelmsen is going to get more saves than all but five of the relievers in the top 20, and he didn’t even make the list? That’s a weird projection, too… I wonder why he thinks the K rate is going to fall below any of Tom’s previous years and the BB rate is going to climb back to 2011 levels? The BABIP and the HR/9, OK, I can see why you’d regress those up, but why the strikeouts?

    Huh.

    Comment by ThirteenOfTwo — November 23, 2012 @ 3:48 pm

  9. Are you serious? These ranking are strictly based off the Bill James Projections for next year. Yes, Dickey is not seen by the projections as a top 20 pitcher and Mike Podhorzer talks about it here:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/bill-james-projections-fun-pitcher-surprises-edition/

    If you think the numbers, especially the strikeouts, are too low, you can complain here:

    http://www.billjamesonline.com/

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — November 23, 2012 @ 4:17 pm

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    Comment by nvcxbviu — November 24, 2012 @ 3:49 am

  11. Agreed – he definitely belongs in the top 15 – much prefer him over Latos

    Comment by NBH — November 25, 2012 @ 2:08 pm

  12. Agreed – case in point – Latos. Seems like an 75% chance he turns in an ERA between 3.40 and 3.75, but James has him at 3.14.

    Comment by NBH — November 25, 2012 @ 2:10 pm

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    Comment by Shauncore — November 26, 2012 @ 10:55 am

  14. So Dan Haren could be a super buy-low, then? I assume he’s gonna fall big time in most 2013 drafts compared to 2012. I didn’t see much of him this season to know if it was mostly his back that plagued him, or if there was real skill deterioration.

    Comment by Dan — November 26, 2012 @ 7:17 pm

  15. “this ranking represents more of his talent level” is not the same as “this ranking eliminates other factors”. you are trying too hard

    Comment by juan pierres mustache — November 27, 2012 @ 11:22 am

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