Chat transcript is available below!
Chat transcript is available below!
On Wednesday, I asked for help to verify historic preseason closer situations and how those roless held up. Today, I will task your memory and ask for help with two more seasons. After getting these two seasons straightened out, I’ll call it quits on the collection process and begin the analysis next week.
Please look over your favorite team and make sure the information is correct. Additionally, look over the situation with question marks as the information I gathered was vague. Finally, here is the meanings of each column. Read the rest of this entry »
Two weeks ago we kicked off our ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Joe Douglas, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).
This time of year, it’s not only about identifying likely draft-day targets, it’s also about identifying players who represent poor values and are better to bypass selecting. A top-100 pick is too rich for my blood for a sophomore catcher with some scary underlying numbers and other check marks in the cons column. Power is the calling card of another sophomore, and he calls a great ballpark home for accentuating that skill. Furthermore, he might be more than a one-dimensional slugger. Read the rest of this entry »
The purpose of this post is not to evaluate Tommy Joseph. At least, not in the usual sense. We’re here today to talk about dynasty assets. Specifically, the kinds of assets that are hard to value. Joseph is a great example. Ryan Schimpf is another. If you want, you guys can supply another dozen names in the comments.
Do you know much about Joseph? Let’s explore.
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
Strategy Section: Chicago White Sox Breakdown
Harrison had surgery to repair his thumb in July 2015, and he returned at less than 100 percent. The following offseason, his training was designed to avoid putting too much weight on his thumb joint. Even during the first half of ’16, especially in cold weather, Harrison’s thumb became stiff and often stung.
“To be honest, I didn’t really feel it come back until right before I got hurt,” Harrison said.
Examining Harrison batted ball stats, there is a mixed message with his 2016 exit velocity dropping 1 mph while and increase in his launch angle led to more distance (+11 ft). The more I dug, I found very little to support a 2017 rebound. He was not productive before the 2015 injury. He never improved over the 2016 season. I may give him a small bump in value because he may have played through injuries but I think the 29-year-old may have peaked in 2014 and is just headed downhill. With him approaching 30, his one good trait, steals, may also be in jeopardy.
We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
Over the past few weeks I have been writing about xStats outliers, and to date I have covered Gary Sanchez, Trea Turner, and Jay Bruce. You may think Jay Bruce is the odd man out on that short list, but all three of these guys have big question marks around their power potential for different reasons, and you can read the three pieces for more information. Today I want to focus on Trevor Story.
Trevor Story became a national sensation after he hit 7 home runs in his first 28 plate appearances, then hit 7 more over the course of the next few weeks. Two months into his rookie season and the guy had 14 home runs, only nine shortstops hit more than 14 home runs through the whole of the 2015 season, three of whom had 15. His power persisted through the warm mid summer months, where he hit five home runs in June and eight more in July prior to suffering a season ending thumb injury on August 2nd.
Trevor Story hit 27 home runs, slugged .567, had a .272 batting average over the course of 415 plate appearances last season. His power numbers have him ranked as the seventh best short stop – eighth if you count Trea Turner- and his ADP appears to have stabilized somewhere between 30 and 34. Of course, you may ask, is this power sustainable? Read the rest of this entry »
Over the last couple of years, I have run the “Steamer and I” series, pitting our hitter wOBA and pitcher ERA projections against each other and discussing the players our forecasts differ the most for. I’m going to do things a little bit differently this year by focusing on individual stat categories, identifying a group of players I’m significantly more bullish on compared to Steamer, and vice versa, in that metric.
We’ll start with home runs. I will be comparing my home run Pod Projections to Steamer, which have been extrapolated to the same number of at-bats I’m forecasting. Today, we’ll look at the hitters I’m most bullish on versus Steamer.