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  1. “Technically, he is no longer eligible in the outfield as he only played first base (52 games) and DH (93 games), but because he qualified there in 2012, we have him listed as such.”
    He started 5 games in LF in 2012, which qualifies him as an OF in some leagues(Ottoneu for one)

    Comment by TheOneWhoKnocks — December 4, 2012 @ 10:18 pm

  2. His HR/FB was 29% last year, and he only had 16 doubles. Doesn’t this seem kind of unsustainable? It would be good to know what his average flyball distance was compared to the rest of his career (I looked but couldn’t find it.)

    Comment by R M — December 4, 2012 @ 11:06 pm

  3. to go with the crazy HR/FB, his FB% has been falling over the last 3 years, which is always a clear sign of decline in a power hitter. fewer FBs and fewer of those FBs going over the fence means his HR total is going to drop. even bill james only has him hitting 33 HRs next year, so howard’s rose-colored glasses are bordering on sanguine.

    i’m not staying away because of his AVG, i’m staying away because on top of that he’s going to underperform his draft position in the category he’s supposedly best at.

    Comment by johnnycuff` — December 5, 2012 @ 10:58 am

  4. It’s not so much that I’m looking at Dunn through rose-colored glasses, it’s that I believe there is more to it with him than just straight-up looking at the numbers. I think his struggles between ’08 and ’11 had more to do with a guy who had issues with being dealt around and living up to big contracts that culminated in his nightmarish 2011. Prior to last season, I wrote this up on him — http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/minimal-risk-in-drafting-dunn/. Last season, to me, was more him getting his swing back. I think he’s settled, mentally, now and should resume his power-hitting ways. That’s my two-cents. Take it or leave it.

    Comment by Howard Bender — December 5, 2012 @ 11:24 am

  5. It’s fine that this is your opinion, but you still didn’t address the glaring issue with Dunn.

    This isn’t a case of a bad season followed by a return to his history type of production. He did not return to his previous power hitting ways, he forged a new way of power hitting.

    One that saw him with 3% less FB than normal, and an increase of 7% in his HB/FB ratio.

    If done replicates exactly the number of FBs next year as this year, that’s 140. At a 29% HR/FB ratio it’s 41 HR. At a 21% HR/FB ratio (more in line with his recent numbers) that is 29 HR.

    41 HR and a .220 average is palatable. 29 HR and a .220 average is garbage.

    There is serious risk in Dunn. Now, could he hit 41 HR again? Yes. So if you can get his cheap it’s worth the risk. If you’ve got two or three guys in your league eying him (especially in an auction league) there’s probably not a lot of profit to be had given the risk.

    Comment by kellemonster — December 6, 2012 @ 1:44 pm

  6. I don’t see what struggles you’re referring to between 2008 and 2011. From 2008 to 2010, he was a superior slugger, and very much in line with his career numbers to that date. His walk rate slipped in 2010, but 9 more extra-base hits preserved his value. In 2011, he fell off the map. In 2012, his home run and walk rates rebounded, but his batting average was so poor (in an extraordinary park for hitters) that it was still probably the 2nd-worst offensive season of his career.

    Comment by Jon L. — December 6, 2012 @ 2:30 pm

  7. from 03 to 05 Dunn’s fb rate declined for 3 straight years. In 6 out of the next 7 years he hit at least 38 home runs. I think the statement that 3 straight years of fb ratio decline is always a sign of a power hitter in decline is an overstatement…

    Comment by Train — January 27, 2013 @ 5:00 pm

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