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  1. Big fan of grienke but you never know what having to live up to a contract will do to him mentally. He’s not the most stable guy in that department.
    For a little more more money I can keep weaver or it’s grienke or gallardo as my keeper ace. Anyone think it’s an obvious choice? Thoughts?

    Comment by Larry — December 14, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

  2. I know who I’d take (link)

    Comment by Michael Barr — December 14, 2012 @ 2:22 pm

  3. Big fan of grienke but you never know what having to live up to a contract will do to him mentally. He’s not the most stable guy in that department.

    I think this narrative has been overblown. Before he signed, the talk was that major market teams would be too wary of his condition. Now that he’s signed we have a) one of the largest market teams committing to him, albeit with “Monopoly money” and, more importantly, b) Greinke himself committing to six years in an environment teeming with media and social interaction. I would imagine if he thought it would be a significant issue he would have taken the slight reduction in pay and signed elsewhere. He should have a pretty good sense of what’s in store given his two month sample in Anaheim.

    Comment by Danny Knobgobbler — December 14, 2012 @ 2:35 pm

  4. This is a good article.

    It also comports well with the narrative that Greinke prefers to be a flyball pitcher and was forced to change his game in Milwaukee to avoid the oppressive park factor (you mentioned the uncharacteristic GB%). But once he remembered that he was in Angel stadium and could get away with it again, he brought his four-seamer and changeup back and ditched the cutter.

    Comment by The Foils — December 14, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

  5. Therein lies the problem. Grienke may be #1 on that list but in real life fantasy output weaver has been elite for 3 yrs and grienke has not. I keep waiting for weaver to start being closer to his Sierra and xFIP but he never does. He just keeps pimping it. And grienke seems to have ‘inflated’ real numbers due to his high babip. I’m with you, though. Grienke will get to seeSD and SF but weaver gets seattle and oak.
    It’s head to head points league too, not that it matters.

    Comment by Larry — December 14, 2012 @ 4:18 pm

  6. I’d keep Greinke for one year at most, or maybe trade him in-season for a good bargain. I seriously doubt that being traded to the NL West now is a good thing. The NL West last year was the strongest offensive division in the National League, with mostly young and/or injured clubs. The Dodgers were also the worst scoring team in the NL West by wRC+, Greinke is playing for the weakest offensive club against clubs that will be uniformly stronger. Even more, while he has left a tougher division, the AL West will welcome the bottom dwelling Houston Astros to feed on, and the Rangers have lost Hamilton, making the Angels the strongest team in the division. This increases the chance of wins for any player in the AL West, and would have been especially good for Greinke.

    I’m not sure that Greinke will experience decline immediately. Angels Stadium is a pitcher’s park, and he played away games in Safeco and O.co. He now pitches in Dodgers Stadium and plays away in Petco and AT&T. But I think his long term prospects are grim, especially if the NL West this year was a sign of what’s to come, and not a flash in the pan one year blip.

    Comment by Near — December 14, 2012 @ 6:46 pm

  7. I wouldn’t have guessed the NL west was the best hitting NL division and I wouldn’t have guessed the dodgers were worse than the padres. Yikes. You are definitely making an indirect argument for weaver.

    Comment by Larry — December 15, 2012 @ 12:19 am

  8. I wholeheartedly disagree, although I’m not prepared (because it’s late and my kids need to go to bed and I need a glass of gin) to back it up with anything other than my instinct. I’d always take talent first. Make your mind up on who you think has a better arm and go from there.

    Comment by Michael Barr — December 15, 2012 @ 1:56 am

  9. Hard to say who’s arm I like. Grienke hasn’t beat his Sierra or xFIP since his cy young season with the royals in 09. It’s getting to be a trend that seems to follow higher GB rates for him.

    Weaver has been an elite performer for 3 yrs but has been outperforming his numbers substantially; mostly with just babip. Has he learned how to do this a la Matt Cain or is regression lurking…?

    Comment by Larry — December 15, 2012 @ 8:48 am

  10. To be fair the 2013 dodgers will be about twenty times better offensively than 2012 dodgers.

    Comment by majnun — December 17, 2012 @ 4:29 pm

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