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  1. But what if I can keep him for $4 out of a $260 budget? Would you rather have Medlen at $9?

    Comment by Don Cooper — December 14, 2012 @ 12:48 pm

  2. Thanks Mike. Can i ask where you got the trend data (above ’12 velocity trend graph)?

    Thanks,
    Dan

    Comment by danielschwartz.rotobanter — December 14, 2012 @ 1:04 pm

  3. Not to mention his heavy use of his slider.

    Comment by phil — December 14, 2012 @ 1:56 pm

  4. I’m in a weird spot with thanks to my league’s rules. I have him at $5, and I have to sing him to a keeper contract, which means I have to keep him for a certain number of years at certain prices, but can’t drop him. i.e:
    through 2013:$5/yr
    through 2014:$10/yr
    through 2015:$15/yr
    through 2016:$20/yr

    for reference, based on our league history, I’d guess he’ll go for about $30-$35 at auction (“true aces” like Lee, Felix and Halladay go for $40-$45, while “top 2′s” are $25-30). I’m leaning towards 2yr/$10 right now, but curious what other people think about his long term value and injury risk

    Comment by Ben — December 14, 2012 @ 2:24 pm

  5. I’m in a similar league, though I have him for $7 for another season before having to make a decision. For you, I’d be leaning toward 2/$10, I think it minimizes the risk a bit while still getting him cheap for multiple years. That said, why not see what you can get for him? I’m in the process of shopping him for a bat, I think with the right trading partner you could get a solid return while eliminating (most of) the risk that comes along with Sale.

    Comment by Ray — December 14, 2012 @ 2:53 pm

  6. There was some talk of swapping him and change for Kipnis, but that fell apart pretty quickly due to contract status. (Kipnis has 1 more year before he has to sign, and he didn’t want to take the plunge with Sale, either.) There are very few other cheap players with good track records available, and established players are almost universally way overpaid (Cabrera and Kemp were KEPT at $55 each, and that was probably a good move since Braun and A-Gon went for $64!)

    I own Carlos Santana, Brett Lawrie, and Freddie Freeman, I asked the guys with Trout and Harper what they wanted, and they both just laughed me off. McCutchen, CarGo, and Posey are all one-year rentals for $15, Stanton and Castro are both signed for too much for too long (4/20 each), Heyward is at a reasonable $25, but that’s hardly a steal, E5 is on a great contract, but is a buy-high.

    That basically leaves guys like Goldshmidt($2), Alex Gordon($7), Jose Altuve($7), or Desmond Jennings($5), all good keepers, sure, but Sale projects to be either a top-15 SP, or a disaster, and in a 16-team league I think you have to take some risks and just hope they pay off. None of the guys I could reasonable trade him for are likely to be worth enough, even if they’re less risky.

    Comment by Ben — December 14, 2012 @ 3:30 pm

  7. go to his player page, click on the “Pitchf/x” tab and then the “Velocity Charts” tab

    Comment by johnnycuff — December 14, 2012 @ 5:56 pm

  8. is it possible that Sale intentionally sacrificed velocity for command after those first 3 starts? his velo looks fairly stable if you cover those first 3 starts with your hand.

    regardless, I’m also probably not paying retail for him.

    Comment by jsp2014 — December 14, 2012 @ 9:25 pm

  9. Is there no way to keep both? Absolutely you have to keep Sale, even given the risk. Not sure how Medlen costs $9, but depending on your league format, he should be a strong profit as well.

    Comment by Mike Podhorzer — December 14, 2012 @ 11:10 pm

  10. Without knowing for sure, it’s definitely possible, but even without those starts, there was a slight downward trend. And considering he was throwing 95 in relief, we would have expected him to average at least like 93 as a starter, and he couldn’t even average 92.

    Comment by Mike Podhorzer — December 14, 2012 @ 11:12 pm

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