FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

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  1. This also shows how great Adrian Gonzalez (and Brian Giles) have been offensively in the past…

    Comment by Matt B. — December 1, 2009 @ 9:39 am

  2. It will be interesting to see if Peavy makes some adjustments, that could change the results significantly as well. It would be to his benefit to try to induce more ground balls.

    Comment by slash12 — December 1, 2009 @ 9:55 am

  3. Peavy’s xFIP from 2004-2008:

    2004: 3.56
    2005: 3.13
    2006: 3.82
    2007: 3.46
    2008: 3.92

    His xFIP was higher than his FIP in every single season and may be a better tool to look at going forward, considering the park effects, than FIP.

    Comment by Scottwood — December 1, 2009 @ 10:08 am

  4. xFIP normalizes to league average HR rate. It would make sense that a pitcher (Peavy) pitching half his games in a HR killing park (Petco) would beat his xFIP.

    Comment by JDSussman — December 1, 2009 @ 11:04 am

  5. Do we have something like standard deviations for park factors? Exactly crazy is PETCO?

    Comment by Paul — December 1, 2009 @ 1:15 pm

  6. Well, sure. But, he’s not going to be pitching in that park anymore and that advantage will be gone. Therefore, his previous xFIP’s might be of better use than his previous FIP.

    Comment by Scottwood — December 1, 2009 @ 1:20 pm

  7. do not draft jake peavy.

    Comment by MDS — December 1, 2009 @ 2:02 pm

  8. No draft him late mid to late. He is a valuable pitcher. I would take him around the 18th (or later) round in a 10 team league.

    Comment by PhD Brian — December 1, 2009 @ 7:34 pm

  9. Great analysis David. I used some of those links to do the same kind of adjustment for Adrian Gonzalez. You can click the name link for more information, but if Agon played at Fenway instead of Petco last season, he would have probably posted a line close to a .324 BA/.435 OBP w/ 53.5 HR

    Comment by jeffrey — December 1, 2009 @ 8:26 pm

  10. Take your White Sox hating bullshit somewhere else. Can’t wait to watch Peavy shut everybody up.

    Comment by Matt — December 1, 2009 @ 8:57 pm

  11. Yes, and this year, you’d expect him to perform worse than his xFIP, given half his games are now in the cell. Looking at those numbers, and giving a penalty for NL vs. AL and for pitching in the cell, you’d expect his xFIP in the 4.00 range, and FIP in the 4.15 or so range.

    Comment by lookatthosetwins — December 1, 2009 @ 10:10 pm

  12. You’re funny. I like you.

    Comment by lookatthosetwins — December 1, 2009 @ 10:10 pm

  13. Really? I think he’s kind of a moron. But to each his own.

    Comment by Travis — December 2, 2009 @ 1:20 am

  14. I think he’s at least as good as AJ Burnett. Draft him wherever you would draft Burnett.

    Comment by CH — December 2, 2009 @ 12:29 pm

  15. i’d take burnett first..but is a good comparison overal… white sox have shotty defense and burnett would prolly collect 2-3 more wins…

    Comment by wolverin119 — December 2, 2009 @ 2:22 pm

  16. Peavy looks quite a bit better than Burnett.

    The supreme crappiness of the AL central should probably be considered. You have to feel good about a guy throwing most of his games against KC, Detroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota.

    Comment by Mike — December 2, 2009 @ 10:36 pm

  17. Peavy is a better than Burnett, BB/9.

    Peavy is still much better than the league average pitcher in the AL.

    Comment by Colin — December 3, 2009 @ 2:03 pm

  18. what is a ten team league? thats a foreign language to MDS
    i have no clue what his ADP will be, but he wont last til the 18th

    Comment by MDS — December 4, 2009 @ 10:15 pm

  19. you spelled it wrong. its White Sux

    Comment by MDS — December 4, 2009 @ 10:16 pm

  20. Mike, don’t include Minnesota in that list, or even Detroit. Minnesota’s lineup is 10 times better than anything in the NL west or central (excepting St. Louis).

    And to Matt, oh how love white sox fans. Always so angry. This was an analytical look at a player and still thinks it’s white sox hate. Here’s white sox hate: if your dumb fans weren’t so busy hating a team across town that’s not even in your own league, maybe they could be a decent team. Have fun watching the corpse of Paul Konerko turn doubles into singles.

    Comment by mnjoe — April 1, 2010 @ 10:31 am

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