I won;t comment on the Adam Jones stuff because “he can just play!” is sufficient, but I did find all of the information very interesting. Well done. My only concern with guys like AJ, is that patience paid off for him with a big 09 season, so will be able to remain patient? Easier said than done. Jones and JU10 are fun to watch.
[quote]Tillman will team up with 2008 first-rounder Brian Matusz to give Baltimore a deadly one-two punch at the top of the rotation.[/quote]
Ya lost me. I don’t know how you “quantify/explain” the word ‘deadly’. Deadly like Carpenter & Wainwright or deadly like Zambrano & Lilly or deadly like Correia & Gaudin?
I ask because they appear to be two, young 1.4 to 1.5 WHIP pitchers, and I don’t think they’ll even be as deadly as say Blackburn & Baker (who are pretty good actually).
Where would Tillman and Matusz rank, in regards to 1 & 2 combos, among all 30 MLB teams?
Matusz does appear to have the potential to be really good, even though he found MLB to be MUCH more difficult than AA. He still strikes out a good amount of batters, but is too hittable. Tillman is just as hittable, but K’s fewer batters (rate). Am I missing something? Thanks in advance.
Comment by CircleChange11 — December 11, 2009 @ 11:41 am
I’m not sure I agree with the logic of your analysis. All of the trend data that you cover (increasing groundball rate, unsustainable HR/FB rate, decreasing contact rate, unsustainable slugging rate on flyballs) seems to point to the opposite of your conclusion. Rather than looking at this and concluding that Jones is poised to become a star, it seems to indicate that he is due for some serious regression. Looking at his numbers, he continued to swing at too many pitches out of the zone, but made less contact on those swings. This would seem to indicate fewer of what we would expect to be poorly hit balls likely to turn into outs. His contact rate on swings in the zone remained unchanged however, so it seems reasonable to expect his contact rate on swings outside of the zone to go up next year, resulting in more poorly hit balls turning into outs. His status are disturbingly similar to some other players who hit too many groundballs for the type of player that they are (not a burner), i.e. Delmon Yound, Mark Teahen, etc. I would be surprised to see Jones take a step forward next year and I don’t see anything in his numbers from 2009 to support that expectation.
Comment by BrettFan1 — December 11, 2009 @ 11:42 am
I think that pretty much all his peripherals got a lot better in his second full season. Increased walk rate, lowered strikeout rate, more power. The main problem is that he hit’s too many ground balls. We’ll see if he can fix this, but his LD% remains fairly low and definitely has room to improve. His BABIP wasn’t that stellar either, and a 17% HR/FB is good, but not out of the realm of possibility.
I think if we see him able to get the ball in the air a bit more (LD or FB) then you are looking at a really high level player.
I’m not sure I see him quite profiled like Delmon Young/Teahen, Delmon of which is even more aggressive at the plate and Jones numbers are considerably better across the board, but I understand the comparison in terms of high GB%.
The guy is only 24 next season, where Teahen didn’t begin his career until he was 23. Lefties remain a problem for Jones too, but he’s young and I don’t think he’s hit his ceiling by any means.
Yeah, I don’t really feel that the increase in power is “unsustainable” by any means. We’re talking about a guy who turned 24 toward the end of the season, with a sustained track record of hitting with authority in the minor leagues.
For what it’s worth, here are Jones’ projections from CHONE and ZiPS:
Neither system sees Jones regressing in 2010.
Comment by David Golebiewski — December 11, 2009 @ 12:57 pm
Most analysts when asked to compare Jones to a current player, the consensus was Tori Hunter.
His first 2 seasons at Baltimore have yielded the following…
YEAR AB HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG
2008 477 9 57 23 108 .270 .311 .400
2009 473 19 70 36 93 .277 .335 .457
Assuming a 10% across the board improvement over the next 2 seasons/1000AB’s, I think Adam in his prime would project to be a
.290-.300BAvg….25-30HR……0.900OPS type of player
Comment by JollyRoger — December 11, 2009 @ 12:59 pm
The Mariners traded Kam Mickolio in that deal too. Not like he amounted to something, but it was a 5-for-1 deal, not 4-for-1.
Comment by BrettJMiller — December 11, 2009 @ 1:14 pm
Kam will be on the roster this season working out of the back end of the bullpen, so he has definitely amounted to something.
The part that I was referring to as “unsustainable” is his .895 slugging on flyballs (compared to the .603 AL avg). I don’t think it is reasonable to expect him to continue to outpace the league to such an extent. Which means that he will need to significantly increase his flyball rate for next year just to maintain the power numbers he achieved in 2009. Given his track record of hitting way to many groundballs, he will need to make a major shift in his batted ball profile to achieve this. This is why I compared him to Teahen and Young. Both players hit way to many groundballs, swing at to many pitches outside of the zone and have a history of having random power spikes/dips due to anomalies on flyball rates, HR/FB etc.
Comment by BrettFan1 — December 11, 2009 @ 2:03 pm
Killa Kam pitched 13 innings for the O’s last year and struck out 14, allowed no home runs, and posted a 2.63 ERA.
At 6’9 with a very heavy fastball he could be a very good reliever.
Mariner’s fan here. Please stop writing stuff like this. You are just rubbing alcohol and salt in my wounds. The terrible part is that unless the Ms win the World Series sometime over the course of Jones career, we Ms fans are going to regret the trade every single day for the rest of our lives.
And let’s face it, the odds of the Mariners winning a World Series at any point over the next 40 years or so of my life is somewhere between slim and absolute zero. And Slim just left the building.
Hm, I could’ve sworn he struggled in his call up. My bad.
Comment by BrettJMiller — December 11, 2009 @ 3:04 pm
Mariners fans can take heart in this:
2009 wOBA WAR
Jones .343 2.1
FGuti .337 5.9
Of course the biggest difference in value was a fielding season for the ages by Gutierrez, one that will be hard for him (or anyone) to repeat, but still: while the team gave up way too much for Bedard and Jones is still on the ascendant, SafeCo’s spacious central field was more than adequately filled by his replacement. Who himself seems to still be developing some power at the plate.
Whatever terrible damage Bavasi has done, Zduriencik can undo, eventually.
(However, as a fellow seasonal-affective-disordered Mariners fan, I share your doubts about a WS — in fact, I’m convinced that by the time I shuffle off this mortal coil sometime after the middle of this century, the M’s not only will still be without a WS win, they will be the only team to have never played in a World Series. By 2050 every other team in baseball — including the Nationals, the Rangers, and the expansion teams in Portland and Mexico — will have had at least one chance to play on the biggest stage for the ultimate prize. But not the M’s. Fortunately by then it will be time to replace Safeco, so they can move it off that Indian burial ground… perhaps to a bubble beneath Elliot Bay).