Comment by David Golebiewski — January 2, 2010 @ 12:10 pm
I’m not sure I agree with the snippet that Citi Field took away 7 XBH, 1 error and 1 out. Unless you meant 1 XBH, 1 E, and 7 outs. he only had 17 2B/3B’s at home so if you took 7 of them away he would have only had 10 non-HR XBH’s.
It also doesn’t explain why he wasn’t hitting HR’s on the road. But at least he had XBH’s on the road.
I’m not sure what the issue is. Five doubles, two triples, one single, one out= 17 total bases.
9 HR= 36 total bases.
Wright had 239 total bases in 535 AB, for a .447 SLG%. If he had 9 HR(36 bases) instead of those 17 total bases, he would have had 19 more total bases (36 minus 17). 239+19= 258 total bases. 258 total bases in 535 AB comes to a .482 slugging percentage.
Comment by David Golebiewski — January 3, 2010 @ 10:21 am
The issue is that he would still only have 22 XBH which is way below his avg and does nothing to dispel the notion that he had a ‘wacky’ year. Or that he only hit 5Hr’s on the road.
Unrelated to this I’m hesitant to just magically say that a flyball would have been a HR in Shea. But I couldn’t find the article you referred to.
Oh yeah, I understand where you’re coming from. His power was down in 2009, regardless. But I think there’s a pretty good chance that he bounces back toward those career norms. We have one oddball season mixed in with four very similar, high-power seasons. I don’t think that he suddenly lost the ability to drive the ball.
Comment by David Golebiewski — January 3, 2010 @ 10:51 am
This is complete garbage, you sir are a sorry excuse for a blogger. Ive blogged better stuff on the toilet, and besides the mets are terrible and so are you. A real team is the oakland athletics because they totally rule, just like me and O’Doyle from Billy Madison.
The “experts” over at ESPN and another site still think Wright should be a 1st rounder in mixed leagues and I don’t see it. Going from 33 HRs and 124 RBIs to 10-72 is a huge dropoff. I say he’s a 3rd rounder at the earliest.
I don’t like getting into how much ballpark factors play into a guys stats. Too many varibles. How many bloop doubles down the lines did Wright get because OF’s were playing 2 steps into the alleys? How many HR’s does D. Lee lose or gain because the wind is blowing in or out at Wrigley?
I agree, these are very good questions, Dr. Logic. However, we don’t currently have any way of measuring them until we see widespread adoption of GameFX. We DO, however, have a pretty darn good method to adjust a player’s line based on general ballpark trends (which have all that hidden, currently-unmeasurable stuff as inputs). So while we can’t adjust for things perfectly, we do know a few things about each ballpark. Or are you uncomfortable saying that Adrian Gonzalez would have significantly better numbers if he didn’t play half his games in Petco?
Look, it’s not perfect. But statistical analyses aren’t perfect, unless you’re Mendel and cheat on your data. So we do the best we can, then at the end of the year you honestly assess your processes.
It’s a hell of a lot better than saying what you seem to be: because we cannot measure everything perfectly, we shouldn’t bother with analyses.
All of these points would be valid if David Wright was a robot or a walking Strat-O-Matic card. Unfortunately he’s a living breathing thinking human being, who changed his ENTIRE approach at the plate because of the ridiculously enormous dimensions of his new home park. Subsequently he became a shadow of his former self, and is now a singles-hitting strikeout machine. For designing and building a ballpark that wrecked the psyche of their best homegrown every-day player EVER, the Wilpons deserve the “A-Holes Of The Millenium” award.
Comment by Paulie Cee — January 30, 2010 @ 1:55 pm
Would I be insane to draft David Wright with the 5th overall pick? It’s a 10-team
mixed h2h points league. Longoria (3rd round), Zimmerman (6), Reynolds (18), Youkilis
(10), Sandoval (18), and Figgins (17) are all likely to be kept. ARod won’t fall
to me and I don’t know if I can count on Wright being there with my 2nd pick, meaning
the pickings are going to be pretty slim at 3B. Wright was the top scoring hitter
in my league 2 years ago. Would I be foolish to pass on the likes of Braun, Fielder,
and Utley to take Wright?
Comment by bigtimedeal — February 18, 2010 @ 8:35 pm
Yes, you would be certifiably insane to take Wright with the 5th pick. That said, I think we should look at the fact he got hit in the head with a fastball. Couple that fact with the fact his K% went up, particularly on fastballs and perhaps you have another important variable in his “wacky” season. Odds are that his hysteria will wash away with enough ABs and those fastballs will again turn into bombs. Adding Reyes (hopefully) and Beltran back to the lineup will not only increase RBIs but also instill confidence and swagger. Then, add Bay hitting cleanup to protect him and you suddenly have the Wright we have all come to know and love (fantasy-wise). Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay is a sick foursome that is going to do A LOT of damage to the NL East. Do not let last year’s head hunting and last man standing effects hinder your drafting of this elite of elite.
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