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  1. I like the article, but have to disagree with your “enjoy it while it lasts” take on Fister. What, exactly, is lasting? His luck?

    Comment by Chris J — April 22, 2010 @ 11:05 am

  2. Precisely. A BABIP that low with his strikeout rate (4.26 K/9) is going to be tough to sustain. At some point, it’ll correct itself.

    Comment by Mike Axisa — April 22, 2010 @ 11:08 am

  3. Mike, you wouldn’t say that since I flipped a coin and it landed heads 5 times in a row to bet on heads for the next flip or two to “enjoy it while it lasts.”

    I’d always rather wager on luck neutral probabilities than trying to “ride it.”

    Comment by Chris J — April 22, 2010 @ 11:18 am

  4. Yeah, I was going to say that as well. That logic doesn’t really make sense.

    Comment by R M — April 22, 2010 @ 2:04 pm

  5. Yeah but unlike coin-flipping we don’t know with 100% certainty that this is all luck with Fister. Mike’s numbers suggest that it isn’t a wise move to be on him in a long-term sense. But maybe in the short-term he is doing something well that isn’t reflected in these numbers. Maybe he can sustain this a little longer with the team’s current defensive alignment. Maybe there are ballpark effects that will still be around to help him for a little while. I haven’t done any research here so don’t really know if any of that is possible or just garbage speculation, but I do know that Fister’s good performance is not 100% luck.

    Comment by Yuzzah — April 22, 2010 @ 2:17 pm

  6. You guys are trolling. Fister is not only getting the benefit of luck courtesy of the low BABIP, his stuff is just as likely to be sharper. His control may be spot on or whatever. The point is, given his track record, it is not likely to last.

    Comment by Ed — April 22, 2010 @ 2:23 pm

  7. I certainly don’t consider facing Lincecum, the Braves, and Phillies as favorable matchups coming up…

    Comment by Jason — April 22, 2010 @ 6:40 pm

  8. Tough audience today.

    Its more that he’s facing a mediocre Giants lineup. So his odds of a win go down with Lincecum on the mound, but that doesn’t affect his peripherals. Wins are as fickle as saves. Braves are aight… Phillies not so much.

    Comment by shibboleth — April 22, 2010 @ 9:38 pm

  9. keppinger is interesting, he kills lefties. Is he worth a roster spot as a player who you only put in against lefties?

    Comment by SF 55 for life — April 22, 2010 @ 10:29 pm

  10. Wins might be fickle, but there are certainly ways to try and predict them, like avoiding starting your non-aces vs. guys like Lincecum, because there’s a good chance you are wasting the innings and just hoping for a solid ERA/WHIP/K. People take the whole – wins don’t matter thing – too far when it comes to fantasy, because they DO matter, they are 25% of a pitcher’s value and there ARE ways to maximize your chances to get them in the exact same way that there are ways to maximize how many Ks you end up with. When a guy can pitch deep into games in front of a top5 offense he’s likely to win quite a few games, and when you are facing a perennial CY candidate like Timmy you aren’t. Opposing starters earned 7 wins vs. Lincecum in 2009 – Ubaldo/Wolf/Jurrjens/Zambrano/CYoung are guys you’d never think of benching vs. SFG, and Pedro had flashed good stuff in August while he was building up arm strength for the Phillies, so that was an obvious start as well. That leaves Doug Davis as the only time I would have been mildy surprised by a W vs. Lincecum last year, and disappointment in most other scenarios, barring a fantastic peripherals game.

    I understand that Garcia probably carries a TON of value in deeper leagues, but I just had to respond to this notion that wins are unpredictable. If you’re in a 10 or 12 team mixed league with a 1250 innings limit, you don’t want to be using Garcia over these next 3 starts, regardless of how they turn out. Stashing him on your bench makes sense, but I’d like to see quite a bit more from him before being willing to run him out there in a shallow league vs. good MLB teams.

    Comment by Jason — April 22, 2010 @ 11:55 pm

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