FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. I agree with the Villanueva notion. He is by far the best candidiate based on his numbers this year and Hawkins is just a ticking time bomb. Hoffman should be on the DL within the week clearing up some room for Carlos (hopefully) to start closing some games.

    I have read some on Hoffman’s pitch selection and he is staying away from his changeup. But no evidence to suggest why. Im sure the brewers wish this could be solved with rest and a lil bayer. Not likely.

    Comment by Highestlander — April 28, 2010 @ 5:09 pm

  2. What about a Zach Braddock call up come June? He’s tearing up AAA right now. I know usually managers like to go with proven guys, but this kid has been lights out.

    Comment by WMHGANG — April 28, 2010 @ 5:25 pm

  3. Man, I hate seeing career save opps record for guys who have mostly worked setup in their careers. A non-closer role only gives them the opportunity to blow saves, not to earn them. While it’s certainly important to know that a guy has blown late leads, it seems off to compare those to opportunities where a RP was likely going to get a chance for the save. Just bothers me because people in the media often quote those numbers without that caveat.

    Comment by Greg — April 28, 2010 @ 6:18 pm

  4. I completely agree with you. However, when thinking about relevant stats, saves seemed like they belonged. Then, like stolen bases, I didn’t want to just show the positive without the negative. I’ll work on a good way to represent that part of the stats.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — April 28, 2010 @ 6:23 pm

  5. Crazy closer volatility. Sort of unrelated but I’d like to get some advice. Do you prefer Qualls or Lindstrom as a closer for the rest of the year: Lindstrom, who appears to have better stuff (velocity wise and PitchFX makes it seem like he’s using much more diversity in his pitches) or Qualls (who appears to have better job security without a $5mil contract waiting in the wings [aka Lyon])?

    Thanks.

    Comment by Sal — April 28, 2010 @ 6:31 pm

  6. Cool thanks. I’ve always wished there was a better way to judge setup men in the sense that saves vs. blown saves judges closers. Holds are so flimsy and there is no “blown hold”.

    Comment by Greg — April 28, 2010 @ 6:38 pm

  7. Wait I think you jarred something loose. How about Saves + Holds / Saves + Holds + Blown Saves ?

    That would tell you how many times the player held a lead of less than three runs in late innings. If you blow a hold, you get a BS!

    Not bad right? Will change it up now.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — April 28, 2010 @ 6:40 pm

  8. Yeah the formula you put in works for me. Definitely eliminates the curse of the setup man.

    Comment by Greg — April 28, 2010 @ 6:53 pm

  9. I drafted Hoffman, Dotel, Mike Gonazelz, and Qualls.

    Just about all of them have WHIPS over 2 and ERAS over 9. My team ERA and WHIP is never going to recover from this.

    Comment by Bad Luck Billy — April 28, 2010 @ 7:16 pm

  10. I drafted Frank Francisco and Huston Street as my closers. Also managed tp pick up Cliff Lee, Ian Kinsler and Brian Roberts (all before they went on the DL).

    Comment by R M — April 28, 2010 @ 8:21 pm

  11. I made the mistake of picking up Guerrier instead of Rauch when Nathan went down, going by the numbers. So, of course, I’m going to do the same thing here- I picked up Villanueva.

    Comment by JayCee — April 28, 2010 @ 8:34 pm

  12. I also have Peavy and he also has an ERA over 9 and a WHIP over 2. My goodness, maybe it isn’t bad luck. Maybe I just stink at this stuff.

    I also passed over Rauch and Capps for some of those other guys I mentioned. I am really regretting that.

    Wow 5 guys on the DL? That’s crazy.

    Comment by Bad Luck Billy — April 28, 2010 @ 8:37 pm

  13. It seems like with all of those pitches Villanueva throws he could stick as a starter. That said, his career HR rate is concerning for a closer.

    Comment by coreyjro — April 28, 2010 @ 8:59 pm

  14. I see Hawkins carrying Ryan Madson-type value the rest of the season. He’s an okay pitcher with an undefined role which is largely dependent on the ability of another veteran to regain his closer form.

    Comment by OzzieGuillen — April 28, 2010 @ 9:16 pm

  15. Eno, that BS article is one I want to read.

    Comment by Guancous — April 28, 2010 @ 11:40 pm

  16. As WMHGANG said above, one of the Brewers’ top prospects is Zach Braddock, a lefty with a great fastball who is the set-up man at AAA currently and figures to earn a promotion to the big league team sometime this season.

    It’s more a question of when then if, and he certainly won’t become the Brewers’ closer right away, but he seems destined to at some point(if not this season, then by next season definitely).

    In the meantime, all 3 of the other candidates mentioned in this article have been taken in one of my leagues where I need saves, so I might add Braddock in the next month or so since nobody else knows about him. ;)

    Comment by Jim — April 29, 2010 @ 2:04 am

  17. Maybe Dave Allen should take a look at what’s happening this year compared to what he showed us last year.

    I have read that he’s pitching behind in counts more than usual and therefore relying on the fastball more.

    Comment by D-Rock — April 29, 2010 @ 2:15 am

  18. They said the same things about Percival last year, “velocity still fine, no changeup” etc. Turns out his velo was “fine” only because his arm was falling off and he was putting everything he had into each pitch. Percival didn’t finish the season.

    Comment by JayCee — April 29, 2010 @ 7:02 am

  19. I drafted Hoffman, Francisco, Mike Gonzalez and Jason Frasor. I know “it’s only April” and as bad as these guys have been, they haven’t logged enough innings to truly impact my final ERA/WHIP, but now I have no idea where to get the 90 saves I thought they would give me. What sucks is that I drafted these pitchers over guys like Capps, Lindstrom and Rauch because I thought they were better. Shows what I know.

    I would consider punting saves, but my offense isn’t good enough to support that strategy, especially since 2010 Grady Sizemore is furiously destroying my AVG. He killed me in 2009 but now he is playing at a whole new level of badness.

    I know fantasy baseball is only a game and injuries/luck amount to 50% of the season, but I spent an absurd amount of time preparing for my draft and my team is terrible…every night is like a kick in the stomach. I need a new hobby…….

    Comment by Neil — April 29, 2010 @ 9:48 am

  20. I took Soriano, Francisco, and Lindstrom as I was at the turn of a 12 team draft and missed on a closer run that saw most of the “cheap saves” guys go before it got to me. Was looking ugly in that department for a bit but Francisco looks to be gaining ground on Feliz and the other two have done well now that they’ve gotten opportunities. Don’t think anyone in the Milwaukee bunch is available so I’ll have to see if I can grab the wrong guy in Pitt for when Dotel finishes imploding.

    Comment by Chad — April 29, 2010 @ 10:19 am

  21. If you’re using career numbers, isn’t FIP better than xFIP?

    Using league average HR rates makes sense for small sample sizes/single seasons, but pitchers do have some control over it, so as the sample gets bigger doesn’t FIP becomes better?

    Comment by Ray — April 30, 2010 @ 3:35 am

  22. Depends on what park the players played in. If one pitched in San Diego and another in Texas you would probably still want to normalize the HR rates. But in general FIP is marginally better with huge samples and xFIP is way better with small samples.

    Comment by Ender — May 1, 2010 @ 8:11 am

  23. It really seems to be a location problem with him. He just cannot command his change up at all so far this year. In his last outing he bounced 4 of them in front of the plate showing a complete lack of control.

    Comment by Ender — May 1, 2010 @ 8:12 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Current ye@r *

Close this window.

0.145 Powered by WordPress