ADP: Bottom Feeder Gems

Mock Draft Central’s ADP (Average Draft Position) is created by getting the ADP from the last 14 days worth of drafts. Here is a look at some players that are getting drafted too low, in my opinion, from Mock Draft Central’s most recent rankings.

Johnny Giavotella (Rank: 406, ADP 317, Drafted 4.5%)

Johnny looks to be in the running for a prime batting order position, second, in the Royals above average lineup. Last season Melky Cabrera had a top 40 fantasy year from this spot. Johnny will get a long look to see if he is the answer at 2B for the Royals or do the Royals need to find someone else to fill that position. Look for him to be a nice sleeper.

Anthony Rizzo (Rank:360, ADP 256, Drafted 2.9%)

He is the future 1B for the Cubs. While he is not at all close to being in the top echelon of 1B in the league, he will make a nice bench player or fill in for the Util spot. There is no reason for him to be drafted in less than 3% of the leagues.

Jose Altuve (Rank: 356, ADP 254 Drafted 7.0%)

While Jose is not a top 2B in the league, he will be getting plenty of playing time and hitting towards the top of the Astros lineup. While this is not an ideal position, it is a starting job for a decent player. He currently projects to have near a 0.290 AVG, nearly 10 HRs and 20 SBs. If he isn’t going to be an everyday player on a fantasy team, he will be a great Plug-n-Play guy.

Brent Morel (Rank 352, ADP 250, Drafted 19.2%)

3B is one of the more shallow positions in fantasy baseball. Morel has some value in that he is a starting 3B and has the potential to put up double digit HRs. If an owner misses out on one of the big 3B in the first part of the draft and is bottom feeding, Morel is definitely a player to take a chance on.

Zack Cozart (Rank: 349, ADP 246 Drafted 71.9%)

Zack had a nice season going in 2011 until he ended up on the DL. Drew Stubbs and him will be battling for a spot at the top of the Reds lineup. Even if he doesn’t get the spot, a SS that can hit 0.300 will be valuable in any league.

The first 3 players I examined rarely got drafted (each <10% of the time), but Zack is getting drafted in over 2/3rds of the leagues. It seems some owners know of his possible value and are snatching him up late. The earliest someone has drafted him is with the 177th pick. In a 12 team league, the pick works out to be in the 14th round. If an owner has their eyes on him and are gambling on him falling, don’t gamble much past the 13th round.

Salvador Perez (Rank 343, ADP 243, 79.6%)

Sal is grouped in the draft ranking with other catchers like John Buck and A.J. Pierzynski. He is a young, 22 years old, developing catcher that has a great chance to breakout. Perez, like Cozart, is on people’s draft sheets. They are just waiting until late in the draft to pick him up. To draft him, you may have to draft him earlier than the last couple of rounds.

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Jeff writes for FanGraphs, The Hardball Times and Royals Review, as well as his own website, Baseball Heat Maps with his brother Darrell. In tandem with Bill Petti, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

13 Responses to “ADP: Bottom Feeder Gems”

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  1. Adrock says:

    This is a useful feature for those of us in deep leagues. More of the same, please!

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    • glenstein says:

      completely agree. I sometimes think people don’t even realize deep leagues exist. So you get lots of comments like “why would you even CONSIDER Salvador Perez?!?” as if you were thinking of taking him in the 3rd rd of a 10 team mixed league or something.

      So I really enjoy articles like these.

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  2. Socrates says:

    I am confused. If the guy (take Perez for instance) is ranked 343rd, wouldn’t he be OVERVALUED if taken 243rd overall? Doesn’t this mean that there are 100 players that have a higher value that he is being drafted in front of?

    I might be misunderstanding something here. Help me out.

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    • Dan says:

      I think the rank may mean the default rank on Mock Draft Central.

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    • jimbo says:

      I think the assumption is that a lot of these sleepers will get a bit of a boost when ‘real drafts’ start.

      Even though MDC has certain standards for “qualifying drafts” (meaning too many auto-draft picks will exclude the whole mock from adp) they still have pre-season ranks that can influence the results. If someone like Perez is auto-ranked extremely low, owners need to search to find him (on purpose).

      As more drafts take place and more owners start looking for sleepers, a lot of these names will move up in ADP. I think the post is counting on a certain amount of inflation.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      The Rank is the abased on how they rank in ADP. There is quite a few players being drafted near the 240-260 ADP range. In that ADP range, there are 30 players. There are other places players are clumped together.

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  3. OaktownSteve says:

    Re: Rizzo. Bryan LaHair is going to tear it up this year. He’s the real sleeper. Just a hunch of course. But I think the Rizzo think helps in that LaHair will be a starting 1st baseman that will be undrafted in medium to deep mixed leagues because folks will assume he’s just keeping the seat warm for Rizzo. Some folks in the know seem to think LaHair is the real deal though.

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    • jimbo says:

      I like late picks who have a built-in Plan B. Just like closers who have studly backups are more attractive in case of injury.

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  4. Jeremy says:

    Where does Nolan Reimold fit on the ADP list? He seems to be another guy that could fly under people’s radars.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I was just working my way up the list from the bottom and he was near few spots ahead of Perez:

      Nolan Reimold, ADP:240.92 Rank: 331, Drafted: 5.1%

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  5. Super Shredder says:

    I can tell you that a lot of these guys are knocked down several notches on my list because of their poor walk rates (Johnny, Altuve, Cozart, Sal).

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  6. tecjug says:

    Jeff, I like Cozart as a sleeper too, but I’m confused by your statement, “Even if he doesn’t get the spot, a SS that can hit 0.300 will be valuable in any league.”

    Are you saying that you think Cozart will be a .300 hitter? His minor league numbers don’t seem to suggest that will hold true, so I’m curious as to what you base your assumption on. If you know something I don’t, it’d be nice to know that I currently have a hidden gem on my dynasty league MiLB roster.

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