ADP Crowdsourcing: Adrian Beltre

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go topical. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are still using pick number today instead of round due to the expected results.

Adrian Beltre, who had a lot of hype surrounding him last offseason thanks to his move to Fenway, has finally found a suitor in the Texas Rangers. Beltre looked very good while wearing the Red Sox uniform last year, and he posted a slugging percentage over .500 for the first time since his breakout season with the Dodgers in 2004. Beltre also went to work lowering his strikeout rate by making contact with balls outside the zone at a much higher rate. For the first time since 2003, Beltre had an overall contact rate above league average.

Moving from Fenway to Arlington may seem like a bad thing for Beltre’s fantasy value, but according to Statcorner’s park factors, Texas is a better place for righties to hit dingers compared to Boston. Moving to the Rangers will also affect Beltre’s run and RBI opportunities, but Texas still has a pretty good offense on their hands, even if they stick with Michael Young as their DH. Beltre will be in the lineup every day, and should hit in the middle of the order thanks to the absence of Vladimir Guerrero.

Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Beltre will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using pick number, not round this time because of Beltre’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.



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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.


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Will Hatheway
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Will Hatheway

I think MDC has it right … mid-5th, so say 54. Personally, I wouldn’t think of taking him for that price, considering the flukiness of the 31-year vet’s last season, especially when you can get McGehee after 100 more expensive guys and get similar production. Then, you can grab Uggla instead of Beltre for a similar price and have a very nice — and not to pricey — foundation for your infield.

The only other time Beltre had this sort of year he was 25 and in his sixth full season. Next year he will be 32, and I would never bet that he’ll so outperform his career babip again, nor an anomalous K-rate and highly irregular power production. Just not that expensive a player, IMHO.

I wouldn’t pay as much for him as, say, Jay Bruce (outfield gets real thin real fast, despite what some may think), or the perenially “lucky” Matt Cain, so according to MDC I’d say I’d take him around 85.

nolan
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nolan

What you fail to mention is that Beltre played half his games at Safeco Park after his age 25 season. His Home/Away wOBA splits for his five years at Safeco with his 2010 season afterward:

2005: .302/.313
2006: .332/.343
2007: .333/.359
2008: .303/.358
2009: .292/.317 (The Torn Testicle Season)
2010: .375/.403

His K-rate has steadily decreased over the past five years, even taking into account his injured 2009 season. I think that Bill James’ line of .283/24/77/88/5 is a very reasonable estimate of what Beltre will do next year. That adds up to a .352 wOBA which is right in line with how he hit on the road from 2006-2008. And I think there is a good chance he outperforms those numbers.

I see McGehee’s ceiling as Beltre’s floor with significantly more risk – but that’s why he’ll be available much later in the draft.

Just saying, don’t sleep on Beltre – though I would definitely stay away from him in OBP leagues.

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