After the success Dave had with the Contract Crowdsourcing series on the other side of the FanGraphs pond, we’re going to give it a shot over here at RotoGraphs. Of course, ours won’t deal with contracts, but rather with a players’ average draft position (ADP). Below I will present you with a brief profile of the player in question, and you’ll cast a vote for where he’ll be drafted in 2011. If you, the influential reader, like this idea, then we’ll keep it going throughout the offseason.
In his first full season as a starter in the big leagues, Morrow was impressive, striking out almost 11 batters every nine innings. While his control wasn’t always pretty, Morrow ended up with a K/BB of 2.70, and an outstanding FIP of 3.16. While his ERA was substantially higher than his FIP or xFIP, a .348 BABIP gives hope for some nice regression next year.
Morrow is still only 26-years old, and the Blue Jays did a nice job of limiting his innings this year in an effort to avoid possible injuries. If the Blue Jays increase his innings limit by 25%, we’re looking at 180 innings from Morrow next year, which should result in 200 strikeouts.
Coming into the 2010 season, Morrow wasn’t even drafted in a majority of leagues due to all of the uncertainty surrounding him. That won’t be the case this year, but it’s hard to tell how high owners may reach for him.
Now, for the fun part. Below is the (link to the) form to enter what round you think Morrow will be drafted in. Notice the wording, as this is not “Where would you draft Morrow,” or “How high would you reach for Morrow.” And, so help me God, if this isn’t a normal distribution, I’m going to throw a fit. For the voting, please assume this is a 12-team, regular old 5×5 standard league.
To submit your answer, click here.
UPDATE: It looks like you fine folks like this idea, and we’ve gotten more than enough votes to keep this going. Another player will be up for voting later this week, and in an attempt to keep this streamlined, I’ll look at Morrow and the next players’ results all at once on Friday. Thanks for the support.
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