ADP Crowdsourcing: Pablo Sandoval

Next up in our ADP Crowdsourcing series is Pablo Sandoval, with props going out to reader Dale for the suggestion.

If I were to write a book about Pablo Sandoval right now, one of the working titles would be “A Tale of Two Seasons: How a Pudgy Third Baseman Frustrated Owners Everywhere.” After jacking 25 dingers with a .330 batting average in 2009, Kung Fu Panda managed to hit only .268 with a measly 13 homers in almost the exact same number of trips to the plate.

Looking outside of our little fantasy box, we can see Sandoval’s performance from a wOBA, and thus a WAR perspective. In 2009, Sandoval was rated at 35 runs above average. His total dipped below -3 runs in 2010. Terrific in ‘09, but somewhat terrible in ‘10. What gives?

It’s hard to truly determine his drop in power production, but we can take a little closer look at some problems that could have plagued his batting average. Was it his strikeout rate and problems making contact? Nope. How about a problem hitting line drives? A little, but not so much. Turns out, Sandoval’s problems stem from a BABIP that sat at .291 at season’s end. While Pablo went after balls out of the zone more often, I don’t think that would be the main reason for a near 60 point dip in BABIP.

This is where you come in, America. Will Sandoval’s BABIP be closer to his 2009 or 2010 numbers, or somewhere in between? Will owners expect higher production in 2011, and will they be willing to pay for it?

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

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The A Team

I don’t know about you guys, but every draft I’ve been over the last two years, Corey Hart has gone Waaaaaaaaay after his ADP. I think Pablo will be this year’s Corey Hart with an ADP much earlier than when most baseball conscious leagues will even look at him. Presumably, someone somewhere is going to see him as a bounce back candidate and take him in the mid rounds, thus leading to the ADP, but most advanced leagues should see him passed on again and again.

Me personally, I’d consider a late round flier or as much as $4 in an auction (I wrote $5 but that felt like a lie). None of the leagues I have lined up next year are particularly deep, so Sandoval will just be under my avoid list.