ADP Trenders

As flawed as ADP analysis may be, you have to admit it’s a boatload of fun to dissect, right?! And heck, when games aren’t yet being played, what else are we going to write about? So today I am looking at the players whose ADP has changed the most over the last two weeks during drafts conducted at Mock Draft Central. I only looked at the top 276 players, since that’s how many players are selected in standard 12-team leagues.

A.J. Burnett
2 Weeks Ago ADP: 273
Current ADP: 225
Change: 48

It is not surprising that Burnett’s cost has skyrocketed after being traded to the National League and the Pirates. Not only does he get out of the AL East and a bandbox home park, but he moves into a neutral overall park that actually suppresses homers, as well as into the DH-less NL. I am fairly confident he will earn a profit in nearly every league he is drafted in this year and believe he’ll even generate some mixed league value. His underlying peripherals were solid as usual, but he was killed by the long ball. It is likely that was just a one year fluke, so even without the move you had to expect better. At the very least he’ll be a cheap source of strikeouts.

Raul Ibanez
2 Weeks Ago ADP: 269
Current ADP: 221
Change: 48

What a shocker, another player moving around that is involved with the Yankees. Though he signed to be the team’s DH, it is highly doubtful he actually accumulates a full-season’s worth of at-bats. He is 40 years old, posted just a .254 wOBA versus lefties, and walked at the lowest clip of his career. Surely now that he has a team, his ADP deserved to improve, but he’s no more than AL-Only fodder.

Bryan LaHair
2 Weeks Ago ADP: 255
Current ADP: 228
Change: 28 (rounding)

Hmmm, is this the sleeper who gets hyped by every magazine and website that he no longer qualifies as one? He’s still going late enough that the scenario is unlikely to unfold, but he’ll probably see his price continue to rise if he hits well in spring training to solidify the first base job. As exciting as the power potential is, he makes terrible contact, and you simply cannot forget that he’s already 29. His Major League Equivalents translated his 38 homers last year into just 23. So you see the effect of the league/park he played in, as well as his age. He’s cheap enough not to be a bust, but he’s not a Mark Trumbo or Jack Cust (when he finally got his chance at age 28 in 2007).

Mike Leake
2 Weeks Ago ADP: 243
Current ADP: 228
Change: 15

Not sure exactly what is causing Leake to rise. With the signing of Jeff Francis, is he even 100% guaranteed a rotation spot? Of course, for a team who should be in contention, choosing Francis over Leake would be ludicrous, but you never know. Leake has a decent base of skills, but it’s improbably he maintains such a sterling walk rate again, while I don’t see much upside for his strikeout rate. He’s mostly a blah pitcher who will have some value in NL-Only leagues, but is borderline in mixed.

Leo Nunez (Juan Carrrrrrrrrlos Oviedo) was fifth, but I am skipping him since he’s just a middle reliever, if he even pitches this year.

Ryan Howard
2 Weeks Ago ADP: 145
Current ADP: 153
Change: 8

The first ADP decliner on this list, and maybe drafters are losing their optimism on Howard’s expected return date. I agree with them. We are talking about a large man who is 32 coming off a serious injury. I’m no doctor and have never played one anywhere, but I feel like a torn Achilles could affect him all season, causing him to miss some games here and there from flaring up. Who knows, I could be completely wrong. He’s unlikely to be the type who comes back early, so we’re probably looking at a mid-May return at the earliest. If you add in the stats of your replacement though, he may not actually be such a bad buy at this spot.




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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.


2 Responses to “ADP Trenders”

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  1. chri521 says:

    Nitpick here but for Howard wouldn’t the change be – 8 unless you are showing absolute change. I figure red and a minus sign differentiates losers from gainers.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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