ADP Value Recap

Ironically for a person that loves fantasy baseball, my record-keeping is not always fantastic. I thought it might be useful to gather all my ADP Values in one post as a sort of (incomplete) sleeper list, while also adding (zingy) recaps of the reasons behind their values, as well as the newest ADPs that are available around the interwebbings. This will also help remind me what positions I have left to cover in the series (everyone wins!).

*Player (MockDraftCentral ADP, Yahoo ADP)

Catcher

Brian McCann (43.85, 39.6)
(Cheapest top-tier catcher with power.)
Miguel Montero (145.07, 175.7)
(Montero could easily repeat his strong 2009 and join the top rungs.)
Chris Iannetta (175.47, 194.2)
(Iannetta could use a little BABIP love, but the power is legit enough.)
A.J. Pierzynski (250.92, 201.4)
(He can be average, for a below-average price.)
Adam Moore (NA, NA)
(Moore might start in Seattle and has upside, but no experience.)
J.R. Towles (NA, NA)
(Can Towles finally post a league-average BABIP and be a decent backstop this year?)

First Base
Chris Davis (161.42, 229.6)
(Haven’t done the ADP Value piece for this position, so these are the deep leaguers, and Davis is the whiff/bomb king.)
Jorge Cantu (172.12, 153.7)
(He can, too, but this price is slowly getting a little too rich.)
Lyle Overbay (407.40, NA)
(The ‘other’ James Loney, at least Over-baby is cheap.)

Second Base
Ben Zobrist (57.82, 42.6)
(Originally in the shortstop piece, Zobrist is a better sleeper at short, but only eligible at 2B in many leagues.)
Dan Uggla (85.98, 75.8)
(If you’re going to pay for a second baseman, why not take one with a near-guaranteed .200+ ISO?)
Rickie Weeks (199.48 (up from 212.37), 108.4)
(This looks like some rankings bias right here – I would avoid Weeks at the Yahoo price.)
Martin Prado (259.51, 195.6)
(Prado is a good deep league value, but he’s still borderline in mixed leagues.)
Placido Polanco (256.43, 192.6)
(Submitted by reader Will, and approved, in a comeback from being overrated in fantasy.)
Kelly Johnson (321.58, NA)
(If you really, really don’t want to pay for your second baseman, has a chance to be decent once again.)
Alberto Callaspo (333.13, 224.7) / Chris Getz (NA, NA)
(Somewhere in here is a decent starting second baseman in deep leagues, but you may have to handcuff.)

Shortstop
Elvis Andrus (152.63, 115.40)
(That Texas lineup will be scooting around the basepaths this year, and Andrus should benefit. As his ADP creeps up, though, the value shifts to the other speedy shortstops.)
Ryan Theriot (276.70, 197.5)
(Theriot manages to be okay in batting average leagues and could be a deep league value.)
Everth Cabrera (244.91, 266.1)
(Which low-powered speedy shortstop will you take? This one is the bet for the worst batting average.)
Alcides Escobar (267.54, 207.1)
(Deep-league value approved, the other other Esco will offer some speed at least.)
Mike Aviles (334.65, NA)
(AL-only endgame shot in the dark only has the worst position player in baseball to beat out.)

Third Base
Ryan Zimmerman (34.20 (up from 39.78), 37.7)
(Surprisingly weak third base class plus emerging young player equals value.)
Gordon Beckham (92.54, 138.20)
(Yahoo seems to provide better value, and even 600 at-bats of last year’s version would outproduce this pick.)
Adrian Beltre (192.50, 168.1)
(New park and good health could make for a nice bounce-back season.)
Alex Gordon (241.64, 217.6)
(Was making progress before his injury-derailed 2009 season.)
David Freese (332.31, NA)
(Still all alone on the hot corner in St. Louis.)

Outfield
Grady Sizemore (28.97, 26.9)
(Injury comeback will remind Grady’s Ladies to come back to the park.)
Curtis Granderson (50.18, 55.4)
(Nice new park, bounce-back average will combine for a good year.)
Manny Ramirez (64.88, 87)
(How old is too old?)
Carlos Gonzalez (123.79, 139.4)
(The hype train continues.)
Nyjer Morgan (131.25 ,178)
(Or perhaps the new Morgan, Brett Gardner (330.04, NA)?)
Nolan Reimold (203.88, 194.88)
(He should heel.)
Colby Rasmus (215.97, NA)
(There are questions here, but lots of upside here.)
Travis Snider (255.88, NA)
(Big power, big whiffa, big value at the price.)
J.D. Drew (297.07, NA)
(Still best as a fourth/fifth fantasy outfielder, Drew can still poke it out of the park from time to time.)
Drew Stubbs (311.23, NA)
(Deep league value for steals.)
Kyle Blanks (318.98, NA)
(Big, big Blanks is shooting nothing but moon-shots and sparks from his afro this year.)
Matt LaPorta (327.73, NA)
(A little subdued by recent news – the Russell Branyan signing, but still a good sleeper.)




Print This Post

Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


21 Responses to “ADP Value Recap”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. hamandcheese says:

    No love for Geovany Soto?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Jimbo says:

    Good call on Soto…I’d agree he should be there. Perhaps his ADP is already assuming a bounceback though.

    Guys like Soto, and even Cantu, are the sort that tend to fall below preseason ADP. At least in my league/experience. Mocks are one thing, but on draft day they’re among the first players teams wait on “that one extra round” while value pitchers or upside OF are taken.

    That’s why it pays to know your league and look back at past ADP lists vs draft results. Instead of ADP, I plan on having a modified rank based on league trends. We usually over draft last year stats and upside targets. Relievers and catchers go much later than average, and so on.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. I have ADP comparisons for the top 300 at ESPN-MDC and Yahoo available. It will be released on http://www.gameofinches.blogspot.com on March 10 (after my three money leagues draft), but until then you can email me at jegross2@gmail.com with the subject “Draft Rankings” and I will send you an excel copy.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. SF 55 for life says:

    Is Gordan Beckham still slated to be the everyday second baseman for the White Sox? Because if he is that ADP is an incredible value.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. SF 55 for life says:

    I have the 10th pick in a 12 team yahoo league. I’m getting Ryan Zimmerman in the third round at pick 34 with his ADP at 37.7 and then Beckham (who will play second) in the12th round at pick 135 with his ADP at 138.2.

    I firmly believe that this is the way to go for anyone with a late pick.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • PigBodine says:

      zimmerman is gonna creep up draft charts, especially when people realize how thin 3rd is. i wouldn’t count on him being there @ 34. he went late 2nd round in my 2 mocks this week. i know he’ll be at the top of my list if i have a bookend spot- picks 22-27. which might be a small reach, but you have to reach with those bookend spots.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Why the heck do people think 3B is thin?

        There is (rough HR/SB/AVG/RBI/R forecasts):
        Wright (25/20/.300/100/100)
        Arod(35/15/.290/100/100)
        Longoria (30/10/.275/90/85)
        Zimmerman (25/5/.290/100/100)
        Sandoval (25/5/.300/90/70)
        Beckham (20/10/.290/90/80)
        A-Ramirez (25/1/.290/95/70)
        Mark Reynolds (35/15/.260/90/90)
        Chone Figgins (3/40/.285/60/95)
        Chipper Jones (20/2/.290/90/80)
        Chris Davis (30/2/.285/90/75 >> if he K’s 30% rather than 40% of the time)

        There is also Ian Stewart, Adrian Beltre and Michael Young. You could also do worse with Mark DeRosa, Jake Fox and Alex Gordon

        By contrast, 2B/SS have a huge drop off after their top-5 or 6’s. OF is always deceptively shallow because you need 3 or 5 guys across 12 or so teams. So in any league where you only need 1 3B, there are 11 quality options with 6 guys you could deal with if you got them. Hell there’s even Inge. I’d rather pay for Beckham or stand pat with Michael Young and get Hanley than shell out big for a 3B

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Eno Sarris says:

        I went on record as saying that I thought 2B was the weakest position of the year. I also think that there are a lot of question marks on that list of thirdsackers. Zimm and Sandoval seem like the end of a significant tier.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Maybe, but the position isnt weak. 1B and SP may be quite loaded, but the 3B pool is, in my opinion, 4th weakest at best, or average

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. SF 55 for life says:

    I would say that third base is weaker than it has been in the past. I have done 5 Yahoo mock drafts so far and was able to get Zimmerman three times, and one time I got Sandoval. If Zimmerman fails to fall to me I guess my best bet would be to reach for Mark Reynolds with one of my two picks.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Bret says:

    I totally agree that 2B is the weakest position this year. That’s why in mock drafts I think Chase Utley is a great first round pick – pretty much the only top notch contributor at the position. Beckham could be a great value for 2B once he qualifies.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Person who does not want to disclose his drafting strategy says:

      Does this seem reasonable in terms of roto with respect to cost? It spends 257/260 dollars on a 23 player, 12-team league. I think it balances risk with value quite well, in theory. This is for a Yahoo league.

      Player Cost
      C Kurt Suzuki 5
      1B Chris Davis 5
      2B Gordon Beckham 15 >> will have to wait 5 games…
      SS Troy Tulowitzky 35
      3B David Wright 30
      OF Nelson Cruz 18
      OF Jay Bruce 14
      OF Nolan Reimold 10
      DH Julio Borbon 13
      SP Jon Lester 20
      SP Cole Hamels 17
      SP Ricky Nolasco 17
      RP Brian Wilson 10
      RP Billy Wagner 8
      P Brett Anderson 13
      P Trevor Hoffman 7
      P Matt Thorton 2
      P Kevin Slowey 8
      BN Max Scherzer 4
      BN Tim Hudson 3
      BN Colby Lewis 1
      BN Clay Buchholz 1
      BN Kelly Johsnon 1

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • I like this team. Davis seems to be a little cheap in my opinion (maybe you might need to spend the extra $3 there), but it looks like a team you could reasonably expect to buy at those prices…at least to me, it does.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. SF 55 for life says:

    i agree upgrading davis would be a good idea

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. jaw says:

    I posted this question over at THT as well, but wanted to get a point of view from over here.

    How does the ADP evaluation shake out if you treat Ian Stewart as a 2B rather than a 3B?

    MDC has a real ADP disparity, on my last check:
    Ian Stewart, 3B/2B Colorado
    ADP: 127
    Earliest pick: 69
    Latest pick: 159

    That is a HUGE range.

    I am thinking seriously about keeping him as my 2B in my 12-team mixed 7×6 straight keeper league (we count OBP, SLG, and HLDs, and each manager keeps up to 8 players, so the top 80-96 players are usually off the board, including most of the top 2B).

    Various projections for Stewart look make him look less ugly and more Uggla:

    Ian Stewart Projections
    24-29 HR / 8-12 SB / 80-90 R / 75-85 RBI / .255-.265 AVG / .340-.360 OBP / .480-.500 SLG

    The thing is, I am already banking on some upside plays—I think my current keepers will be:

    Evan Longoria (3B)

    Adam Dunn (1B/OF) (a great HR/OBP/SLG play)

    Pablo Sandoval (IF) (buoys Dunn’s average)

    Adam Lind (LF) (I think he repeats a .290+ BA and 29+ HR)

    Jay Bruce (RF) (upside/bounceback play)

    Adam Wainwright (SP) (hoping for a 90% repeat of last year)

    Tommy Hanson (SP) (upside/repeat )

    If I keep Stewart, I’m throwing Heath Bell and Hunter Pence back in the pool, and I fear I might have some problems with R/SB, so I’ll really have to draft a speedy shortstop and a fast/leadoff CF type.

    I’ll pick 11 of 12 in my serpentine draft, so I’m also worried I’ll miss out on a closer run.

    Would you dump Stewart and wait out for Rickie Weeks 3-5 rounds later?

    I’m interested to hear what you think—and I love these columns.

    Thanks!
    -JW

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. PigBodine says:

    there are definately some late round options at 3rd, when i saw it’s thin i meant more the significant drop off after the youk/sandoval tier. there is a similar drop at 2nd, i just think there are some late round options at 2nd that are better than the optons at 3rd- jose lopez getting no love as he emerges into a 25+HR 90 rbi guy, great value here.
    FWIW in the perfect world i take hanely in the 1st round and let the peices fall where they may. SS is prolly the thinnest position, especially in terms off stat drop-off. reyes could be a make it or break it pick in the 3rd. for those waiting on SS, too many unprooven options. escobar looked good in his call-up (but no pop), e. cabrera can definatley steal a bag but has some ave. questions and clearly no pop. the more i think about it- i really hope i get that 2nd over-all pick…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. I agree with many of these value picks, but when it comes to 2B/SS, its a top guy or bust, honestly.

    * Catcher: Catchers are almost completely fungible outside the top 4; they are all equally crappy. Alas, you will find good value in Matt Wieters (Brian McCann good at a fraction the cost), Geovany Soto (bounce back imminent), and Kurt Suzuki. Can’t get them? Just wait for A.J. Pierzynski in the 20th.

    * First Base: Joey Votto is a top 5 first basement going in the third. This may be the last year you get him at a discount. Lance Berkman in the sixth is almost criminal. Honestly, though, you couldn’t screw up first base if you tried.

    * Second Base: 2B is shallow this year, so getting one of the top guys is important. Gordon Beckham is my big value pick for 2010. No projection system on Fangraphs expects him to hit lower than .275 and most see him as a .280+ hitter with 20 HR/10 SB potential. If placed in the heart of the White Sox lineup, he will be just as valuable as Cano and Pedroia, but cost about 30-40% less. Beckham only has “3B” eligibility in Yahoo standard leagues (he will gain 2B eligibility the first week of the season), so you may be able pick him up with some owners asleep at the wheel. If you can’t get Beckham, try Asdrubal Cabrera. His 10/10, .300 talents may come packaged with 100 runs. The drop off after Cabrera is scary and you don’t want to be apart of that.

    * Shortstop: If 2B was the kiddie pool, SS is a puddle of water. It’s really only six players deep. After Zobrist is off the board, there remains only Asdrubal Cabrera in terms of multi-category positive players. The rest — guys like Elvis Andrus, Jason Bartlett, Steven Drew, and Evereth Cabrera — either come with huge regression risks (like flukey career years) or category killing stats (ie, Evereth Cabrera’s RBI “potential”).With this in mind, I have one true value pick. ESPN never stops talking about him, so it may be hard to fathom this, but Derek Jeter’s consistent .300+ average, 15 HR, 20+ SB ways make him an underrated fantasy commodity. 100 R and RBI is not out of the question when you bat amongst the AL’s most awesome offense in baseball’s most home run happy parks. Did I mention he’s only going in the late 3rd/early 4th round?

    * Third Base: Matthew Berry thinks 3B is shallow. I disagree, provided you don’t play with a CI position or have more than 12 players in your league. This is because the 12th ranked 3B is Chipper Jones. But Jones is not where you will find the true value in 2010. That lies in two players. The first is David Wright. Yes, he has an MLB-leading .400 BABIP last season and yes, his power diminished by more than 33% when Citi Field opened, but there are signs for hope. First and foremost, the Mets are chopping that monster wall in centerfield. Second, Wright was disproportionately shafted by Citi Field’s dimensions last season; even if he does not jack 30+ bombs in 2010, 25 is entirely plausible and completely valuable when paired with a .300+ AVG, 100 R/RBI, and 20+ SB. And that .400 BABIP? It was fueled by a downtick in home runs and abnormal spike in strikeouts. Whereas Wright never struckout even 20% of the time ever before in his career, he struck out 26.2% of the time in 2009. The risk with Wright is minimal and the upside is high. If you can’t get Wright, you can wait to the end of the draft and still get a plus-quality 3B who isn’t even ranked in most leagues. Thanks to his raw power and line drive talents, post-hype sleeper Chris Davis will be an absolute steal if he can shave his strikeout rate from 40% to even 30% this season (see September and his minor league numbers from 2009). Don’t let the strikeouts and Carlos Pena-like AVG fool you, he’s a .280+ hitter. And the power? That’s never been in question (67 HR between the majors and minors since 2008, .230 career ISO in the MLB).

    * Outfielders: The outfield is where the majority of the 5 category talent lies. Unfortunately, all of it tends to get drafted in the first few rounds, making the best talents in fantasy more scarce then they seem. Nelson Cruz (ADP of 63) is valued highly this season thanks to his 33 HR/20 SB output last season. With better health and lineup consistency expected in the future, fantasy owners are expecting an uptick in Rs and RBIs too. Cruz only misses a top 50 ranking only because the low batting average (.260 last season, .255 career) marks him as a 4-category (as opposed to 5) stud. A .280 BABIP and .319 xBABIP promise better luck in the future, however. Cruz’s xBABIP-adjusted 2009 triple slash line (assuming all additional hits would have been singles) was .288/.357/.552 (.909 OPS). Like Cruz, Jay Bruce also suffered from an extremely (and abnormally) low BABIP. The .082 disparity between Bruce’s actual BABIP and xBABIP was second to none. No one expects him to hit .300, but he’s a .275-or-better kind of guy according to xBABIP based projections. Only 23 years old, his .246 ISO from last season screams monster potential and as would be expected of anyone paired with Joey Votto, the RBIs will come aplenty. Another underrated stud is Carlos Gonzalez. The perennial prospect has bounced around quite a few farm systems in his career, but has finally found a home in cozy Coors Field. He hit 13 HR and stole 16 bases with a .289 average in a half season last year. A 20/20 campaign and .280 average is not out of the question by any means. If you can’t get any of these guys, try targeting Franklin Gutierrez (Matt Kemp-lite) and late in the draft (Jay Bruce-lite) late in the draft. Quality steals are also aplenty between Nyger Morgan, Julio Borbon (the best valued quality steals option, in my opinion), Juan Pierre (now that he’s a starting OF again), and Rajai Davis.

    * Designated Hitters: I am not a big fan of filling your utility spot with a DH because DH’s aren’t what they used to be. Whereas the average AL DH hit .264/.348/.470 (.818 OPS) in 2006, that line fell to .255/.337/.442 (.779 OPS) in 2009. Outside Vladimir Guerrero and David Ortiz, there’s no one really worth drafting unless the Indians give Russell Branyan or the Twins give Jim Thome some consistent ABs. Almost every DH comes with significant injury risk this season. Employ at your own peril.

    More like this in the name link.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>