AL Outfield Fallers: Sizemore, Wells & B.J. Upton
Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes…it rains. Fortunately, the ominous, dark clouds that usually precede the storm are visible enough to give you fair warning and help keep you from getting wet. So as we talk about the AL outfielders this week, here are a few that have those dark clouds hovering over that you might want to avoid.
Knee Jerk Reaction: Grady Sizemore
Let’s face it, when the cloud says micro-fracture knee surgery, it doesn’t get more dark and ominous than that. Injuries have ruined the once great 30-30 player that sat atop the fantasy rankings back in 2008, and I don’t see it getting much better. He had elbow concerns in ’09 that dropped his ISO 36 points and the knee issue last season that derailed any hope of a comeback. In fact, the extensive recovery process from this type of surgery, usually 6 to 9 months, has kept him out of most of Spring Training as it was only a few days ago that he even started fielding drills. I see another slow start for him this season, followed up with some pressing at the plate, and I certainly don’t see him doing too much running on the bases. I don’t care what the Bill James projections say, I think this former top 5 pick is middle round material at best these days.
Gone West…and Maybe South: Vernon Wells
The road has been a rocky one for Wells over the last few years, and despite last season’s resurgence, I don’t see the move to Los Angeles as anything that’s going to help him or his fantasy value. Sure, he’s got a fresh start, but the inconsistencies since 2007, coupled with the move to a very pitcher-friendly home in a division of pitcher-friendly parks would make me nervous about drafting him with any kind of high expectations. In a very Darin Erstad like way, Wells has gone the “every other year” route and has seen big swings in his ISO and wOBA each year. If the pattern continues we’re looking at a pretty weak year this season. Though the sample size of at bats is small, relatively speaking, Wells does not have good numbers out west over the past 3 seasons. The only park he finds success at, like everybody else, is in Arlington, while he’s sporting a combined .209 average with just 2 HR in the other three. And despite his ability to opt out of his contract this year, he has no real incentive to do so in an effort to grab a bigger payday as he’s set to make over $20M for the next 3 years anyway. I don’t know what the Angels were thinking and I’ll say the same for you if you reach too high for this potential bust.
Overdue and Overrated: B.J. Upton
I’ll admit it. I drank the Kool-Aid. I thought I was going to be on easy street grabbing Upton in my primary keeper league years ago and protecting him each season while waiting for the breakout. Problem is, we’re all still waiting. Sure, he’s had his flirtations like the 20-20 season in 2007 and swiping 40+ bags each year over the last 3 seasons, but it’s never been what we expected, and it’s never been worth where he’s been drafted over the last several years. Upton has gone from a potential first round stud to nothing more than an average middle round speedster and I don’t see it getting much better regardless of last year’s 18 HR. The batting average is atrocious, the OBP is certainly not pretty to look at, his ISO is league average at best, his K% is still on the rise, and even his SB% isn’t all that great. Yes, he had a decent year last year, but is he worth drafting anywhere above the 6th round? Not in my book. I know he’s only 26 and where position players usually hit their peak, but I think I’d rather grab someone with a better attitude and who can contribute more evenly across the board.
I hope you are wrong about Sizemore….that would be a real shame.
Truth be told, Upton does not have a bad attitude and is quite the team player. Unfortunately he has suffered from bad judgement and as bad luck would have it, they have all been caught on camera.
In 2008 he played the entire playoffs with his shoulder “hanging by a thread” (his words) and hit 6 hr’s in that post-season, if memory serves correct. Word out of camp is the shoulder injury really sapped his power the past 2 years and he altered his plate approach to try and cope. Looking at the hitting metrics I tend to agree as he’s above average with the soft stuff however couldn’t hit a fastball to save his life. He did say he finally started to feel close to 100% by the end of last year and looking at his August and September he hit .261 with 10 HR’s in 192 AB’s. Factor that over his traditional 540 AB’s per season and he’s on a 28 HR pace. Let’s assume he finally is 100% recovered from the injury and we could realistically see .265 30/40. And if you really want to get crazy all you have to do is look at April and May of 2008, before he injured his shoulder, and you’ll se a player who hit .305, stole 17 bags, and had an OBP of .410 (however with only 3 HR’s… Sacrificing power for contact??).
Strikeouts might always be a problem with him but it is encouraging that he has yet to k this spring (17 AB’s). Hopefully a trend that continues into the season.
While I would probably not draft him in the 6th round I don’t think you have to this year. He can realistically be a top 5 OF this year and no one would be surprised (which is more than you can say for Wells and Sizemore at this point). For someone who is only 26, and with all that talent, (most scouts say he has more natural ability than his brother) I would certainly keep him on my radar.
So the argument is “the injury excuse that was used for his 2009 performance is also good for his 2010 performance”! When does that injury coupon expire?
As well, small sample size (192 ABs in Aug/Sept 2010) followed by small sample size (17 Spring Training ABs in 2011) means that happy days are here again? Uh yeah, I’ll pass on that logic.
Not trying to be an ass, just giving the pessimist’s case versus the optimistic one you’re offering.
Proposition: once a player has shown a skill, that skill can be reclaimed. In BJ’s case, there’s no reason to think his eye has permanently worsened. His K rate can come down, and if that’s the case, coupled with his increased ISO, he has extremely high upside.
“I think this former top 5 pick is middle round material at best these days.”
Well that’s true…and it almost might make him a decent (fantasy) value. I drafted him in a league…as my 4th outfielder. His price is incredibly low right now. Yes, there’s a good chance he’ll be a shell of his former self, but if you get him in the 15th round like I did, there is certainly the potential for a huge profit.
Upton’s attitude would have me worried about the clubhouse chemistry on my fantasy team too. ..
BJ Upton = Drew Stubbs
People are high on Stubbs and down on Upton. I’ll take Upton at a discount price. I’d rather sacrifice a bit of average than get SB’s from someone who won’t top 5 hrs.