AL SP ADP: Early Results

I aim to please. In trying to come up with a topic for today’s post, I read the applause to Jeff Zimmerman’s 2B ADP article, and in particular the plea to see a similar post for all positions. Well what readers want, readers get. Although I have periodically taken a look at Mock Draft Central’s ADP results in past weeks and covered some early overvalued and undervalued pitchers, here is how the entire set of AL pitchers are being drafted.

Player ADP Round Earliest Latest
Justin Verlander 9 1 3 25
Felix Hernandez 27 3 17 43
CC Sabathia 31 3 20 56
Jered Weaver 33 3 21 53
David Price 39 4 29 58
Dan Haren 43 4 32 64
Jon Lester 51 5 35 79
James Shields 67 6 41 92
Ricky Romero 88 8 67 122
C.J. Wilson 89 8 53 119
Josh Beckett 91 8 62 131
Michael Pineda 95 8 49 126
Matt Moore 103 9 64 208
Jeremy Hellickson 127 11 94 157
Yu Darvish 127 11 66 209
Ervin Santana 150 13 121 194
Ubaldo Jimenez 154 13 93 196
Max Scherzer 154 13 110 195
Derek Holland 164 14 99 204
Hiroki Kuroda 171 15 121 205
Doug Fister 177 15 102 215
Brandon Morrow 185 16 107 227
John Danks 192 16 153 -ND-
Justin Masterson 200 17 148 -ND-
Colby Lewis 205 18 162 -ND-
Brandon McCarthy 207 18 156 -ND-
Clay Buchholz 208 18 133 -ND-
Alexi Ogando 208 18 142 -ND-
Scott Baker 215 18 160 -ND-
Jonathan Sanchez 222 18 218 -ND-
Matt Harrison 227 19 195 -ND-
Brett Anderson 228 19 187 -ND-
Gavin Floyd 229 20 197 -ND-
Ivan Nova 230 20 128 -ND-
Francisco Liriano 232 20 195 -ND-
Luke Hochevar 234 20 223 -ND-
Alfredo Aceves 234 20 197 -ND-
Jake Peavy 235 20 227 -ND-
Henderson Alvarez 240 20 232 -ND-
Rick Porcello 242 21 234 -ND-
Phil Hughes 257 22 249 -ND-
A.J. Burnett 268 23 259 -ND-
Brian Matusz 274 23 265 -ND-
Dallas Braden 279 24 270 -ND-
Jeff Niemann 283 24 274 -ND-
Wade Davis 312 26 302 -ND-
Brad Peacock 321 27 310 -ND-
Jarrod Parker 331 28 320 -ND-
Philip Humber 343 29 332 -ND-
Jacob Turner 346 29 335 -ND-
Josh Tomlin 362 31 350 -ND-
Jeremy Guthrie 377 32 365 -ND-
John Lackey 389 32 376 -ND-
Derek Lowe 405 34 392 -ND-
Brian Duensing 455 38 440 -ND-
Carl Pavano 457 39 442 -ND-

Thoughts:

-Justin Verlander with an ADP of 9?! Umm pass.

-Matt Moore at 103 and in the 9th round I am actually okay with. Of course, he’ll have an innings limit, but even in 170 innings, I think he is reasonably valued here.

-Jeremy Hellickson isn’t as overvalued as I thought he may be. I think he is being drafted a touch too early still, but there is really no one being drafted after him that I am real confident will outperform him, except for…

-Yu Darvish. At 127. I don’t know how many league drafts this includes after his signing, and if he is going earlier now that he officially has a team. But I think he is an absolute bargain this late. I would probably rank him right behind Shields and think a pick in the 8th round or so is your break even point.

-Ervin Santana went from boring late round mixed league pick to round out a staff to a 13th rounder on the heels of great fortune. Don’t bother.

-One of the things to look for during spring training is where Ubaldo Jimenez‘ velocity sits. If reports tell us it has rebounded and he is back throwing consistently in the mid-to-high 90′s, it is time to get back on board. Since his draft cost will almost certainly not jump that much after such news, he should still have the potential to yield a nice profit.

-Brandon Morrow is the perennial stat-head sleeper and all the speculation about what issues are causing him to continually underperform his peripherals should be easily correctable. In other words, his ERA can catch up to his SIERA any year without warning. In the 16th round, it’s worth it to take the chance in the hopes that the year is this one.

-I am surprised how late Justin Masterson is going. People really prefer Doug Fister to him?

-Francisco Liriano certainly dropped off the face of the earth, huh? Obviously, his health is the biggest question mark and can make him one of the best picks of the draft or lead to another lost season. In the 20th round, may as well take the gamble.

-Poor Rick Porcello. He is having nightmares now of Miguel Cabrera at the hot corner fielding all his ground balls.




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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

21 Responses to “AL SP ADP: Early Results”

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  1. Detroit Michael says:

    Phil Humber 60-70 picks behind Brian Matusz looks like a real value.

    Besides Yu Darvish being too low, other Texas starters are too high because someone (Ogando? Harrison?) will be stuck in middle relief unless there is a trade.

    It looks like taking pitchers in rounds 16 and 17 might yield a much greater selection than waiting a couple of rounds.

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  2. Colin says:

    Drafting pitchers in round one is always very strange to me. JV and Felix are probably the two best AL SP’s going forward but they are still way to close to CC, to Weaver, to Price, to Haren ect. to justify taking them well before the others.

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  3. dscottncc says:

    Jonathan Sanchez in round `18 looks like a steal to me. 2011 was by far his worst year, but what are you really hoping for at that point? an ace of the staff or someone that will hurt your ERA and Whip but can put up more than a K per inning. I’ll take the gamble for good strikeouts late while hoping for a rebound to his ERA. Of course i am offsetting this with a good Whip stud early.

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  4. Faulty Ranks says:

    dan hudson? ian kennedy? beachy?

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  5. glenstein says:

    I’ve done a few mock drafts there. In my experience the vast majority of drafts are empty. Presumably those don’t get counted toward ADP. But many of the drafts are half-filled.

    And often managers leave around the half way point in a draft, and give way to auto-picks. Besides that, I’ve noticed myself being heavily influenced by the default suggested rankings- so I would let Justin Masterson go simply because you get a strong sense that he will be around later.

    So I wonder if the default rankings provided by MDC cause people to get caught in a feedback loop that reinforces itself.

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    • Mocking bird says:

      I have to agree with the above view of mock-drafting. They are usually only half full, and even then, the drafters leave way before the draft is over. I think what we’re seeing here is a product of the rankings.

      Here’s a question: Why not have Fangraph readership participate in a mock draft, then analyse that?

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      • Mocking bird says:

        Also, Mock-auctions would be handy.

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      • Yup, absolutely agree. These ADPs are heavily influenced by the default rankings and the site providing their ADP data. Of course, missing drafters and the fact it’s a mock to begin with also screws with the results. BUT, it’s all we have, and this data, as flawed as it may be, is better than nothing. And what else do we have to debate about in fantasy baseball before February hits?!

        Yeah, mock auctions would be interesting, but it would take way too long, so would be hard to generate interest in participating.

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      • glenstein says:

        @Mike: It would be difficult. BUT! You allow for fan stat projections. What if you let fans specify fantasy info for players in the same way? They could specify dollar values and suggested draft slots.

        Lots of people have some sort of private lists they work from to rank players anyway. Fangraphs could be the receptacle for that and do interesting stuff with the information.

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      • @glenstein Fantastic idea. Stay tuned…

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    • MustBunique says:

      Good point on MDC, and my advice is this: Use the ADP’s as a tool, not a law governing how you draft your team. Take how your league has historically drafted into consideration along with the ADP reports. It’s good information to have, just be careful how you use it.

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      • Mocking bird says:

        MD info is most valuable in less competitive leagues, I find. Casual managers draft almost exclusively by the pre-draft rankings, so it’s way more predictable. Like fish in a barrel…

        Competitive league drafts, on the other hand, almost never unfold the same way.

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      • jimbo says:

        I use adp more for seeing the order players are going at a position…not necessarily which round.

        If I have a sleeper in mind (say, Dee Gordon) then I’ll use ADP results to help “time” my pick. He’s going right after Rollins/Jeter/Hardy/Aybar…so as soon as guys from that group start going I’ll pull the trigger, regardless of which round we’re in.

        Not always ideal, but in the middle rounds it can create anxiety to have 3 targets at 3 positions and be stressed about which is likely to last longest. I find adp most helpful in educating those guesses.

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  6. johnnycuff says:

    chris sale?

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    • I filtered based on MDC’s position classification. So he and the rest of the guys expected to transition into the rotation will still be listed as an RP. This includes guys like Bard, Neftali Feliz and Aaron Crow. If I were to rank them, it would be Sale, Bard, Feliz and Crow.

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  7. Jack says:

    Much more bullish on Dravish than I am. 8th rd pick would make him a Top 20-25 pitcher in MLB (Not just AL). He may turn out to be that good, but I do not think anything knows. It seems he would have to end up as Top 10 to justify the risk of drafting him as high as the 8th rd.

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    • jimbo says:

      His spring may dictate his actual draft position. My guess is that most leagues will have an owner who wants to prove how wise they are with a bit of a reach.

      Just don’t see guys get a lot of press and then fall in drafts. Only takes one owner to believe the hype.

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  8. Brad Johnson says:

    For a second, I was worried I set the earliest line on Moore. I went back and see that I took him 84 overall, but I’d be willing to draft him pre-60 in certain circumstances.

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  9. Brad Johnson says:

    And please, keep up the good work. These lists make it very easy to tweak my personal boards.

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