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AL SP ADP: Early Results

Posted By Mike Podhorzer On January 26, 2012 @ 8:15 am In Starting Pitchers | 21 Comments

I aim to please. In trying to come up with a topic for today’s post, I read the applause to Jeff Zimmerman’s 2B ADP article, and in particular the plea to see a similar post for all positions. Well what readers want, readers get. Although I have periodically taken a look at Mock Draft Central’s ADP results in past weeks and covered some early overvalued and undervalued pitchers, here is how the entire set of AL pitchers are being drafted.

Player ADP Round Earliest Latest
Justin Verlander 9 1 3 25
Felix Hernandez 27 3 17 43
CC Sabathia 31 3 20 56
Jered Weaver 33 3 21 53
David Price 39 4 29 58
Dan Haren 43 4 32 64
Jon Lester 51 5 35 79
James Shields 67 6 41 92
Ricky Romero 88 8 67 122
C.J. Wilson 89 8 53 119
Josh Beckett 91 8 62 131
Michael Pineda 95 8 49 126
Matt Moore 103 9 64 208
Jeremy Hellickson 127 11 94 157
Yu Darvish 127 11 66 209
Ervin Santana 150 13 121 194
Ubaldo Jimenez 154 13 93 196
Max Scherzer 154 13 110 195
Derek Holland 164 14 99 204
Hiroki Kuroda 171 15 121 205
Doug Fister 177 15 102 215
Brandon Morrow 185 16 107 227
John Danks 192 16 153 -ND-
Justin Masterson 200 17 148 -ND-
Colby Lewis 205 18 162 -ND-
Brandon McCarthy 207 18 156 -ND-
Clay Buchholz 208 18 133 -ND-
Alexi Ogando 208 18 142 -ND-
Scott Baker 215 18 160 -ND-
Jonathan Sanchez 222 18 218 -ND-
Matt Harrison 227 19 195 -ND-
Brett Anderson 228 19 187 -ND-
Gavin Floyd 229 20 197 -ND-
Ivan Nova 230 20 128 -ND-
Francisco Liriano 232 20 195 -ND-
Luke Hochevar 234 20 223 -ND-
Alfredo Aceves 234 20 197 -ND-
Jake Peavy 235 20 227 -ND-
Henderson Alvarez 240 20 232 -ND-
Rick Porcello 242 21 234 -ND-
Phil Hughes 257 22 249 -ND-
A.J. Burnett 268 23 259 -ND-
Brian Matusz 274 23 265 -ND-
Dallas Braden 279 24 270 -ND-
Jeff Niemann 283 24 274 -ND-
Wade Davis 312 26 302 -ND-
Brad Peacock 321 27 310 -ND-
Jarrod Parker 331 28 320 -ND-
Philip Humber 343 29 332 -ND-
Jacob Turner 346 29 335 -ND-
Josh Tomlin 362 31 350 -ND-
Jeremy Guthrie 377 32 365 -ND-
John Lackey 389 32 376 -ND-
Derek Lowe 405 34 392 -ND-
Brian Duensing 455 38 440 -ND-
Carl Pavano 457 39 442 -ND-

Thoughts:

-Justin Verlander with an ADP of 9?! Umm pass.

-Matt Moore at 103 and in the 9th round I am actually okay with. Of course, he’ll have an innings limit, but even in 170 innings, I think he is reasonably valued here.

-Jeremy Hellickson isn’t as overvalued as I thought he may be. I think he is being drafted a touch too early still, but there is really no one being drafted after him that I am real confident will outperform him, except for…

-Yu Darvish. At 127. I don’t know how many league drafts this includes after his signing, and if he is going earlier now that he officially has a team. But I think he is an absolute bargain this late. I would probably rank him right behind Shields and think a pick in the 8th round or so is your break even point.

-Ervin Santana went from boring late round mixed league pick to round out a staff to a 13th rounder on the heels of great fortune. Don’t bother.

-One of the things to look for during spring training is where Ubaldo Jimenez‘ velocity sits. If reports tell us it has rebounded and he is back throwing consistently in the mid-to-high 90′s, it is time to get back on board. Since his draft cost will almost certainly not jump that much after such news, he should still have the potential to yield a nice profit.

-Brandon Morrow is the perennial stat-head sleeper and all the speculation about what issues are causing him to continually underperform his peripherals should be easily correctable. In other words, his ERA can catch up to his SIERA any year without warning. In the 16th round, it’s worth it to take the chance in the hopes that the year is this one.

-I am surprised how late Justin Masterson is going. People really prefer Doug Fister to him?

-Francisco Liriano certainly dropped off the face of the earth, huh? Obviously, his health is the biggest question mark and can make him one of the best picks of the draft or lead to another lost season. In the 20th round, may as well take the gamble.

-Poor Rick Porcello. He is having nightmares now of Miguel Cabrera at the hot corner fielding all his ground balls.


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