I aim to please. In trying to come up with a topic for today’s post, I read the applause to Jeff Zimmerman’s 2B ADP article, and in particular the plea to see a similar post for all positions. Well what readers want, readers get. Although I have periodically taken a look at Mock Draft Central’s ADP results in past weeks and covered some early overvalued and undervalued pitchers, here is how the entire set of AL pitchers are being drafted.
–Justin Verlander with an ADP of 9?! Umm pass.
–Matt Moore at 103 and in the 9th round I am actually okay with. Of course, he’ll have an innings limit, but even in 170 innings, I think he is reasonably valued here.
–Jeremy Hellickson isn’t as overvalued as I thought he may be. I think he is being drafted a touch too early still, but there is really no one being drafted after him that I am real confident will outperform him, except for…
-Yu Darvish. At 127. I don’t know how many league drafts this includes after his signing, and if he is going earlier now that he officially has a team. But I think he is an absolute bargain this late. I would probably rank him right behind Shields and think a pick in the 8th round or so is your break even point.
–Ervin Santana went from boring late round mixed league pick to round out a staff to a 13th rounder on the heels of great fortune. Don’t bother.
-One of the things to look for during spring training is where Ubaldo Jimenez‘ velocity sits. If reports tell us it has rebounded and he is back throwing consistently in the mid-to-high 90’s, it is time to get back on board. Since his draft cost will almost certainly not jump that much after such news, he should still have the potential to yield a nice profit.
–Brandon Morrow is the perennial stat-head sleeper and all the speculation about what issues are causing him to continually underperform his peripherals should be easily correctable. In other words, his ERA can catch up to his SIERA any year without warning. In the 16th round, it’s worth it to take the chance in the hopes that the year is this one.
–Francisco Liriano certainly dropped off the face of the earth, huh? Obviously, his health is the biggest question mark and can make him one of the best picks of the draft or lead to another lost season. In the 20th round, may as well take the gamble.