AL SP: The Sell High Guys
Last week, I looked at several American League starting pitchers off to disappointing starts and asked whether we should buy low or not. This week I am not going to do the same as the only possible argument one can make for continued success from these pitchers is their team’s defense. As such, all are strong sells as I would much prefer to bet on skill winning out that expecting elite defensive support to continue.
Seriously? How has a guy who has walked more than he has struck out managed to post an ERA near 2.00 over 58.2 innings? A nearly 67% ground ball rate obviously helps immensely, but when you have only struck out 15 batters in those innings, you are walking quite the tight rope. Speaking of walking, at least Lowe has issued only 18 free passes, but his F-Strike% is at a career low and well below the league average. What happens if his control regresses plus his luck runs out? It’s bombs away and his ERA skyrockets towards 4.50-5.00. I honestly wouldn’t even touch him in an AL-Only league. Trade him for anything you can get at this point to someone desperate for any pitcher with a pulse.
Hellickson would normally appear in this type of column, but he is doing exactly what he did last year. It is still too early to completely redefine the rules and claim he has some crazy BABIP and base-runner stranding skills. At this point, it still could be nothing more than some good fortune over a little over a season’s worth of innings, but I have officially given up trying to come up with an explanation. I will tell you one thing- just like Matt Cain, he will never appear on my fantasy teams!
He would have been a solid candidate, but now on the DL with a strained shoulder, it will be tough to trade him away. A more than 1.00 difference between his SIERA and ERA means you might not have a chance to let him reestablish his trade value when he returns.
It might still be difficult to get single season leaguers to bite, but keeper leagues should be trying their best to give away Drabek. The ground ball rate is fantastic, but man his control is terrible. He is last among all starters in baseball in Zone% and third to last in F-Strike%. So yeah, that walk rate is no fluke and not looking to decline anytime soon. He’s actually not too different than Edinson Volquez, but his stuff and strikeout ability isn’t as good, and he plays in a much worse division and home ball park. While the nearly 18% HR/FB ratio will obviously come down, that BABIP is going to rise, while his LOB% falls precipitously.
Alvarez is the Blue Jays version of Derek Lowe. And yes, another Blue Jays pitcher makes this list. You might be wondering if maybe the Jays defense is a factor here, but the answer is curious. While they do indeed lead baseball in BABIP against, they are actually below average in UZR/150. I have read that they have been employing the shift quite aggressively this year and more so than in past seasons. This would suggest that the low BABIP may be sustainable. Last year, the Rays led baseball with a .265 BABIP and no team has posted a mark below .270 in previous recent seasons. It is hard to believe the Jays’ BABIP doesn’t rise some, especially since their UZR/150 is below average. When that defense starts to fall back to Earth, Alvarez and is putrid strikeout rate are going to crash as well. He may even find himself back in the minors as a starting pitcher simply cannot sustain success with a strikeout rate below 3.0.
Alvarez gets enough ground balls and walks few enough to make a below-average K rate work if his infield defense is solid. The high HR rate looks more disturbing than the low K rate. His velocity is good, and all he has to do is get his K rate closer to last year’s level to balance a regression in BABIP.
With Alvarez, I think a legitimate alternative argument is that he’s purposely pitching to contact within the strike Zone because he’s got sufficient movement and ground ball tendencies to avoid good contact. So…. The goal is to force contact in as few pitches as possible, resulting in an ability to get deeper into games. I think this spring when he was playing with his slider he showed he could strike out batters.
Agree, and I think odds are his K per 9 regresses to his career levels: 6 plus in minors, 5 plus last year in the pros, so call it high 4s low 5s. With that control, command and elite GB rate, he could be a very solid #3 with a 5K per 9 rate. Fangraphs guys aren’t seeing that for some reason, falling prey to SSS. DIPs theory isn’t perfect but that’s rarely realized here. It’s gospel. So you wind up with a ton of Max Scherzers on your team and miss guys like Alvarez. His xFIP has come down a bunch while his ERA has climbed. We’ll see his true capacity in the numbers in a few months.
You’ve hit on something with the Jays that also applies, in some measure, to Hellickson and the Rays. The Rays have been one of, if not the best defensive team in the Majors. Possibly not coincidentally, they’ve been by far the most aggressive team to employ the shift. So, there’s some reason why Hellickson would appear to have an outlier BABIP. It wouldn’t explain why it’s so much lower than his teammates, unless he’s particularly good at inducing hits into shifted territory, which is something worth considering. Any sort of spray chart against Hellickson available?
Useful info on defense and the shift:
http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=324
http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=328
http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=329
What’s wrong with Matt Cain? I draft him in the 5th-7th round every year he gives me better stats than at least 5 pitchers drafted before him. And then the next year he gets passed over again and puts up even better stats with no injuries. I’ll give you Hellickson but just accept Cain’s for real already!
Would’ve thought Peavy on this list.
Peavy has to be on this list. Career lows in ground ball rate and BABIP (.249) and is getting lucky with a HR/FB of 4.7, lower than any season he’s had including the 7.5 seasons in Petco
Glad to see Peavy NOT on this list. Health issues aside, he could be legit.
Any chance we could get a Buy Low version? or an NL version?
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/al-sp-to-buy-low-or-not-to-buy-low/
I have owned Cain the last two years and unfortunately I let him pass this year. We count quality starts, so he is a stud in our league.
I have watched a couple games Hellickson pitched and his command under pressure appears to be on point. He doesn’t get phased and finds his way out of the woods. He is one of those guys who’s value is not properly accounted for by WAR.
i always make a point to draft cain, and have done so in every league i’ve played in beginning in 2010
Derek Lowe is a sell high? Huh, who knew?
Sorry Mike, but I’m not feeling this list. I don’t think anyone would able move any of these guys, period.
Nobody would be able to move Hellickson? Really? He was a top prospect whose results have so far matched the hype. The K/BB ratio isn’t all that appetizing, but the shiny career ERA is enticing.
Hellickson is not as easy to trade as you might think. I haven’t exactly been aiming for the stars, either. Ian Kenneday, wainwright when his results were poor, plus I’ve paired him with guys for offers on guys like Gallardo. No one seems to want his production at face value.
You don’t think anyone would be interested in Lowe in an AL-Only league, where any pitcher with a rotation spot is basically owned? Someone is going to need pitching and he’s a prime guy to try hard to trade away.
Alvarez should not be on this list. You cant sell high on a guy who everyone is questioning, everywhere. Your league-mates are probably not stupid enough to ignore the constant articles pointing out his low K rate and predicting imminent doom. A high return is just not going to be there.
But at the same time, if you are in a keeper league with quite a few spots, you probably shouldnt even be thinking about selling him anyway.
As Bill states above, the biggest problem constantly harped on in articles is something he is doing on purpose! He can K more people if he chose to, but it is not beneficial now. He is 22 and learning to pitch, not just throw. And he is even having great success in the process. He is so far ahead of where most 22yos normally are though, and his stuff is just so unbelievably nasty he’ll leave your jaw on the ground a couple times a game. In the next couple years, everyone is going to know his name.
What are you basing that on? He’s never had a K/9 above 6.75 in any level of the majors or minors.
Isn’t his comp Rick Porcello?
Oh thats right, I forgot how new math tells us 6.75 is actually lower then 2.75. My bad…
As far as his future, watch the Knee-to-ground drop he is still developing, catch him touching 100 on the gun or check out the insanely weak contact he is specifically trying to induce now. Think about his being 22, never starting more then 14 minor-league games above AA and really still being nothing more then a 2 pitch kid learning to control and trust a slider.
Watching him pitch is just sick and that he is still just this rushed kid learning not only a breaking ball, but also what he is doing overall at the ML level is truly amazing.
Blah:
I couldn’t agree more.
I don’t disagree with you on Hellickson, but you’re missing the boat with Cain. He’s always displayed the ability to maintain a low BABIP… if you’re waiting for the correction to come, it never will. Pay no attention to Cain’s predictive ERA stats, he consistently outperforms his peripherals. He has an extremely stable skill set and is as reliable as they come.
I have basically come around to Cain as believing at this point it’s not luck. But still, given the choice of another pitcher whose ERA matches his peripherals and Matt Cain, both with the same projected value, I’ll go the other guy every time. If I can’t explain Cain, he ain’t joining my team.
The point about Cain is kind of out of place at this point – not only has he established that he is able to outpitch his FIP/xFIP substantially, his peripherals have been consistently improving to the point that they are now elite as well.
Let me guess, I should buy low on Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez. This kind of BABIP/LOB dogma is getting antiquated.
Ha! I constantly laugh at all the fools that pass on and avoid Cain while he gets better and better every year. And he’s only 27!!! I wonder if the stat heads and major fantasy sites get duped by the most over rated, simplistic stat ever, Wins. If he was on the cardinals he’d get 16 plus wins every year and be a top 12 pitcher on every site on the earth. That’s right, the whole Earth!
I cut bait with Lowe a couple of weeks ago in my home league. It has been painful (particularly after Danny Duffy went down), but the bottom is going to fall out and when it does it’s going to be brutal.