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Alex Gordon: He Is Who We Thought He Was

Posted By Jeff Zimmerman On August 19, 2011 @ 11:15 am In Meta Analysis | 21 Comments

Alex Gordon has generally been seen as a disappoint since being called up to the majors. After spending a couple seasons bouncing to and from the majors and the minors, he is finally producing like he was somewhat expected to when he was drafted as the #2 overall pick out of Nebraska. Gordon’s break out this season isn’t really a breakout, he has always produced at this level in the majors.

The 27 year old is having a decent season by hitting 0.295 with 15 home runs. Since he has been batting at the top of the Royals line up, he has 76 Runs and 12 SB. ZIP’s ROS has him producing 19 HR, 15 SB, 77 RBIs, 95 Runs and 0.290 AVG. Those numbers are respectable for a player that was drafted in the last rounds, if at all, on draft day. While all these stats look to be career highs, Alex is just this season getting the MLB PA and he is producing like he always did.

Starting with home runs, he has averaged 9.6% HR/FB% over his career with a range of 8.5% to 12.0%. His 10.3% this season fits right in. Besides not hitting any more HR per FB, he is hitting the same number of OF FB this season. He averaged a FB% of 35.5% over his career which has ranged from 30.7% to 39.8%. Again, his 2011 35.1% value fits right in.

Also, it may seem that he is able to be a nice source of SB, which could end up as a personal high since he was first called up in 2007. Over his career he has stolen bases 5.8% of the time he has been on base. This season it was nudged up to 6.2%. Not really a speed break out.

Finally it may seem that Alex’s AVG (0.285) is going to be at a career high this season. This value is being driven by a career high 0.352 BABIP. Even though the BABIP would be a career high in the majors, he did have 0.383 BABIP while in the minors. Using his batted ball data, his xBABIP projects to be 0.330 for the season which is closer to his career value of 0.309.

Alex should have around a 0.280 AVG, 15 to 25 HRs, 10 to 20 SBs, and 150 Runs+RBIs if he gets 600 PA in 2012. These numbers are not going to get him star treatment, but he should viable contributor in all but the shallowest of leagues.


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