All Star Break Consensus Ranks: Outfielders

My ideal set of rankings has input from both human and computer sources. In our rankings, we have one set of ranks that are built on projections, meaning that overall our rankings are 25% computer. That’s low for me. But I know that our other three human rankers also use the computer projections to varying degrees, so the number is probably closer to 50% computer, which I like.

But, ostensibly, we have one computer ranker. Jeff Zimmerman uses a proprietary mix of ZiPs and Steamer projections, and then takes the plate appearance projections from our depth charts. Every once in a while a player won’t be updated on the depth charts — human error — but if we stay vigilant, this mix should produce the best computer-generated rankings you can find. The addition of depth chart information can do a lot to undo the biggest flaw in projections: they don’t always know who has the job.

One remaining avenue to deal with with respect to the computer rankings is what to do with the missing plate appearances due to projected injury. Zimmerman has done a lot to advance the state of injury projections, and some of that is now built into the various projections he uses. We know that past DL stints predict future ones, for example. And that age is a heavy factor. But once those PAs and IPs are gone, they can be replaced through the waiver wire.

That opens up a whole can of worms. Are we to give an injured player credit for the player that replaces him? Who will that replacement player be? Are you on weekly waivers, or daily? Do you have an FAAB? That would suggest that late-season injuries are more harmful to your team. Same for head-to-head leagues. Seemingly, we should ding a player for getting hurt a lot. But we should also maybe work on finding some way to replace back some of those missed innings and plate appearances with a replacement level number. We’ll work on that.

As for naming Zimmerman’s column something else, I don’t get it. We all use projections in the pre-season, should we just name our pre-season rankings after the projections we’re using? And even in-season, we’re looking at all the information we can. I’d hate to name my projections swSTR%GB%battedballdistanceBABIPspeed, for example. Jeff Zimmerman does the work, Jeff Zimmerman‘s name is on the ranking.

So. Do we have some work we can do? Sure, we’ve been looking at replacement level. We need to make sure our depth charts are all updated going into ranking seasons. These rankings have been gradually evolving since we started them, and they will continue to do so.

But I would say we are well on our way to an ideal set of rankings from an ideological standpoint. At least my ideological standpoint.

I welcome discussion on a theoretical level. Every set of rankings ever is subject to arguments about single players. We won’t eradicate those discussions — they’re fun! — but they are not necessarily germane to the issue at hand.

Thanks for reading!

With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto. Jeff Zimmerman‘s rankings are a combination of ZiPs and Steamer rest-of-season projections with playing time determined by our depth charts. You can find the projections on every player page and the depth charts here.


RG Player ES JZ MP ZS
1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 2
2 Carlos Gonzalez 2 3 2 3
3 Andrew McCutchen 3 4 4 4
4 Ryan Braun 8 2 3 7
5 Adam Jones 4 5 7 6
6 Chris Davis 6 19 5 1
7 Bryce Harper 7 13 8 5
8 Jose Bautista 10 11 6 8
9 Giancarlo Stanton 5 8 10 14
10 Justin Upton 9 9 11 17
11 Shin-Soo Choo 12 12 18 9
12 Jacoby Ellsbury 11 15 9 19
13 Adrian Gonzalez 15 18 20 11
14 Alex Rios 19 17 17 12
15 Matt Holliday 20 16 12 18
16 Jay Bruce 14 14 16 28
17 Jason Heyward 16 28 14 20
18 Matt Kemp 23 24 15 25
19 Yasiel Puig 17 6 35 30
20 Yoenis Cespedes 18 26 13 31
21 Allen Craig 24 22 22 24
22 Starling Marte 13 10 27 43
23 Nelson Cruz 27 29 23 15
24 Alex Gordon 26 23 25 22
25 Carlos Gomez 25 38 24 10
26 Carlos Beltran 30 34 21 13
27 Desmond Jennings 22 21 26 34
28 Hunter Pence 31 25 33 23
29 Austin Jackson 34 33 32 21
30 Michael Bourn 21 20 43 37
31 Mark Trumbo 29 35 36 27
32 Shane Victorino 28 31 31 41
33 Norichika Aoki 35 30 40 33
34 Michael Cuddyer 31 39 34 35
35 Ben Zobrist 38 41 29 36
36 Dexter Fowler 37 44 48 16
37 Nick Markakis 39 46 37 29
38 Josh Hamilton 32 42 19 67
39 Alejandro De Aza 36 37 47 44
40 Carl Crawford 41 55 30 42
41 Domonic Brown 40 54 28 50
42 Jayson Werth 43 56 38 39
43 Martin Prado 44 47 52 38
44 Melky Cabrera 55 40 57 32
45 Coco Crisp 33 43 55 59
46 Adam Eaton 51 51 50 45
47 Torii Hunter 47 45 59 56
48 Ichiro Suzuki 56 32 45 76
49 Alfonso Soriano 49 48 49 65
50 Curtis Granderson 42 49 39 83
51 Brett Gardner 50 58 44 61
52 Nick Swisher 54 60 46 58
53 Wil Myers 57 57 68 40
54 B.J. Upton 48 36 41 101
55 Adam Dunn 53 53 60 60
56 Matt Carpenter 46 89 65 26
57 Michael Brantley 45 50 66 66
58 Matt Joyce 52 68 74 48
59 Josh Reddick 65 70 62 54
60 Gerardo Parra 66 62 70 55
61 Todd Frazier 60 72 53 68
62 Lorenzo Cain 59 75 42 79
63 Jon Jay 74 59 78 46
64 David Murphy 62 77 63 62
65 Nate McLouth 69 98 51 47
66 Garrett Jones 61 61 95 57
67 Leonys Martin 64 82 56 72
68 Colby Rasmus 67 64 81 63
69 Marcell Ozuna 58 67 88 77
70 Jason Kubel 70 79 58 87
71 Logan Morrison 63 96 84 51
72 Andre Ethier 68 65 77 91
73 Carlos Quentin 71 88 73 69
74 Dayan Viciedo 80 69 61 98
75 Chris Carter 81 74 76 78
76 Daniel Nava 78 120 64 49
77 Michael Morse 72 90 54 99
78 Raul Ibanez 79 121 67 52
79 Denard Span 82 76 80 82
80 Brandon Moss 90 86 75 71
81 Andy Dirks 73 92 87 89
82 Michael Saunders 83 94 69 95
83 Nate Schierholtz 89 103 100 53
84 Drew Stubbs 92 81 72 107
85 Eric Young 76 113 71 96
86 Cody Ross 84 78 112 88
87 Peter Bourjos 88 83 101 92
88 Will Venable 87 73 96 110
89 Justin Ruggiano 88 66 79 117
90 Juan Pierre 89 52 94 116
91 Delmon Young 90 85 89 90
92 Oswaldo Arcia 75 104 116 73
93 Darin Ruf 76 121 85 64
94 Cameron Maybin 86 71 98 118
95 Lucas Duda 91 93 97 103
96 Kelly Johnson 92 107 108 70
97 Aaron Hicks 77 116 82 109
98 David DeJesus 78 84 106 100
99 Gregor Blanco 97 121 93 86
100 Ryan Doumit 98 102 86 112
101 David Lough 85 121 103 93
102 Chris Denorfia 86 100 118 74
103 Seth Smith 87 114 102 75
104 Trevor Plouffe 95 95 109 108
105 Josh Willingham 96 91 104 102
106 Evan Gattis 97 121 91 81
107 Chris Young 98 105 105 106
108 Rajai Davis 99 80 107 121
109 Ben Revere 100 97 121 97
110 J.D. Martinez 96 99 110 121
111 Jarrod Dyson 97 115 113 84
112 John Mayberry 98 117 83 111
113 Dustin Ackley 99 87 121 121
114 Kensuke Tanaka 100 121 121 80
115 Travis Snider 101 101 99 121
116 Emilio Bonifacio 94 112 114 121
117 Mike Carp 95 119 121 85
118 Jose Tabata 93 109 120 121
119 Tyler Colvin 94 110 121 121
120 Billy Hamilton 95 121 121 115
121 Chris Parmelee 96 121 121 120

Also ranked once were Engel Beltre, Jeff Francoeur, Corey Dickerson, Jeff Kobernus, Endy Chavez, Xavier Paul, Brett Jackson, Scott Hairston, Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes, Jason Bay, A.J. Pollock and Franklin Gutierrez.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


52 Responses to “All Star Break Consensus Ranks: Outfielders”

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  1. Dandy Salderson says:

    Carlos Gomez has been playing at this level for about 185 games now. Ridiculously under rated.

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      I don’t believe in his batting average, but yeah even then I could have put him anywhere from 18 to 25, which means he could have moved into the top 20. Obviously the power and speed are real.

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      • Mario Mendoza says:

        But still lower than Heyward?

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      • Backdoor Slider says:

        From July last year to July this year, Gomez hit .292/28 HRs/49 SBs/100 runs.
        At what point to people start believing? You think he should be top 20?
        Ummm…how bout top 5.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Last calendar year split on our site produces a .288 average with a .335 BABIP and a 22.4% strikeout rate. Only Chris Davis has a better batting average with a worse strikeout rate, and he still gets doubt. And BABIP takes 2.5 years to stabilize. And his career BABIP is .310. So, no, I don’t believe in the batting average right now.

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      • Backdoor Slider says:

        Ok so let’s say he’s a .275 hitter. If that goes with ~25-30 HRs, ~100 runs, ~40-50 SBs, he’s still an elite, top 5 OF.

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  2. chri521 says:

    Assuming the legend is ES = Eno, MP = Pod, JZ = Zimm and ZS = Sanders?

    Also seeing Cruz and Sori moved green a lot, is that because of the possibility of no suspension and trade (in addition to recent improved performance of course) was factored in?

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  3. Bert Ernie says:

    In what year was Jeff Francoeur “(a)lso ranked once,” and was he higher or lower than Corey Patterson?

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  4. SB says:

    Chris Carter 13 spots below Lorenzo Cain? Is it the extreme upside or the excellent real-life production that scares you? Or is it his consistent playing time (as opposed to Cain, who now finds himself in a 4-way rotation)?

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    • ncb says:

      maybe the sub .240 BA and 0 SBs?

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      That one’s easy. Without looking, one of the worst strikeout rates in the league, and a high BABIP, and a history of being much better v LHP.

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      • SB says:

        His walk rate is pretty good, though. I think you over-inflate the importance of strikeout rate (as well as velocity in closers, but that’s another story). Also, if his splits have reversed this season, wouldn’t it stand to reason that his numbers could actually IMPROVE if he starts having the success against lefties that he’s used to? You’re pointing to his historical platoon splits while discounting the success he’s had against righties this year. Second year players have been known to show improvement. I’m not saying he’s a perfect player, but he’s shown huge power throughout his career, he mashed in Oakland last season, he’s mashing this season (with the potential for more), and you’ve got a guy who’s done none of the above 13 spots ahead of him. That’s really the issue. Lorenzo Cain has done nothing (outside of swiping a few bags) compared to Carter. We’ll see how it shakes out ROS but I think that one’s going to look dumb in retrospect.

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      • Travis L says:

        Chris Carter, career splits.

        112 wRC+ versus righties
        106 wRC+ versus lefties

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      • SB says:

        Yeah, I see that Travis L (112 wRC+ versus righties, 106 wRC+ versus lefties). Then I’m not sure what Eno meant by “a history of being much better v LHP.” Maybe he meant RHP. I don’t know. One other thing about Carter and then I’ll shut up — he’s actually hit for more power on the road this season but I’m pretty sure Minute Maid inflates homerun rate. Just think there’s room for quite a bit of growth there and he’s playing well now.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Just mean that strikeouts are the problem for him, across the board, and he’s worse in that regard against righties (36.8) versus lefties (29.8) and that’s why Oakland only played him against lefties for the most part.

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  5. bradley newman says:

    Eno: I hope JZ appreciates that you got his back.

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  6. Kaline's Ghost says:

    Waiting for someone to blast Zimmerman for ranking K-Marte ahead of Crush . . .

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  7. Mario Mendoza says:

    Heyward optimism!

    “Holiday, Bruce, Heyward,” or “Holiday, Bruce…….. Heyward”

    Bottom of a good tier, or top of an iffy tier

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  8. ncb says:

    Question: How did JZ determine Puig’s rankings? I don’t see complete STEAMER projections or any ZiPS.

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  9. Paul says:

    I’m glad you have Holliday ahead of Craig, even though I got seemingly raped in that trade. Hopefully Matt has a great 2nd half!

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  10. Dan Out West says:

    What happened to the 3rd base rankings – cannot locate them (C, 1B, 2B, and SS are listed).

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  11. Jeff says:

    Thanks for posting these, as I trust the Fangraphs rankings above anyone else’s.
    ZS, can you explain why so low on B.J. Upton? I realize the misery of the first half, but the discrepancy is pretty big.

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  12. KillahYeast says:

    Just for fun, I looked at the range for the rankings to see who do you four disagree with each other most about and who you disagree with each other least about. The top-10 aren’t interesting for this because of small divergence. Anywho…
    What players have the highest range of rankings: Daniel Nava, Raul Ibanez, B.J. Upton, Juan Pierre, Matt Carpenter, Darin Ruf, Justin Ruggiano, and Nate McLouth.
    What players (not in the top-10) have the lowest range of rankings: Allen Craig, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Adam Eaton, Denard Span, Alex Rios, Adam Dunn.

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  13. Tommy John says:

    Just a quick question for clarification: How come no one is ranked 7th in the JZ column? Is that just a clerical error, or did JZ rank someone in the top 10 that no one else ranked at all (and if so, who, and why)? Or am I missing something…?

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  14. Schiraldi says:

    Which outfielder did Zimmerman’s computer rank seventh? It looks as if it was someone who was not among the top 121 players. (Or possibly I am blind and just missing it?)

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  15. Jim Dwyer says:

    Marlon Byrd has been hitting all year and isn’t ranked in the top 120 by anyone? I know its Marlon Byrd but he’s been helping me out a lot in a 14 team league

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  16. Jason B says:

    Josh Hamilton – 19th to 67th amongst the rankers. Such is the potentially exhilirating, often cringe-inducing experience of owning Josh Hamilton!

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    • Funny, as I was driving the bust train this preseason and he obviously has done nothing to convince me otherwise. BUT, I had him 15th preseason, so 19 is a further drop from an already pessimistic opinion. Looks like others are even more pessimistic than me, which makes me think he could be acquired rather cheaply.

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  17. Jon L. says:

    Why are JZ’s rankings so blah blah blah…

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  18. Alexander says:

    Eno, this doesn’t probably belong here, but I clicked on that mock draft you did earlier in the year and you drafted one hell of a team.

    Shelby Miller – 23rd round
    Jean Segura – 20th round
    Starling Marte – 17th round
    Matt Harvey – 14th round
    Joe Nathan – 9th round

    I think you just flew to the top of my ‘trusted’ analysts list.

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  19. Blockhead says:

    Thanks for the full JZ explanation. I think it’s good to have a reasonable baseline ranking in there but I also agree more thought/work should be put into playing time for JZ’s rankings.

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  20. Riley says:

    How different do you think the rankings would be if you used OBP instead of average? Anyone who jumps out that would be significantly different (up or down)?

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  21. Billy says:

    I own Puig in a redraft but don’t quite buy the production in the second half. Been offered James Shields and Starlin Castro for him (both positions of need for me). Should I take it?

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  22. guy who knows where the beds are says:

    Dom, Dom, Dom

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  23. BJ Upton says:

    Damn, Zach. What did I ever do to you?

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  24. JR Ewing says:

    I guess my big issue with the #25 ranking for Gomez is Puig being ranked above him. Gomez has put up top-10 numbers over the last 12-month period. Yes he’s gotten lucky, but he is outranked by a guy with almost a .500 BABIP over a few weeks of an MLB career? A guy with a similar k%? I guess that seems like a discrepancy to me. I see you forecast them with pretty similar BA, OBP, SLG so I get ranking them relatively close, but to me the floor for Puig is a lot lower (much higher risk) and lack of sample size can’t be the main argument against Gomez. Just my two cents of course. Appreciate what you fellas do. #buttkissing ;)

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  25. nilbog44 says:

    Why is Dominic Brown so low? Also, Jason Heyward above Allan Craig seems completely ridiculous to me.

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    • Dingbat says:

      Looks like insufficient playing time in Dom’s projections is playing a role. For reference, ZiPS projects him to look a lot like Cespedes ROS:

      YC: .259/36/10/33/5
      DB: .268/27/10/31/5

      But Steamer has a bigger difference between the two (largely driven by playing time):

      YC: .264/29/10/33/5
      DB: .269/19/ 6/22/3

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  26. Bill Brunk says:

    Can someone please explain Billy Hamilton at 120? The big question coming into the season was “can he get on base?” Well he’s batting .282 with 38 SBs so I’d say he’s doing just fine. Walk rate and BABIP suggest some decline but Peter Bourjos is ranked 33 spots ahead of him (just one example). Why???

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