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All Star Break Consensus Ranks: Outfielders

Posted By Eno Sarris On July 17, 2013 @ 2:45 pm In Outfielders,Rankings,Uncategorized | 52 Comments

My ideal set of rankings has input from both human and computer sources. In our rankings, we have one set of ranks that are built on projections, meaning that overall our rankings are 25% computer. That’s low for me. But I know that our other three human rankers also use the computer projections to varying degrees, so the number is probably closer to 50% computer, which I like.

But, ostensibly, we have one computer ranker. Jeff Zimmerman uses a proprietary mix of ZiPs and Steamer projections, and then takes the plate appearance projections from our depth charts. Every once in a while a player won’t be updated on the depth charts — human error — but if we stay vigilant, this mix should produce the best computer-generated rankings you can find. The addition of depth chart information can do a lot to undo the biggest flaw in projections: they don’t always know who has the job.

One remaining avenue to deal with with respect to the computer rankings is what to do with the missing plate appearances due to projected injury. Zimmerman has done a lot to advance the state of injury projections, and some of that is now built into the various projections he uses. We know that past DL stints predict future ones, for example. And that age is a heavy factor. But once those PAs and IPs are gone, they can be replaced through the waiver wire.

That opens up a whole can of worms. Are we to give an injured player credit for the player that replaces him? Who will that replacement player be? Are you on weekly waivers, or daily? Do you have an FAAB? That would suggest that late-season injuries are more harmful to your team. Same for head-to-head leagues. Seemingly, we should ding a player for getting hurt a lot. But we should also maybe work on finding some way to replace back some of those missed innings and plate appearances with a replacement level number. We’ll work on that.

As for naming Zimmerman’s column something else, I don’t get it. We all use projections in the pre-season, should we just name our pre-season rankings after the projections we’re using? And even in-season, we’re looking at all the information we can. I’d hate to name my projections swSTR%GB%battedballdistanceBABIPspeed, for example. Jeff Zimmerman does the work, Jeff Zimmerman‘s name is on the ranking.

So. Do we have some work we can do? Sure, we’ve been looking at replacement level. We need to make sure our depth charts are all updated going into ranking seasons. These rankings have been gradually evolving since we started them, and they will continue to do so.

But I would say we are well on our way to an ideal set of rankings from an ideological standpoint. At least my ideological standpoint.

I welcome discussion on a theoretical level. Every set of rankings ever is subject to arguments about single players. We won’t eradicate those discussions — they’re fun! — but they are not necessarily germane to the issue at hand.

Thanks for reading!

With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto. Jeff Zimmerman‘s rankings are a combination of ZiPs and Steamer rest-of-season projections with playing time determined by our depth charts. You can find the projections on every player page and the depth charts here.


RG Player ES JZ MP ZS
1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 2
2 Carlos Gonzalez 2 3 2 3
3 Andrew McCutchen 3 4 4 4
4 Ryan Braun 8 2 3 7
5 Adam Jones 4 5 7 6
6 Chris Davis 6 19 5 1
7 Bryce Harper 7 13 8 5
8 Jose Bautista 10 11 6 8
9 Giancarlo Stanton 5 8 10 14
10 Justin Upton 9 9 11 17
11 Shin-Soo Choo 12 12 18 9
12 Jacoby Ellsbury 11 15 9 19
13 Adrian Gonzalez 15 18 20 11
14 Alex Rios 19 17 17 12
15 Matt Holliday 20 16 12 18
16 Jay Bruce 14 14 16 28
17 Jason Heyward 16 28 14 20
18 Matt Kemp 23 24 15 25
19 Yasiel Puig 17 6 35 30
20 Yoenis Cespedes 18 26 13 31
21 Allen Craig 24 22 22 24
22 Starling Marte 13 10 27 43
23 Nelson Cruz 27 29 23 15
24 Alex Gordon 26 23 25 22
25 Carlos Gomez 25 38 24 10
26 Carlos Beltran 30 34 21 13
27 Desmond Jennings 22 21 26 34
28 Hunter Pence 31 25 33 23
29 Austin Jackson 34 33 32 21
30 Michael Bourn 21 20 43 37
31 Mark Trumbo 29 35 36 27
32 Shane Victorino 28 31 31 41
33 Norichika Aoki 35 30 40 33
34 Michael Cuddyer 31 39 34 35
35 Ben Zobrist 38 41 29 36
36 Dexter Fowler 37 44 48 16
37 Nick Markakis 39 46 37 29
38 Josh Hamilton 32 42 19 67
39 Alejandro De Aza 36 37 47 44
40 Carl Crawford 41 55 30 42
41 Domonic Brown 40 54 28 50
42 Jayson Werth 43 56 38 39
43 Martin Prado 44 47 52 38
44 Melky Cabrera 55 40 57 32
45 Coco Crisp 33 43 55 59
46 Adam Eaton 51 51 50 45
47 Torii Hunter 47 45 59 56
48 Ichiro Suzuki 56 32 45 76
49 Alfonso Soriano 49 48 49 65
50 Curtis Granderson 42 49 39 83
51 Brett Gardner 50 58 44 61
52 Nick Swisher 54 60 46 58
53 Wil Myers 57 57 68 40
54 B.J. Upton 48 36 41 101
55 Adam Dunn 53 53 60 60
56 Matt Carpenter 46 89 65 26
57 Michael Brantley 45 50 66 66
58 Matt Joyce 52 68 74 48
59 Josh Reddick 65 70 62 54
60 Gerardo Parra 66 62 70 55
61 Todd Frazier 60 72 53 68
62 Lorenzo Cain 59 75 42 79
63 Jon Jay 74 59 78 46
64 David Murphy 62 77 63 62
65 Nate McLouth 69 98 51 47
66 Garrett Jones 61 61 95 57
67 Leonys Martin 64 82 56 72
68 Colby Rasmus 67 64 81 63
69 Marcell Ozuna 58 67 88 77
70 Jason Kubel 70 79 58 87
71 Logan Morrison 63 96 84 51
72 Andre Ethier 68 65 77 91
73 Carlos Quentin 71 88 73 69
74 Dayan Viciedo 80 69 61 98
75 Chris Carter 81 74 76 78
76 Daniel Nava 78 120 64 49
77 Michael Morse 72 90 54 99
78 Raul Ibanez 79 121 67 52
79 Denard Span 82 76 80 82
80 Brandon Moss 90 86 75 71
81 Andy Dirks 73 92 87 89
82 Michael Saunders 83 94 69 95
83 Nate Schierholtz 89 103 100 53
84 Drew Stubbs 92 81 72 107
85 Eric Young 76 113 71 96
86 Cody Ross 84 78 112 88
87 Peter Bourjos 88 83 101 92
88 Will Venable 87 73 96 110
89 Justin Ruggiano 88 66 79 117
90 Juan Pierre 89 52 94 116
91 Delmon Young 90 85 89 90
92 Oswaldo Arcia 75 104 116 73
93 Darin Ruf 76 121 85 64
94 Cameron Maybin 86 71 98 118
95 Lucas Duda 91 93 97 103
96 Kelly Johnson 92 107 108 70
97 Aaron Hicks 77 116 82 109
98 David DeJesus 78 84 106 100
99 Gregor Blanco 97 121 93 86
100 Ryan Doumit 98 102 86 112
101 David Lough 85 121 103 93
102 Chris Denorfia 86 100 118 74
103 Seth Smith 87 114 102 75
104 Trevor Plouffe 95 95 109 108
105 Josh Willingham 96 91 104 102
106 Evan Gattis 97 121 91 81
107 Chris Young 98 105 105 106
108 Rajai Davis 99 80 107 121
109 Ben Revere 100 97 121 97
110 J.D. Martinez 96 99 110 121
111 Jarrod Dyson 97 115 113 84
112 John Mayberry 98 117 83 111
113 Dustin Ackley 99 87 121 121
114 Kensuke Tanaka 100 121 121 80
115 Travis Snider 101 101 99 121
116 Emilio Bonifacio 94 112 114 121
117 Mike Carp 95 119 121 85
118 Jose Tabata 93 109 120 121
119 Tyler Colvin 94 110 121 121
120 Billy Hamilton 95 121 121 115
121 Chris Parmelee 96 121 121 120

Also ranked once were Engel Beltre, Jeff Francoeur, Corey Dickerson, Jeff Kobernus, Endy Chavez, Xavier Paul, Brett Jackson, Scott Hairston, Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes, Jason Bay, A.J. Pollock and Franklin Gutierrez.


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