All Star Break Consensus Ranks: Shortstop

There’s some decent movement in the shortstop rankings.

A lot of the movement was a long time coming. Larger samples have made the starts by Jean Segura, Everth Cabrera and Jed Lowrie more believable. Segura’s batting average came back to earth, but there are more reasons to believe in his power now. Everth Cabrera still doesn’t have any power, and is pretty bad with the glove, but his new contact rate now comes in a bigger sample now. Maybe he isn’t doomed to hit .250+ going forward. Jed Lowrie has managed to avoid catastrophic injury too. He’s one or two games away from a career high in plate appearances!

There’s still some hope for the droppers, but there’s a decent theme running through some of them. Starlin Castro, Elvis Andrus, Alcides Escobar, Andrelton Simmons: these are young men that seemed to be on one trajectory that have taken a step back. Is it a half-season step back, or do we have to recalibrate what we expect for them for the rest of their careers? Those questions seem worth in-depth looks.

It does look like the shortstops have proven that they are once again the worst offensive position. Catchers can complain, second basemen had their chances, but shortstops… having to roster Yunel Escobar in a 15-teamer with an MI slot has got to be painful.

With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto. Jeff Zimmerman‘s rankings are a combination of ZiPs and Steamer rest-of-season projections with playing time determined by our depth charts. You can find the projections on every player page and the depth charts here.


RG Player ES JZ MP ZS
1 Troy Tulowitzki 1 3 1 1
2 Jose Reyes 2 1 3 3
3 Ian Desmond 3 4 4 2
4 Hanley Ramirez 4 2 2 7
5 Jean Segura 5 6 5 5
6 Ben Zobrist 7 8 6 8
7 Starlin Castro 8 5 7 10
8 Everth Cabrera 6 16 9 6
9 Asdrubal Cabrera 9 14 8 9
10 Elvis Andrus 10 7 10 14
11 Jimmy Rollins 14 13 11 12
12 Alexei Ramirez 16 10 12 15
13 Jed Lowrie 12 26 15 4
14 Martin Prado 11 9 19 19
15 J.J. Hardy 17 17 16 17
16 Nick Franklin 13 30 14 13
17 Erick Aybar 22 15 23 11
18 Alcides Escobar 15 12 20 25
19 Jhonny Peralta 21 20 17 18
20 Brad Miller 18 24 13 22
21 Andrelton Simmons 19 18 21 28
22 Derek Jeter 20 19 18 31
23 Zack Cozart 27 23 25 29
24 Didi Gregorius 24 41 22 20
25 Brandon Crawford 23 40 29 16
26 Yunel Escobar 30 22 27 30
27 Jurickson Profar 31 27 36 21
28 Mike Aviles 32 25 37 23
29 Stephen Drew 26 39 26 27
30 Jordy Mercer 25 41 30 26
31 Josh Rutledge 29 29 35 35
32 Ruben Tejada 33 33 41 24
33 Jose Iglesias 28 41 31 32
34 Brian Dozier 33 38 28 34
35 Danny Espinosa 37 21 41 41
36 Cliff Pennington 34 28 41 40
37 Grant Green 39 31 38 37
38 Maicer Izturis 32 41 39 36
39 Eric Sogard 34 41 41 33
40 Pedro Florimon 36 41 33 41
41 Dee Gordon 38 32 41 41
42 Daniel Descalso 36 34 41 41
43 Marwin Gonzalez 40 41 32 39
44 Billy Hamilton 35 41 41 38

Also ranked once were Adeiny Hechavarria and Rafael Furcal.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


53 Responses to “All Star Break Consensus Ranks: Shortstop”

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  1. Scott says:

    Rollins seems low but my only argument to rank him higher is track record and his 2nd half from 2012. He always ends up a top 5 SS in 5×5.

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    • Cliff says:

      Only issue with Rollins is that he doesn’t hit for average anymore, his power is more or less gone, and he doesn’t run anymore either. Throw in the atrocious offense taking a crap on his run and RBI totals….

      Outside of that, He’s got all the makings of a top-5 SS

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  2. Broken record says:

    I’ve pointed this out multiple times, but it would be really nice to get Marco Scutaro added to these SS rankings.

    He’s eligible, and he keeps getting left out, and you are ruining what should be a big week for him because he’s finally getting that all-star nod but all he can think about is why won’t Fangraphs rank me?

    Maybe just tell us where he would have ranked, and try to add him for next time?

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  3. wainman says:

    Ranking Segura 5th while claiming him “a New Jose Reyes” in another article is… strange timing to say the least.

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    • Giovani says:

      This does not include the rankings of the gentleman who wrote the Jose Reyes comparison article, and in that article he made it clear he was not calling him the new Jose Reyes despite a lot of similarities. I’m going to go ahead and call this a double reading comprehension fail.

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  4. ashtray says:

    That’s some tough ranking on Franklin, JZ.

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    • LJ says:

      Nah, give me Cliff Pennington every time… *eye roll*

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    • David says:

      You know JZimm, if you just took your name off that column header and replaced it with “Proj ROS” or some such, it would save a lot of negative commentary…

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  5. Steve says:

    Jed Lowrie has done more than enough to deserve a better ranking then the one he has here

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    • JT Grace says:

      Looks like Jeff Zimmerman is responsible for a lot of that. He ranks him 26th while ZS has him 4th overall.

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    • Dancing Homer says:

      Well, what he has never done in seasons past is be on a baseball field for the majority of games, which explains ZIPS/Steamer taking a cautious approach, which drags down his consensus ranking here. Pull that ranking by assuming his first healthy season ever, and you see rankings from ES and ZS and that puts him in the top 10. That feels right. He’s not a top 5 SS no matter how healthy.

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    • Tim says:

      Lowrie would be much more valuable in an OBP league. The concern is injury, a BABIP drop and a tough hitters park.

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  6. JT Grace says:

    I would imagine that this 1st half is just a blip on the radar for Elvis Andrus. He isn’t old and shouldn’t be declining.

    Simmons still hasn’t finished a full season of MLB service time yet so there’s hope that he can return more to last year’s numbers than what he has shown thus far this season.

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  7. Giovani says:

    I’m very curious to hear the reasoning behind Lowrie at 4 from ZS. I like the guy, and he plays better in non-traditional scoring, but I feel like the lack of HRs and SBs keeps him from being top-4 in standard 5×5.

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    • Kaline's Ghost says:

      Is dealing Tulo straight up for Segura in a keeper insanity? If so, for wchih side?

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      • Kevin says:

        You still have to keep Tulo, but Segura + a smaller piece could probably get it done. Tulo’s injury history has scared me away in pretty much every league I play in. I need my big expenditures/early round picks to be the least risky, not the most.

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    • batpig says:

      Agreed, this seems like one of the most inexplicable rankings on the entire list. Lowrie is fine but this is FANTASY, and he doesn’t hit for elite AVG, doesn’t steal any bases, and has OK power. #4 seems craaaaazy.

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  8. jon says:

    Franklin or Rendon for an MI spot in 10-team roto with AVG and OPS plus all the usual hitting cats?

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    • STEALTH says:

      That’s a tough call, and I’d project them to be close in overall value. Franklin will have higher SB numbers while Rendon wins in AVG. I guess it depends on what you need. I’d lean Rendon if I didn’t need steals, Franklin if I did.

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  9. Ugh says:

    When is Zimmerman going to be removed from these rankings?

    Rutledge, despite having a terrible season and only playing about every other day, is not only rosterable but a must-start according to him because ZiPs RoS told him so!

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  10. DoubleJ says:

    Zimmerman’s rankings of Lowrie and Rutledge I find the most interesting. Is it that ZIPS and Steamer RoS put more wight on their pre-season projections than than actual season to date stats?

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  11. pudieron89 says:

    starlin is done (this season)

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  12. steex says:

    Constructive thing people can do instead of complaining about JZ:

    1) Copy entire table into Excel
    2) Delete the column with JZ
    3) Create a new column averaging the ES, MP, and ZS columns
    4) Sort ascending according to that new column
    5) Enjoy your JZ-free rankings
    6) Stop complaining about the work other people provided you for free

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    • STEALTH says:

      7) Accept a flawed output and don’t give constructive criticism?

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      • steex says:

        “Flawed” is an opinion not shared by all, though. My solution is to easily take that “flawed” output and turn it into the output desired by the people who don’t like JZ’s rankings, and it takes less than one minute if you know how to use Excel at all.

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    • Ugh says:

      Yes, it’s a simple fix as you point out.

      However, I’m not the one getting paid to put this together and I shouldn’t have to fix a such a blatantly flawed product.

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      • steex says:

        And yet some people prefer the rankings with JZ’s input included, so we can hardly call the opinion that they are blatantly flawed universal. Personally, I think it’s better to provide more information and allow users who want less to filter some out than to leave out information that some users will wish they had.

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      • Ruki Motomiya says:

        Just because some people prefer the rankings with JZ’s input does not tell us if it is flawed or not. What we can say, judging from the number of comments, is that more people think it is flawed than people think it is not and that we do not have numerical evidence to decide if the methodology is flawed or not.

        What I do think is :

        1. It should be listed as CPU instead of JZ. Because it isn’t JZ’s thoughts, it is a combination of projections. Even if JZ makes them, they still aren’t HIS rankings. Personally, I’d like to see it as a 5th column with JZ (or someone else if he would not want to) providing their own opinions in addition to it.
        2. He needs to adjust for playing time, since this is something projection systems do not always do and thus can heavily throw the ZIPS/Steamer combo out of whack (Like Rutledge).

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        For #1… we all use projection systems in the pre-season for our rankings, should we change our names then too? I feel like it’s his proprietary blend of two projection systems, a depth chart, and a value calculator… I’m fine with him putting his name on it.

        #2 I tackled below, but the use of depth charts for PAs should account for playing time in one way. If you’re talking about assigning replacement level production to the missing PAs in a projection, I’m not comfortable with that, at least not yet. You’re giving value to a player based on a fictional waiver wire you know nothing about.

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    • jfree says:

      7)Make a New Year’s resolution to finally pay the folk’s rent for the basement and get a real-life girlfriend to replace the blow-up doll.

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  13. STEALTH says:

    Here’s another vote for removing the Zimmerman rankings. I understand the approach, but when Jeff’s results say Josh Rutledge over Everth Cabrera and Danny Espinosa over Jed Lowrie, we can see how terribly flawed the system projections are at this point of the season. I love ZiPS and Steamer; they’re very helpful on a case by case basis. However, this is a rough exercise to place on projection systems. Please leave them out next time.

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    • Dancing Homer says:

      ZIPS/Steamer are useful in these rankings. They provide a bit of historical context for players who are either riding too high or haven’t hit their stride yet. If you removed them, it’s basically just a barometer of who’s performances are better than others in the moment, and we can all already do that on our own. We know that Jed Lowrie has actually been decently healthy, and when that happens he puts up numbers. The problem that Zimmerman’s rankings points out: Lowrie has never, ever, not even for one season, been healthy. Do you really want to just forget that this is a guy who has averaged a mere 250 at bats a season? It’s a checks and balances to just analyzing up-to-date performance and I find it completely useful. You’re supposed to look at this and draw your own conclusions. You like Lowrie more than the rest of these guys? Awesome, go trade for him. I like the calculated approach to one of the ranks. It forgets about name-based bias and strictly looks at performance, past and present. That’s useful, no?

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      • Ruki Motomiya says:

        The problem comes from the fact that it does not strictly look at performance, past and present, especially in the case of younger players or players who have a well known playing time change.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Except that he uses our depth charts for PAs, so playing time changes should be accounted for. In a couple of these cases, the depth chart changed recently and that affected his numbers. As for skill changes, projection systems (for the most part successfully) argue that we see changes where they aren’t for the most part.

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  14. Benzedrine says:

    Zobrist is frustrating at times with his 0-fors, not even walking in a lot of games. I found Yunel Escobar useful as a fill-in MI against lefties.

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  15. derek says:

    Do you give up Segura and Hamels for Kipnis, Stanton, Iwakuma in a keeper league. I need Homeruns but could keep Segura as a 15th round pick. I have Everth Cabrera as well to replace him but he may be suspended in the near future.

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  16. Josh M says:

    Hardy getting no love

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  17. Tak says:

    Jhonny Peralta seems criminally low…

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  18. Andrew says:

    Where is Derek Dietrich?

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  19. Hmmbug says:

    Ridiculous. The number 15 is a starter at the All-Star Game.

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  20. Mark says:

    The fact that Zimmerman stubbornly sticks with his mediocre (at best) projection system strikes me as snobbish and lazy. He needs to be taken out of next year’s column.

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    • Cybo says:

      Rutledge is a great example of JZ’s flawed methodology. We know hes not playing everyday, we know JZ knows hes not playing everyday. Why is it so hard to adjust for this knowledge in his rankings? I don’t think he’s being lazy but stubborn certainly seems like it fits. Using his system when doing your consensus rankings, all the while knowing said system has notable flaws, seems counterproductive. I’m sure a lot of work goes into these rankings from all involved and ultimately they’re being somewhat ruined by ignoring such obvious flaws. I really don’t think I can take your consensus rankings seriously anymore.

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  21. Simon says:

    I have an idea. Why don’t you do an article at the end of the year looking at whose predictions are most accurate? If JZ’s are as good as the expert opinions of the other rankers, then keep him in, and ban whining comments about the evil computers. If you find his rankings are not up to scratch, then replace him with someone else.

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  22. Eno Sarris says:

    I want Jeff Zimmerman, and his computer projection based rankings, in as 1/4 of the ranks here. I think it’s awesome to see what the numbers say. At 25%, that’s even low for input, IMO, but I’ll take it. And naming it something different doesn’t matter to me. I use 1/3 ZiPs, 1/3 Steamer, 1/3 me… should I rename my projections ZiPStEno? Silly.

    Playing time is an issue in projections. So David Appelman created the depth charts on this site, updated by humans. Zimmerman ran his projections and rankings right before the Rox depth chart was updated. So he re-ran them after this ran, and Rut-Rut dropped to 29.

    That changed his overall ranking from 27 to 31. Much ado about nothing if you ask me.

    All we can do is be better at spotting issues in the depth charts, and then I don’t see why there’s a problem with Zimmerman’s rankings. Depth charts get at the playing time, projections handle the rest. Perhaps we humans can get ahead of skill changes, perhaps not. Carpenter is low because projections systems don’t think he can keep up the high BABIP, whether or not we think his oppo power and batted ball mix might allow him to. We often see what we want to in the numbers. That’s why I want humans and computers working together.

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  23. Zach says:

    To everyone who is whining about JZ’s rankings:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzqCFL5To3M

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. supgreg says:

    Scutaro?

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